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"No, some industries are simple, some have low gearing,
and some have more crooks than others."
Such wisdom, well worth sharing. Lol
HarChris lol, do you hear that squid boy. :-)
Squid are invertebrates so technically not fish.
Calamari, all industries are complex, highly geared and full of crooks. Crypto is a new phenomenon, it will take a decade at least for it to stabilise, meanwhile, enjoy the fluctuations.
After this bear run, the miners still standing will get an even larger market share. Let me be the first to tell you, ARB will be one of them.
The people here, who think ARB is in a bad position, understand nothing of Helios. Argo thought ahead of the curve, don’t be fooled by the derampers, they are scaremongering for their short.
Imho DYOR calamari is a fish :-)
If the directors had confidence in ARB share price then why have they changed their package from receiving shares to receiving a salary? (rather than a combo)? ---- is it £75k or $75k for nodding and smiling at PW?
It was interesting that PW said they could 'lean in or lean out' on the Intel order which I took to mean that delaying at least some of the intel order is not only possible but very much on the radar. They sounded bullish on getting more loans but I'm not sure what they have left to secure them against (maybe the intel machines)? They could (maybe) get unsecured loans but the terms wouldn't be great.
Personally I think managing cash and liabilities is key at the moment so would favour delaying machines over taking on more debt.
Yes and a lot of it is out of Argo’s hands, the main factor is how long and how severe is the bear market going to be and the decisions made by mgmt now can either be prudent (like dumping all their BTC and holding off kitting out Helios to bolster the cash balance) or more risk taking (take on more debt in the hope bitcoin rallies soon).
We’ll soon start to see what sort of conviction these miners have.
“So not surviving the bear market in one piece doesn't mean bankruptcy ?“
Correct.
HarChris
"bankruptcy is not the concern right now, it's surviving the bear market in one piece so as to see a share price recovery on the flip side ."
So not surviving the bear market in one piece doesn't mean bankruptcy ?
Btc can probably go a good bit lower as 85% off ath is like 10.5 k. I think the asset class is new and people get scared of "firsts" - like it dropping down below it's previous ATH. It will have lots of firsts still i think
All the leverage coming out of the market is a good thing in the long run and necessary. Something like 2 percent of the world hold btc at the moment so lots of room to grow.
With regards to "Once regulated what advantage does it have over other currencies?" - well it has a fixed supply and isnt issued by a government. Probably it's strongest quality apart from being able to have it in self custody
Unfortunately HC most of the logic used to predict BTC price is so full of gaping holes you could drive a fleet of trucks through it.
I just take the view that BTC is around to stay and so long-term price is not something I am too worried about but on the other hand I don't have any big expectation that it's going to the moon. Even that could be wrong though in which case I lose and that's that.
In the meantime no amount of soothsaying, TA, hope or fear can tell you what BTC is going to do next. So pulling out of Corz and Riot could prove inspired or foolish. Maybe if in doubt do half!?
British Mike - I think you can be "high level" and see the obvious answer. When the USD devalues along with most major currencies creating mass insecurity over the value of "money" and "assets" do you think at this moment, the public will rush to buy Bitcoin??? haha!!!! clearly not!!! 2. Will Govts actively tell people they need to buy Bitcoin??? Again. Ridiculous. The masses are not buying Bitcoin. not now or ever. You have therefore a limited Ponzi Scheme. Any Crypto fan will tell you that every time there is a dip, more people buy in and that corrections are great as more folks get involved. errrmm realllly?!!! For all of BTCs "cleverness" it is best to stay big picture to see the obvious IMO. There is no utility here whatsoever.
I agree that we should be concerned with this drop Hexam. First of all there was real conviction about the supercycle, of institutional investment breaking the normal four year bitcoin cycle. Then as bitcoin fell and that theory was thrown out the narrative changed but lows of ~$25k were forecasted, instead it went considerably lower to $17k and still a few weeks on BTC is below $20k and threatening to retest that $17k mark.
I regret recently buying some Corz and Riot as there's a very real chance of a long drawn out downturn now that causes long term damage - I'm just hoping for a deadcat bounce to get out with some profit or a tiny loss although am tempted to take the hit now and sit out the next month and wait to see what moves the miners make next.
Wyndrum
"Is crypto actually going to survive as an investment class?"
Why not? More chance crypto becoming a recognised currency soon than the survival of the $. The $ has been over printed / abused that its days are numbered as a real currency.
"The first real test (market downturn) and instead of being an asset refuge its been the opposite."
So those who bought at $5 per coin before it went mad to $60k then down to $19400 (3,880% increase in value today) is not a store of wealth? Only mad people bought bitcoin at $1k+. Even if it dropped to $1k a coin it has still outperformed the USD
"It then raises the bigger question of what is the point of these currencies?"
