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There I don't agree with you. Bitcoin is much bigger than Saylor. In the event that part of his postion got margined I don't see it being the event that you imagine it would be.
Luna was a much bigger event.
You need to remember that BTC has been through worse than this and come out stronger. Participants know this.
When it comes to MSTR it will be more the emotional and behaviour impact of MSTR selling, whose strategy has been to HODL (although I do feel Saylor has traded himself, hypocritically).
Once retail see MSTR selling that is when the fear will kick in, which could drop it to low teens - this itself will have a huge knock on effect across the crypto/btc sector
The LUNA impact was less so, since LUNA hadnt helped build up the who HODL Mantra which Saylor and MSTR has
AB, it would take a dramatic and sustained drop in BTC for the likes of Saylor to be forced to dump. That's not to say it's impossible but for the time being we'd need to be looking at sub $15k for things to get hairy imo.
Same goes for many of the miners, as long as we aren't too far off the bottom then this bear market is easily survivable.
AIG - Bitcoin recently survived Luna/Terra dumping 40,000 BTC. How much BTC does MSTR have leveraged? Is it not around 10k BTC?
AIG,
Seems to work with BTC why should miners be that much different. FOMO and Greed are seriously strong emotions,
Also, ask your self whether following a 85% drop would retail investors seriously consider coming bk in to help pump it bk to ATH and whether that ATH figure was purely a once in a generation figure?
Just quick thought regarding MSTR and MARA, both of these are available on various trading platforms, unlike ARB
So, on reflection, not surprised dropped further, as they are easier to short (which I have done actually)
Where as ARB less so, availability is less so - so impacts liquidity, both up and down, therefore, be interesting to see if MARA/MSTR drop is more spot or leveraged specific compared to ARB
All are dogs in current climate tho
@jamesy1980
So the choice was, on that basis, lose more than half your money or near 3 quarters of your money, if crystallised - I don't really think ARGO has done as bad as the others is the best investment case
The issue what everyone should be concerned about is if the Whales decide they want to put panic in to the market by chasing some of those MSTR margins, Saylor, the self proclaimed god of Bitcoin could have, by looking to leverage through greed, may have in-avertedly put the bomb under BTC
If this happens, the old crypto saying could happen to the miners "It can drop another 95%"
6 Dec to today (10 mins ago):
Microstrategy (Boatman's reccommendation) - 69%
Marathon (2nd reccomendation and Chae's fave) - 78.6%
Argo - 57.9%
@jamesy1980 - "Argo have fallen due to bitcoin movement and have actually outperformed most of the other miners since 6 December - prove me wrong"
I dont have Dec figures, as unsure which ones want to take, what do have though is drop from ATH:
ARB - 73%
ARBK - 85%
BTBT - 96%
BITF - 83%
DMGI - 93%
HUT8 - 86%
MARA - 89%
MSTR - 86%
RIOT - 92%
KR1 - 79%
So, yes compared to other miners, held up well.
Need to consider whether ARB has shown strength, whether there is yet more drop for ARB, will the other miners have greater upside
Also, ask your self whether following a 85% drop would retail investors seriously consider coming bk in to help pump it bk to ATH and whether that ATH figure was purely a once in a generation figure?
Another trashing on the nasdaq well weathered by bitcoin...
Chae - Wrong - Boatman in December "We think that investors wanting exposure to bitcoin can find better opportunities than Argo Blockchain elsewhere"
Argo have fallen due to bitcoin movement and have actually outperformed most of the other miners since 6 December - prove me wrong...
So he called it right and wrong at the same time. His "Better Opportunities Elsewhere?" section turned out to be a dud.
I say "he" because there's no such thing as boatman capital, it's just a guy making it up as he goes along - like the rest of us but a bit more underhand.
It was a great call but probably not due much to any of the reasons they gave. It was a hatchet job on ARB and although some of the concerns were valid it is really telling that all the other companies listed in their table (dated 24/11/21) have seen their share price drop by more than ARB. ARB appears to have fallen 63% but all the rest by over 70% and up to 80% - if the graphs I'm looking at are correct.
In other words they attacked the company but it is the industry as a whole that has really suffered.
Boatman ‘research’ note.
Looks a great call to me.
Ticker: ARB.L
Date: 6 December 2021 Price: 123p
Market Capitalisation: £575m
123p to 48p in 6 months ‘research company’ did better than all the high end broker recommendations lol
https://theboatmancapital.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/12/Argo-Blockchain-061221_.pdf
Denby apologies. Why do you write in mixed case out of interest?
but highest form of intelligence :)
ArgoBull SARCASM IS the lowest form of whit
The SEC is discriminating against issuers by approving bitcoin futures ETFs and denying bitcoin spot ETFs," according to the investment firm. The deadline for the SEC to approve or reject Grayscale's application is 6th July.
Will the SEC relent for 4th July, maybe then we may see some btc fireworks.
Thanks denby for your valuable input.
ActionJackson YOU HAVE OBVIOUSLY HAVE NOT HELD THESE for long and you cant answer the question that I asked about when this might reverse the downward chart trend AS PW does not give a dame
WILL this donkey ever be back @ £2 plus I have had this for ages and i think the BOD DON'T GIVE A F***
@argobull - "Anything is possible AIG - I don't think it will get to those prices myself, but I certainly could be wrong, same as you could be wrong."
Yes, I agree, no one really has a clue. The only certainty though is the trend is currently downwards, with commodities upwards. Until there is a shift then the best approach, IMO, is to follow and respect those trends
Not about catching the top, or bottom, more about appreciating those trends
@jamesy1980 - "I still have no clue why crypto cynics like you hang here and ARB is the only stock you comment on"
I have actually put my investment case for Argo elsewhere, explaining my rationale. And in terms of company valuations, the one thing for certain is there is no rationale in the market and do remember value of HODL is diminishing, levels of debt, over head costs, revenue's, etc - you even yourself have not the high risk and companies becoming worthless, so appreciate the trend is the essential element
AIG - We all know that crypto is high risk/reward and that a crash could lead to any coin or company becoming worthless, but I have no idea where you've plucked your crash SP predictions from. I still have no clue why crypto cynics like you hang here and ARB is the only stock you comment on - do you not want to spend your time looking at something that could make you a few bucks? Argo with an Mcap of less than £40m... complete drivel!
Anything is possible AIG - I don't think it will get to those prices myself, but I certainly could be wrong, same as you could be wrong.
When I bought a bunch of Argo shares at 4.5p I was wondering whether it would go lower or not to get a better entry. I was going to wait but then fomo'd in as I was worried it would shoot up. Turns out I got almost the exact bottom (at that time). To be fair, probably the only time I'll ever get an exact bottom.
@chaebol "AIG, and also the volume of shares traded on mara is immense, an uptick in the sector and mara will get that stampede. Very wary of any long investments at the moment, need to see some form of bottom and i think we nowhere near. If we get areal crash mara could be back in the couple of dollars and this in pennies, it needs the capitulation that is coming for the restart"
Agree, volume on MARA is immense, compared to other miners, was always ahead of the rest, ARB/RIOT/HUT all came reasonably close a couple of times, but was always the standout play and is the only miner on a few of the UK exchanges (i.e. Plus500)
Also agree, if there is a crash MARA will go as low as $1 to $3 - just comprehend price of other miners if this occurs. I do think most, ARBK included, will see <$1 - HUT/BITF at <$0.50 anyone?