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Did you like the wee rise in copper :)
Prefer trading shorter term generally, do like the look of the longer time frame charts here though. Think that descending trend line will be tested and possibly broke soon. Good luck
Got in this morning at 509...then you know what happened :(.....still holding though...reckon theres a pound or two to be made in here too.
I'm so bullish on this one, are you in NKOTB?
Antofagasta had its price target hoisted by equities research analysts at JPMorgan Chase & Co. from GBX 360 ($5.15) to GBX 600 ($8.58) in a report issued on Wednesday
All other miners reported heavy losses, they were still in profit, albeit small
Will present a good buying opportunity here, imo. Results are not the best read for 2015 but, again imo, the future is looking positive for ANTO. Anyway fundamentals not really my forte, technicals is how I make my money, and here they are looking solid for some good gains. My ideal entry point will be 438 and I honestly can not see this dropping any further, however I will start to look for buying opportunities at 455. I will post a chart later when I am not so pushed for time.
up to 2.231, china spooked the markets again
15th march, hopefully all good.
Posted buy here 4th Jan. Taking more profit. Reasons: 469+ gap closed from 31/2015. Huge rise today from 434+ low. Over 7% up with 474+ day high. For now, I want more cash position in case of sharp reversals later. Also have a lot riding elsewhere, for eg. in banks. Loose logic: if commodities continue recovering, it helps banks where I hold. But if sectors like miners see another sharp downturn, it’ll probably take banks down & I can add cheaper. ANTO position reduced to 3 SB longs. Would buy back on reverse to sub-400, maybe higher. - GLA!
Held this from 7th Jan (posted here). Reasons: gap more than filled at 433+ from 06/01. Still hold real shares @ 444.77 posted here for higher target. Plus 3 SB longs. Tempted to hold on, but I still have a lot running here. Besides, ANTO over 65p up on the day, ie. over 17%. Can it last? Whatever happens, no complaints from me. BTW, ANTO SP also out in auction for a while. Reopened recently. - GLA.
Reasons: still hold tranches from 407+ & higher. So well positioned for a price break out. Today's open at 391+ left a gap at 375+. In this climate, that's probably fillable with next poor data. At time of selling, June contract buy SP was 400+, so mind these contracts have higher prices than DMA prices. Will re-enter at circa 375. By the by, over 95 pts taken in last 3 trades here, almost wiping out November's huge hit for being over-leveraged. - GLA.
Re-added yet again. Reasons premeditated in prior posts. NB: DMA SP at time of buying was 368+, more or less my target for re-entering. But these 14th June expiry trades have much wider spreads as no more costs, hence 375+ taken. Target revisable, but 400+ would do as I have other buys higher up. Hopefully we'll get there within 5 months. - GLA.
<b>Antofagasta plc’s (ANTO) Outperform Rating Reiterated at BNP Paribas January 28th, 2016 Filed Under • by ABMN Staff</b> Antofagasta plc logoAntofagasta plc (LON:ANTO)‘s stock had its “outperform” rating reiterated by research analysts at BNP Paribas in a research report issued on Thursday, AnalystRatings.NET reports. They currently have a GBX 580 ($8.26) target price on the mining company’s stock. BNP Paribas’ price target would suggest a potential upside of 54.50% from the company’s current price. Shares of Antofagasta plc (LON:ANTO) opened at 375.40 on Thursday. The company’s market cap is GBX 3.70 billion. The company has a 50 day moving average price of GBX 408.75 and a 200 day moving average price of GBX 521.99. Antofagasta plc has a 52 week low of GBX 340.60 and a 52 week high of GBX 811.50.
<b>Antofagasta plc 53.9% Potential Upside Indicated by Exane BNP Paribas Posted by: Katherine Hargreaves 28th January 2016</b> Antofagasta plc using EPIC/TICKER code LON:ANTO has had its stock rating noted as ‘Reiterates’ with the recommendation being set at ‘OUTPERFORM’ today by analysts at Exane BNP Paribas. Antofagasta plc are listed in the Basic Materials sector within UK Main Market. Exane BNP Paribas have set a target price of 580 GBX on its stock. This now indicates the analyst believes there is a possible upside of 53.9% from today’s opening price of 376.8 GBX. Over the last 30 and 90 trading days the company share price has decreased 83.9 points and decreased 150.2 points respectively. Antofagasta plc LON:ANTO has a 50 day moving average of 446.34 GBX and the 200 Day Moving Average price is recorded at 596.35 GBX. The 1 year high share price is 811.5 GBX while the year low share price is currently 340.6 GBX. There are currently 985,556,756 shares in issue with the average daily volume traded being 3,224,418. Market capitalisation for LON:ANTO is £3,790,451,344 GBP. Antofagasta plc (Antofagasta) is a Chile-based copper mining company with interests in transport and water distribution. The Company operates in three segments: Mining, Transport and Water. The principal activities of the Company are copper mining (including exploration and development), the transportation of freight by rail and road and the distribution of water. Its mining operations produce copper with by-products of gold, molybdenum and silver.