The future once the $ collapses
"The wild swings cannot help it as an asset class. Its simply too risky. So then it needs to be regulated.
Once regulated what advantage does it have over other currencies?"
Undiluted currency to reset the world markets - this requires regulation first. El Salvador and Africa leading the way
Fair enough - just dealing in absolutes you almost sounded like a ramper ;-)
My big concern is a further, significant drop in BTC. That would really put ARB and many others in a very sticky position with lenders.
As it is most shouldn’t have too many problems so long as lenders don’t get really difficult.
The interims should give us a much clearer idea about how much headroom ARB has.
I think we're broadly in agreement. You then went on to say this:
'Of course even if ARB fall into a position where it looks like they won't have the funds to repay debts or post the necessary collateral they will have various options to try to deal with this (re-financing, equity raise etc.).'
I suppose I should have said very, very slim chance of bankruptcy rather than literally no threat but other than that we agree - bankruptcy is not the concern right now, it's surviving the bear market in one piece so as to see a share price recovery on the flip side .
I think its more fundamental than that.
Is crypto actually going to survive as an investment class?
The first real test (market downturn) and instead of being an asset refuge its been the opposite.
It then raises the bigger question of what is the point of these currencies?
The wild swings cannot help it as an asset class. Its simply too risky. So then it needs to be regulated.
Once regulated what advantage does it have over other currencies?
Certainly with some companies saying they are having trouble with securing the assets under their control only heightens the risk, which simply are not there with other traditional currencies.
This looks like the start of the demise to me till next halving, without Do Kwon doing his april pump and dump btc was in a downward trend then from May its been killed, think we have many many months of this type of price and lower , imho btc 12k lets see the landscape then if that happens.
However its clear to me and apparent that btc will continue to fall for now.
"there is literally no threat of bankruptcy for Argo for the considerable future"
That's a very bold statement and I can't really agree with it. Personally I think the chances of ARB going bust in the next 6 months or so are very, very slim but to rule it out completely seems a little cavalier to say the least.
The questions around loans, in particular the Galaxy Loan, were answered yesterday with a lot of waffle around hedging i.e. the questions weren't answered at all. The big threat to most miners, including ARB, is that loans cannot be repaid on time or the collateral required for existing loans cannot be met because the value of assets being used (both BTC and mining rigs) to back them has fallen so much.
In addition cash flow for ARB (and for most other miners I imagine) is negative at the moment BUT the amounts are relatively small in the scheme of things even if they shut down all the machines. So the threats are really driven by the loans and the attitudes of the lenders and these will obviously be intensified if BTC falls further.
Of course even if ARB fall into a position where it looks like they won't have the funds to repay debts or post the necessary collateral they will have various options to try to deal with this (re-financing, equity raise etc.).
The position on the loans and finances in general will become a lot clearer when the interims are posted but in the meantime I think completely dismissing the prospect of bankruptcy is unwise - especially if BTC falls further.
I agree but it's been below $25k for just two weeks, all feels a bit premature.
I think the miner with the lowest btc mined eh equivalent, lowest hodl and lowest cash reserves has multiple problems in a bear market. Add the liabilities and this continuing price and its all a ticking time bomb to oblivion.
Argo ticks a lot of those boxes for me x;)
Talk of Argo going under is scaremongering Chae, whilst times are obviously bleak for all miners there is literally no threat of bankruptcy for Argo for the considerable future. BTC would need to stay below $19k (and probably go even lower) for a substantially long period for there to be any threat to argo's existence.
What's actually important is if, in the likely event BTC recovers and another bull run ensues, Argo will be in a position to take advantage of it.. Will there be HODL to sell at $50k, at $60k, at $100k etc ? Will there be a bigger debt pile to service at high interest rates taking on during the bear market? Will the market get carried away with itself like in early 2021 or has the business model been found out?
The next three to six months will determine whether Argo ends up 50p a share on the flip side or £3+
I thought Argo Labs was all 'breakeven' lol x;)
The Pluto raise killed the share price volume and sentiment, the Argo Labs venture may finish the Company off entirely.
The equivalents numbers in argo labs are going to be interesting this month. Another large drop to compound the high all in cost to mine per btc at these levels surely cant continue.
Cheers fp, Domino effect coming ! This part is mad
The Singapore-based firm reportedly held $3 billion in assets in April, right before the rug was pulled from underneath the crypto industry, The Wall Street Journal notes. 3AC reportedly invested in the now nearly worthless cryptocurrency Luna as well as the Grayscale Bitcoin Trust in addition to Terra (also worthless) and Axie Infinity (robbed of more than $600 million) before that. However, like so many others entrenched in the plummeting industry, 3AC suffered as Bitcoin and Ethereum values fell in recent months. Bitcoin, in particular, recently dipped to its lowest point in a year and a half.