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No defiantly not trying to to add any fud, just seeing what you guys and gals thought, we have had a great week and hope many more of them are on the way, I guess we will all know very soon just what they have raised, And that this money sets up the texas venture nicely,
@Jimmy170, “Just to make myself clear, my disappointment is that Argo might not raise quite as much as us shareholders are hoping for” a negative stance given the week we have just enjoyed.
At this juncture, nobody knows the price the ADS will be at launch. The brokers are working on the build so that they, together with the company, can judge the optimum price for the ADS. This will be announced around the launch on Thursday.
With the way the auction went at close yesterday, most peeps are thinking it will be higher than the notional $18.40, not lower. So, the latest figure COULD BE $27.77! Yes, it could go up, or down, before then but IMO, yesterday's close should be taken as an indication that we will see an increase on the $18.40.
Nobody knows what discount anyone will get. We do know however that 5m shares will be locked in for 90 days and it seems likely that these will be the ONLY discounted ADS's.
If you are not aware of the long history of FUD and manipulation here, I respectfully suggest that you should research this and then think again about what you post here.
@ Blubay and @LimpingAlong, regards this 'alledged' disappointment, perhaps this is mere FUD. Either that or he/she is not very well informed. Given the trading around the close of business yesterday, it is ludicrous, IMO, to consider disappointment but that is only my opinion and time will tell. (I've been wrong before so no disrespect intended, just my personal view.) ATB
Just to make myself clear, my disappointment is that Argo might not raise quite as much as us shareholders are hoping for, they could have easily sold a few ADS shares at a discount to the $18.40 price, I really hope we sell the for alot more though.
K3VMC, that's why financial advisers get a bad rap most times. I'm one, but for sure am not those cowboy types. Nonetheless, I'm glad you went with your own ideas and not there's. Saying that though, there's an awful lot of people that haven't a clue and would be better with one. The good thing now is that we can't just give advice on direct equities, unless we're qualified to. Something which I'm not (not yet anyway). Tbh, don't think I'll ever want that responsibility stock picking for others
theChuz
“ Choices choices.. All I want to do is retire early, sury thsts not too much to ask”
Nothing wrong with that. I retired in 2001. If I had listened to my financial advisers in the late 80’s, early 90’s, I would now be skint and still at work. They were the original trolls, before the term was coined. They wanted me to make profits for them. Doh!
Never listened to trolls. Not starting now.
@the_chuz, if you wanna retire early, don’t keep mucking about selling-buying-selling-buying, just hodl, simples. (imo, dyor, blah blah blah)
@kev
"Thankfully, none of the above matters to ARB, the IPO, the sp post IPO, or the Texas buildout."
Too true, it only matters to my pocket and as much as I want argo to succeed I want my pockets filled more :)
My strategy - if news in rugs or anything like it comes out early next week then I'll sell everything as I would see it as the final pump before IPO. If its all quiet in the news front then I'll hold as its then a good news flow to kick start the nasdaq listing.
Choices choices.. All I want to do is retire early, sury thsts not too much to ask
Think we used to lease our machines , is it still the case?? If so that will be a game changer
the_Chuz
“ I think Unfortunatly the sign of a good IPO is if the price crashes on launch, it means the company has managed to sell shards at higher than there value.
What's good for the company is not always good for the current shareholders..
Hopefully with the price being established for trading already we will go up.. If not back to 130 I think”
Thankfully, none of the above matters to ARB, the IPO, the sp post IPO, or the Texas buildout.
@the_Chuz,
no probs, that's fair enough - better to have thoughts than none at all. Take care.
@Amanensia, thanks. It is really time-consuming having to wade through so much paperwork, I don't have the knowledge needed but I think you are barking up the right tree - not barking mad! ATB
@600
"I think we need to consider the MC and not just the raise, it is all about growth. The book-building process provides a comprehensive 'feel' on which to base the launch price - only my opinion. Maybe we need to agree to disagree. ATB"
Its just a thought on my side.. Hopefully it shoots up..