Taken CI's sell price on June contract & 23+ pts (their buy price 393+). Reasons as before. 3 SB longs here & 2 buys in real shares. Plus, Fed guidance murky for possible March rate rises. Personally, I don't think they'll raise them. markets too jittery. However, just that possibility may keep downward pressure on some commodity SPs with interests in China & emerging economies. Hope I'm wrong. Main thing here: over 70 pts taken in last 2 trades undoes most of the damage taken in Nov's hit. Re-enter on any drop to sub-370. - GLA.
Hi Gallante, Thanks. Being totally honest, trading days before results is always a calculated gamble. Q4 out tomorrow. It's a risk I'm content to take as I think this has a lot of upside from these levels at some point. Copper prices will recover. Only timing in doubt. I don't mind waiting, but will stick with targets as I hold other tranches here higher up. However, I don't expect wonderful results in this climate (hope I'm wrong!). More so, that much may be priced in at these levels. Any positives on decreasing debt, reasonable cash flow, etc. & as I said, 400+ doable. Maybe much higher. However, this can't be taken for granted. Market can be irrational. IMO, this is worth a buy if prepared to hold for at least a few months, maybe less. But those after a guaranteed very quick gain would be advised to err on side of caution, as with any miners. GLEN is more diversified, but like VED, it also has a lot of debt. ANTO is heavily reliant on global copper prices & demand recovering. That depends largely on China. But ANTO has relatively less debt, which is one reason why I find it attractive for longer-term, or sooner if macro factors improve a bit. All the best with making the best decision here, & not least with GLEN coming good!
Hi jack- looking for my first entry here, as close to 350p as possible. Do you think the (expected) results are gonna give this a bit of a spike or send it the other way and give an opportunity on the day to get in lower than 350? Sell on news seems to be the way recently with commods/oil Rns ! I have glencore at 90p average now looking to add another commod player. Can hold for mid to long term if needed
Reasons briefly: Premeditated add. Gap at 365+ closed from Friday. Significant gaps left at 433+ (from 6/1) & 469+. Position well below existing ones. SP higher than market price as another June contract SB. Expiry 14 June. NB: ANTO's Q4 out 27th (this Wed), so realistically we could see even sharper volatility soon. This could be 400+, or make new L/T lows. Target reviewed at circa 400. Nothing without risk. - GLA. www.antofagasta.co.uk/investors/events-calendar.aspx
ANTO http://content.screencast.com/users/marketsniper/folders/Default/media/32491175-815d-47b3-af91-41356a2d4a6b/copper10.jpg copper hits support on the white line and then moves up again.
Citigroup resumed coverage on Antofagasta after a restriction period, upgrading the stock to 'buy' from 'sell', having been a seller since 2012. The bank noted the stock has lost around 75% of its value over the past three years and is relatively unique within the mining sector on account of its strong balance sheet, ability to self-fund at spot prices, and pure exposure to a structurally deficit commodity. "We see ANTO as a 'trough cycle survivor' which should appeal to investors despite the risk of a further copper price decline," it said. Citi said its commodity analysts forecast a trough copper price in the second quarter of 2016, averaging $4,300/t, while the financial markets appear to be positioned for under $4,000/t. "In that event, ANTO's stock price is likely to follow the same direction along with copper exposed equities, but we feel comfortable in the company's ability to weather any further downturn, supported by a very strong balance sheet. Therefore we are prepared to risk proving slightly early in our buy call."
