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Thanks for highlighting the error there, is helpful.
Do we know whats the plan with the money raised on the IPO? We know of course is to fund Texas but up to which stage? Is this information readily available within the past RNS perhaps? I have not had the time to go in full research to update myself, yet. I think once this questions are cleared and fear of further dilution is behind us, blue skyes ahead. IMO of course.
LTInv
No worries. I’ve done the same myself. I always double check figures now.
You are right, my mistake. I read it here from a “reliable” poster and just “parrot” it out. Lesson learnt. Ok, wow…
LTInv
“ And the fear of more dilutions, which is what I believe is keeping the SP where it is, 65% below ATH, while all the other miners are 10/20% above.”
RIOT -50%
MARA - 5%
HIVE -40%
Do you just guess your figures, or do you look them up and decide to use different ones?
Excellent posts, very informative, thanks 600 and all. As mentioned in another thread, the only piece of information to all those amazing numbers is funding of all those miners. And the fear of more dilutions, which is what I believe is keeping the SP where it is, 65% below ATH, while all the other miners are 10/20% above.
Nope wrong again la, actually thinking of the bigger picture for arb
Me thinks if I was desperate I’d say arb won’t survive the next bear cycle, but I didn’t say that did I. Because fair play to the previous current bod they got us through that previous bear cycle so kudos to them.
So the 2018 bear cycle eliminated a lot of miners, the miners that made it through that cycle created multiple innovative ways to.lower costs and maximise efficiency………again fair play to arb, desperate tones yet la?
Mate loads of new miners coming online and there is many that are coming online during a bull run that never normally works well long term.
So by this time in 2023 all these miners that can’t flourish in a bear cycle will probably go under , difficulty goes down and lots of mining machines on the markets. So going slowly with Texas fitting out 100mw 200 mw whatever it is….. the additional 600mw could be kitted out with all this excess. Sounds even more desperate lol
I’m a desperado !
Ha! You are sounding real desperate now @Chaebol. You are out of touch my dear boy!!!!
I think a lot of people are starting to agree with M Saylor from 6 mo ths ago, that the bear cycles are going to be changing
If miners keep hold of their hodle with the price rising like it is , it should keep them above water in the future
3.7 equihash next year is the equivalent Of what 1.85. Equihash is today……
A lot of miners won’t be surviving the next bear cycle……
If bitcoin travels north of 100k I think Argo should sell 80% of its Hodl to build out Texas. It would literally take 3 months to get the bitcoin back. Much like chess, you need to sacrfice pieces at times to get ahead of the game.
Good evening Lottohopes, I started drafting my post early this morning and only got back about 90 mins ago so it was a pretty rushed job, and definitely not checked the maths/facts. I try to err on the side of caution but am relying on memory (fatal in my case) with regard to immersion cooling let alone progress technologically where I am clueless). I do have high hopes that ePIC will come up with a blinder of a machine but with the speed of development, I just can't imagine how good the new machines will prove to be. It is, in my eyes, possible that we could deliver anything up to double what I have guestimated, so to some degree, it is a tad pointless. What it boils down to though is that Texas plus everything else in the pipeline tots up to a massive increase in revenue/profits and maybe prove to be best in class - and that is without our diversifications. ATB
@ 600
If argo has 3.7 EH the end of next year.
And the Expected EH of the miners is 300EH
We will have 1.233 % of hashrate, this will work out around 345 btc a month at the end of next year
600T: 71MW gives 1.7EH. But we expect the Texas facility to deliver higher clock rates. And our rough maths on hash rate vs coin generated has been consistently mismatched (on lower side) because of the rather high failure rate (35%!) of the Antminers purchased in 2020. I think those machines were Bitmain f ups. Note also that we bought into GPU-One (10% equity stake now), so the general model is full integration to capture maximum value. This will prove itself over the long term imho. Right now it’s a competition of whose is bigger ;)
@600 - It's nice to think about where this may all end up but I feel it's a bit premature to start counting all the possible chickens when we've only just started to build the hen house. Figures are still good to see though if only for the maximum potential.
However, I do think you should make allowance for increasing difficulty. As the excellent video posted by Flowerpot earlier today indicated the global hashrate will at least double over the next year based just on the machine orders from miners that are already known about.