@the_Chuz,
I think we need to consider the MC and not just the raise, it is all about growth. The book-building process provides a comprehensive 'feel' on which to base the launch price - only my opinion. Maybe we need to agree to disagree. ATB
600T - I presume anything that's forward sold will have the lock-in, yeah, but I'm not entirely certain whether there's a precise 1:1 mapping between forward sold and locked in. I think I read something about some director/insider shares being locked in - Whether that's down to them buying forward sold IPO ADRs or something else I don't know.
@Amanensia, "a proportion of the 7.5m ADSs may be forward sold". Am I right in thinking that this is why there are only some that are locked in for 90 days? ATB
@600
"@the_Chuz, I take your point but I'm afraid I don't agree it would be a good thing. To base the launch on maximising the raise on day 1, is IMO, shortsighted. We need momentum and we need to grow. Dropping back would be good for traders but I am heavily invested here and am looking for growth, strong growth. ATB"
The company only gets money from the IPO launch not whatever happens to the share price afterwards that's just investors.
The only way the future price is relevant is when there's another round of fundraising which hopefully won't be straight away.. So really the company needs as much as possible 'free' money from the ipo
@Hexam, you post at 10:55 - excellent! ATB
@the_Chuz, I take your point but I'm afraid I don't agree it would be a good thing. To base the launch on maximising the raise on day 1, is IMO, shortsighted. We need momentum and we need to grow. Dropping back would be good for traders but I am heavily invested here and am looking for growth, strong growth. ATB
Agree Wolf - but as others have said below this doesn't affect the company, just us and probably only then only if we're looking to trade as any short term volatility will probably have no impact on longer term sp. For the company it is the initial offer price that is key and this will have a permanent impact on the business and hence the future sp as it dictates how much they raise and can make use of. So I would argue this affects us much more than any wild swings after the IPO next week and if this price is being driven up by the recent surge in sp then that is brilliant news.
@600
"@Amanensia, I too think it is based on the book-building process. Because it is a process, it reflects that time scale. Not only that but as you rightly say, there is no point in setting a price that is too high and then drops back. The success must surely be in gaining momentum. ATB"
I think Unfortunatly the sign of a good IPO is if the price crashes on launch, it means the company has managed to sell shards at higher than there value.
What's good for the company is not always good for the current shareholders..
Hopefully with the price being established for trading already we will go up.. If not back to 130 I think
I think the main thing to remember is that subsequent SP following the IPO can be extremely volatile to the upside and downside.
To give you an example I’ve recently bought Weber shares for $16 not in the IPO itself but on the first day of trading. This have been as high as $20+ and I’ve managed to pick some up this week as low as $14 before moving back up to around the IPO price.
So in summary this could rocket but just as easily drop right back, no one knows.
Either way it’s been a great week and Argo is now one of my largest UK holdings. I even topped up on the way up which I don’t usually do.
If the IPO offer price does reflect the change in sp since the assumed $18.40 given in the latest prospectus then this is a really big deal. As it stands that would lead to an additional $35m approximately assuming all the shares are taken up .
To put this into context this would mean that most of the Galaxy Loan could be paid off by the extra funds from the IPO alone. Or would buy perhaps machines generating around 500PH?
Like Amanensia says though, I don't think it is as simple as that but hopefully at least some of the recent price rise will be reflected in the initial offer price and if it is then the share price next week when the IPO price is actually finalised/agreed really does matter.
I would imagine the IPO price would have to be lower than the current price to make it attractive for investors.
Exciting times ahead
Yes, when I say "the price" I mean the issue price, not the subsequent market price. A proportion of the 7.5m ADSs may be forward sold and obviously they would be at a discount if that price was set prior to the recent rise, but I'd expect the bulk of the shares to be at a placement price that more closely reflects the market price on Thursday (assuming that's when it all does happen.)
Obviously in terms of our own holdings it's the subsequent market price that matters most but a higher issue price means more cash raised for Argo. Every extra million is a million they don't have to raise/borrow/sell HODL for.
@Amanensia, I too think it is based on the book-building process. Because it is a process, it reflects that time scale. Not only that but as you rightly say, there is no point in setting a price that is too high and then drops back. The success must surely be in gaining momentum. ATB