Update On ANTO Antofagasta. http://content.screencast.com/users/marketsniper/folders/Default/media/35d97574-f1d7-4c44-b564-c9f3cd2b4104/anto.jpg <b><u>Broker Citigroup</b></u> Citi actually go from SELL TO BUY today. 440p SP TARGET. <b><i>Time to Buy We resume coverage on Antofagasta, following a restriction period, and upgrade from Sell to Buy with a £4.40/share price target (having been sellers since 2012). The stock has lost ~75% of its value over the past three years and has relative scarcity within the mining sector given its strong balance sheet, ability to self-fund at spot prices, and pure exposure to a structurally deficit commodity. We see ANTO as a “trough cycle survivor” which should appeal to investors despite the risk of a further copper price decline. Spot 2017F attributable EV/EBITDA at 7.2x, while not cheap, is still significantly below the likes of SCCO and BHP. Trough Cycle Survivor We calculate 1.3x 2017F Net Debt/EBITDA at spot copper. The company is FCF neutral at current copper prices in 2017+ (negative 2016 due to Encuentro capex). Volume growth is limited until Los Pelambres expansion or second Centinela concentrator; but we see value at current levels, even ex-growth Copper Structurally Good, Technically Challenged Citi’s global commodity team maintains a positive outlook for copper, viewing 2Q16 as the trough in the price (averaging $4,300/t). Structural deficits are expected to emerge in 2020+, exacerbated by the current downturn and lack of investment. Yet, short-term we do acknowledge the downside price risks. Zaldivar Incorporated and Other Key Changes in Our Model Earnings uplift from Zaldivar is more than offset by a significantly lower copper price forecast, resulting in greater than 50% EPS downgrades for 2015-17F. NPV has dropped to £5.0/sh from £6.8/sh. Price target based on NPV and multiples based valuation methods is cut to £4.40/sh from £6.0/sh due to lower NPV and earnings. 4Q 2015 Production Report on 27th January and 2016 Roadmap We expect 731kt copper guidance @$1.48/lb C1 for 2016. Key 2016 events include ramp-up of Antucoya, Encuentro oxides first production, integration and potential revised mine plan at Zaldivar, EIA submission for Los Pelambres (LP) expansion, Centinela Moly plant construction, and progress/resolution of LP lawsuit.</b></i>
Reasons: extreme volatility in Asia over past weeks, which may continue. In this climate, no way of knowing if there'll be consolidation, or which direction market takes next. Plus I've 5 other positions here, including real shares at 407+ & 444+ for higher targets as posted below. With today's open at 399, big gap left below. Passing over nearly 50 pts in this climate seems complacent. Too big a gain to risk letting go in view of my other holds here. This way, no regrets. - GLA.
The charts point out that copper is nearing what looks like a yearly bottom and secondly and more positively warehouse stocks have dropped dramatically and leveling off.!!!!!!!!! In fact the latest 30 day chart showing copper supply is dropping at warehouses..... http://content.screencast.com/users/marketsniper/folders/Default/media/dd4ffc60-4207-4e08-8382-514d037dcc67/copper%208.jpg
ANTO Antofagasta PLC MINER.........in paticular COPPER. Speculative punt, very speculative. Went long earlier this morning. Tight Stop. Is it near a bottom?, does to a CERTAIN extent (debatable) follow the price of copper. http://content.screencast.com/users/marketsniper/folders/Default/media/35d97574-f1d7-4c44-b564-c9f3cd2b4104/anto.jpg <b>Copper Price Near A Bottom !!!!!</b>........... http://content.screencast.com/users/marketsniper/folders/Default/media/d611c656-b96c-42ed-9d96-da5ea4c9d746/copper%201.jpg http://content.screencast.com/users/marketsniper/folders/Default/media/69993a35-050d-463c-a10d-3f5aad2f0328/copper%202.jpg http://content.screencast.com/users/marketsniper/folders/Default/media/0336d026-7689-4ed3-90a7-6de1aad32412/copper%203.jpg http://content.screencast.com/users/marketsniper/folders/Default/media/396484a5-6542-4bd8-8c77-9bb8ce0db7fc/copper%204.jpg <b>COPPER INVENTORIES</b>........ http://content.screencast.com/users/marketsniper/folders/Default/media/36e22ca9-0733-4bb6-808a-528e470bcf18/copper%205.jpg http://content.screencast.com/users/marketsniper/folders/Default/media/59323cea-6a21-4423-b82d-ef126674350b/copper%206.jpg http://content.screencast.com/users/marketsniper/folders/Default/media/0eed431e-7935-45b2-92c3-ea40c2ac5d74/copper%207.jpg