I would also not like Saylor to have a $500m stake in the company as I doubt he'd do that as a friendly loan - more likely for a share of the profits i.e. one massive dilution.
So although it's nice to dream, the realist in me suggests evaluating each rig order (and any other event) as it becomes known and what we already know is probably good enough for starters!
Needless to say, we are hugely undervalued with Texas build money in the bank and producing 160 + BTC a month at a cost of approx. $8,000 per coin. We need to know how we will fund the rigs for Texas, knowing at least 20,000 are on order and due for delivery, I wonder whether Galaxy has already offered very competitive terms on this order. Bearing in
Since April 2021 we’ve averaged 180 coins mined a month:
Mar-21 165
Apr-21 163
May-21 166
Jun-21 167
Jul-21 225
Aug-21 206
Sep-21 165
with 45MW and 1075PH.
Argo's mining capacity is expected to be 1.7 Exahash by mid November 2021. That should equate to 71MW (58% higher). If we assume mining difficulty and efficiency remain the same, (I expect improvements overall), we should be mining at least 284 coins a month from November. Then with the 20,000 Bitmain Antminer S19J Pro machines now ordered and due in monthly batches from Q2 2022 through Q3 2022 we should reach 3.7 Exahash. That means that by the end of September 2022, these machines should use another 65MW of the 200 MW with Texas phase 1. With the 20,000 new rigs, I make that around 550 BTC a month. If the cost of production increases to $10k per coin just what will our revenue/profit be like with bitty on a run? Then add 135 MW for the rest of phase 1 and then the 600MW for phase 2.
From the above, 45 +71 = 116 MW from 1.7 Exahash. Therefore 800 MW equates to 11.7 Exahash. Don’t forget to add the 1.7 for the current (excuse the pun) which should be fully set up mid-November. I estimate that we could see 13.4 Exahash once Texas 1 & 2 are fully operational with out pervious. All that said, the immersion cooling could add 40 to 50% and more advanced rigs add further. My guestimate is it beats MARA but could be 12 - 18 months later!
As I said earlier, we have the diversifications and associations like Pluto, WonderFi, ePIC and then Galaxy. What I don’t know is how we finance the rigs to fill Texas 1, but I suspect the current loan with Galaxy to be redeemed 29 of this month, or before suggests, there will be something afoot there. In dream mode, I’d like dear Michael Saylor to cough up $500m so we can fill Texas 2 with rigs too.
At full capacity with 133,120 miners, Marathon anticipates producing around 13.3 EH/s of hashing power. They aim to achieve this in July 2022.
Happy to be corrected especially since this is a rushed job! ALL IMO, but please DYOR. GL patient argonauts/true believers, 600
@Caddor38, I was working on this earlier today and I estimate that we could see 13.4 Exahash once Texas 1 & 2 are fully operational. The immersion cooling could add 40 to 50% and more advanced rigs add further. My guestimate is it beats MARA but could be 12 - 18 months later! Will finish my draft and post ASAP. ATB
yep the 6 exhash would align with the formula above, less the overclocking ofcourse
“While deliveries of miners may continue to fluctuate in the near-term, based on current estimates, the Company still anticipates all previously purchased miners to be delivered by mid-2022. At that time, the Company’s mining fleet is expected to consist of approximately 133,000 miners, generating approximately 13.3 EH/s.” So Mara expects 13.3EH by mid 2022 IF things go to plan.
200mw is about 6EH as PW guesstimated in Saylorspaces interview.
based on 20,000 bitmain mining machines providing 2 exhash at 60 mw utilization the following can be derived.
800 mw / 60 mw = 13.3
13.3 x 2 exahash = 26.6 exahash total
What about overclockin of 40%
26.6x40%= 10.64 extra exahash
Total 37 exahash capacity
So if if 1 exahsash mines 125 bitcoin per month
37x125= 4625 bitcoin per month
Tell me where my math is wrong?
So Marathon has indicated they will be 13+ exahash in the near future.
How does the Helios facility compare assuming Argo utilizes all 800 mw’s with the emersion technology overclocking capability using the most powerful mining machines?