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"The company has grown and is doing well but as an existing shareholders your share is worth less.
What is good for the company is not always good for existing shareholders."
Initially its not good for existing shareholders Sp wise granted but if your vision isn't blinkered we all will benefit. You need to step back and see how the mcap and Sp has grown to date. People would be saying the same thing if/when PW dilutes us at say £5 p/s.
"Chuz, that's condescending, not derogatory (and was very condescending). I'm confident I know a lot more about this than you, so I'm filtering you as there's no point us debating as neither of us will ever respect the other."
I was actually trying to help with that one. Filter away, I was just trying to explain how the market cap can grow and the share price fall.
You were the one who stated:
" Chuz if the market cap goes up it means the share price has gone up""
It wasn't supposed to be condensing it was supposed to be as clear and simple an explanation as I could give.
I think the last thing Pete does is sell the btc hodl. Should have done it when it went to 65k and could have done it instead of the April dilution part 2 when we urgently needed about 28 mill? . Was bang on the value of hodl, all the other assets can’t be valued Pluto ? Let’s hope yop 2.0 don’t get hacked again seriously.
Btc hodls will be usp’s and will be more important than a lot of the company, would be seriously detrimental to sell that and like I say if they were laser focused on that part of the business they would have traded it at 60-65k and then rebought back in but all the btc experts didn’t predict downward trajectory’s at 60-65k the bull run instisted this will go further me included then doh ! 29k whatever it was.
But a department within every miner actually trading Bitcoin too will be another revenue stream for the ones that get it right.
Chuz, that's condescending, not derogatory (and was very condescending). I'm confident I know a lot more about this than you, so I'm filtering you as there's no point us debating as neither of us will ever respect the other.
"I'm afraid I can't help much as I agree with pretty much all you say and to me you are just asking sensible questions and looking for answers like any investor should."
You have a more diplomatic way of putting things than me, your posts are based on fact too which I appreciate, you tend to not annoy folk like my style of posting though :)
"Chuz if the market cap goes up it means the share price has gone up"
Without being derogatory because we all have our own level of understanding, you are missing the point.
Maybe people don't get what I mean when I say what's good for the company is not always good for existing shareholders.
If each share is £1 and there are 10 shares in the company the market cap is £10
If I now raise £1 worth of extra cash by adding 5 shares I have £11 worth of market cap (OK it doesn't quite work like that for market cap but I'm keeping it simple.
I now have a company worth £11 but I have 15 shares in issue so 11/15 = 73p
The market cap has increased to £11 but the shares are worth 73p.
The company has grown and is doing well but as an existing shareholders your share is worth less.
What is good for the company is not always good for existing shareholders.
It's an interesting one, polkadot. I refuse to sell any before their new ATH i.e. over $50. Not in a rush as you get 12% staking on kraken (and with KSM). Come on Argo!
Sold $20k of Polkadot at $42, slam it in here soon as it clears . . . . . Oi Oi, £1.50 + by this time next week
Yes more money will be needed for more machines but there are multiple options around this. I personally think Argo will sell some BTC when we reach near bull run peak and buy machines when the bear market starts and demand is low. It would make sense to do this. But they may see fundraiser as an easy option if the price goes up a bit. But I don't think the price will rise significantly until November as I've said before.
"The fund raises have tended to result in a market cap drop."
Maybe for ARB but that's certainly not the norm. Assuming no change in sentiment the mcap will rise by the amount of money raised, initially. Sentiment is often negative but normally nowhere near enough to offset the amount raised unless that amount is very small as a percentage of mcap.
"Doesn't stop you being a pompous know it all in your replies though does it !!"
Nope not at all, although I would of said sarcastic pompous know it all, if it makes it any better, in real life I'm an even bigger know it all ****, I sometimes even annoy myself but usually I just find myself funny.
@ the_chuz "You will find with all of my posts I am never deregatory to a person ......"
Doesn't stop you being a pompous know it all in your replies though does it !!
The fund raises have tended to result in a market cap drop.
"Chuz if the market cap goes up it means the share price has gone up."
Not if it's via a fund raise which I think was the point.
Chuz - Although you "want some sort of counter argument to the things I perceive as pitfalls or negatives to the investment" I'm afraid I can't help much as I agree with pretty much all you say and to me you are just asking sensible questions and looking for answers like any investor should.
One thing though that may help the sp short term is that ARB have now started putting gross profit figures in their monthly updates. Even though this isn't quite profit before tax (it excludes things like wages) it does include the cost (depreciation) of machines and the impact of changes to BTC in the month.
With the sharp climb in BTC so far in October this 'gross profit' figure is heading for about £25m (compared to £10m in August and zero in September). That might be a wake up call to some potential investors although a few may be put off by the volatility of this figure.
Confirmation of the increase in mining capacity to 1.7 EH should also help as of course will BTC if it goes ballistic.
I assume he is referring to dilution Argobull, hence market cap rising without an equal increase in share price
Chuz if the market cap goes up it means the share price has gone up.
Our k3v loves a troll it’s all he ever talks about the boring txxt
"Surely if you do hold you must have some faith in the company? Based on your posts the common sense thing for you to do would be to sell and buy shares in a company you considered worthy?"
I have been quite consistent with what I think the company is worth at 1.7eh, I. E. £2.30 per share at todays known fundementals.
That is why I hold, I think it might even squeaze £3 per share with a good bit of hype. At that point it's a massive sell for me as I don't want to be holding the bag if the next fund raise is at that point.
The concern I have is that we should be at that price now ish or atleast a good way towards it with whats been declared. So if we need to move the company forwards by increasing hashrate now then we will need money now, it will hammer existing share holders.
The company can be very healthy and increase its makket cap but that doesn't mean the share price goes up. So existing holders may get done again.
"Chuz if you are 100% invested, why do you just post negative stuff all the time? Surely if you do hold you must have some faith in the company? Based on your posts the common sense thing for you to do would be to sell and buy shares in a company you considered worthy?"
Its where our perspective differs, what you see as me being negative is me airing some facts about potential outcomes, partly so I can see if I have understood things correctly but mainly because if someone can give me an opposing view it challenges the way I think about stuff.
There is a wealth of knowledge on these boards and I think it's good to share it. There's little point everyone saying how great it all is when it clearly isn't.
You will find with all of my posts I am never deregatory to a person and I usually always put what I see as fact rather than just making wild statements.
When I'm posting things that you would consider to be negative I woukd absolutely love to be wrong and someone tell me. I'm a decimal place out or an order of magnitude out because at that point I've learnt something.
I can assure you, the big funds and institutions are not looking at my posts on here and thinking "sheesh Chuz just said they don't have enough money, quick sell" what I say is irrelevant to the share price.
Before the IPO, I like many others, was 10's of thousands up. That's all gone and I'm skirting around break even (probably a loss).
I want some sort of counter argument to the things I perceive as pitfalls or negatives to the investment.
If I thought I could alter the share.price by anything I wrote at all I would be delusional ramping the share across as many boards as I could.
Chuz if you are 100% invested, why do you just post negative stuff all the time? Surely if you do hold you must have some faith in the company? Based on your posts the common sense thing for you to do would be to sell and buy shares in a company you considered worthy?
"If you don't agree with any of the figures then tear the figures and assumption apart, put me in my place, show me a different view so I can change my own view if it's valid."
Personally I can't, in fact quite the opposite. Clearly more funding is extremely likely and another share issue is possible along with some of the other options including selling BTC, the Pluto holding, loans, leasing machines etc. They can reduce the funding required if they can generate other income e.g. from hosting other miners but would think this is limited and would reduce their own capacity to mine.
I'm not too worried though whichever route they choose as the returns should justify the investments. I am more concerned that we have had the same 1075 PH for the last eights months - not great whilst others have been expanding aggressively. And although we have been told some new machines have already been installed and are operational we were told exactly the same thing in May. And we were also told we would have 80PH in July. Yet the reported hashrate has remained stubbornly at 1075 PH.
This may be part of the reason why the sp has stalled and I'll certainly be more confident once we do actually get news of an increase to our hashrate (and no, the quiet period is not preventing that announcement).
So whilst I still believe the plans are solid and the sp will climb much higher than it is today, even if BTC doesn't climb much more, this will only be if we can actually deliver on the expansion and grow our hash rate faster than the difficulty levels increase. This is by no means a given. In the meantime some of the numbers being bandied about on here are at best selective and/or optimistic.
"Who knows though, maybe Epic will be directly filling up some of the 200 MW with their own machines at a very reduced rent while at the same time supplying us with very cheap machines. Could be a win win for both companies ."
Now that would be an interesting move, I think we will most likely go down the route of leasing the space and just being paid as a host which is still lucrative, if that's the case though we need to stop the talk of how we will have 200mw chugging away for us.
It would be amazing (and probably not sensible) if there were no more capital raises, it's what it's listed for, to raise money for growth so I don't have an issue with that.
The issue I have is not moving up with btc in any way so if a capital raise comes quick we will get hammered a lot more than if the share price was higher (of course)
My target price based on peers for 1.7 eh is still 230p we might even surpase that to £3 with a bit of mania and hype.
Cant see pw selling any investment in these defi companies to buy machines. He knows what a battle & expense its going to be with so many new companies ordering miners for next year.
Why would he reduce our stakes in something he's trying to divisfy into.
"Argo have 3 defi investments: Pluto, Luxor, and Wonderfi Technologies. So far all three are doing very well."
Any figures for them (genuine question) as I believe they are strong at the moment but I've no idea about cash inflow or what they are worth to Argo, even approximate stuff would be welcomed