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I agree with a lot of what you have written, but there is a timescale of between 10 and 50 years in the article, and 5 trillion one hopefully can assume is the present size of the meat market. Any intrusion into the North American and European meat markets, you will find they will be the first to collapse and convert to factory produced meat, The poor countries of which there are less each year will b e the last to convert unless there is a significant difference in price between local meat and ethical meat. As for bubbles I hope we get one.
OK, some minor observations about the Sunday Times article, and I will start all this by saying I am invested in ANIC and hope they do spectacularly well.
1 - It quotes an estimate that 90% of meat will be lab grown.
2 - It estimates the market value is a potential 5 trillion.
Now I didn't particularly pay attention to who wrote the article or who was quoted as the source of these figures, but I am almost certain none of them went by the name of Marty McFly, nor did they drive a DeLorean. Let me be clear - these are no better than fairytale numbers. Why do I say that? Well just look at the shocks which have shaped the world, including the investment world over the past 20 or so years. To name but a few we had the dotcom boom, bust and back to boom again, September 11th, 2008 financial crisis, Eurozone crisis, Brexit, Covid 19.....need I say more. Going back further in time, who in the 1980's was predicting the fall of communism and the Soviet Union (clue - no-one!). In the 1960's, everyone was worried about a forthcoming ice-age, not global warming. In the 1940's the then head of IBM predicted the world would have no use for more than 5 computers and 5000 photocopying machines. In 2003, Lehman Brothers predicted Amazon would run out of cash - look how their fortunes reversed. No-one can account for the effect of these existential threats and just because the investment story sounds plausible does not mean that people will not laugh at our naivety 10 - 20 years from now.
Now I believe this is a once in a lifetime opportunity, but do not believe these made up numbers because they fit a plausible narrative. Folk here seem to be pinning a lot of hope on BluNalu (me being one!). But again, don't kid yourself that getting to the market early automatically means you will remain the top dog. Google was not the frontrunner in it's field - that was AltaVista. Facebook was not the front runner in it's field - that was Myspace (and do you even remember Friendster, SixDegrees or Friendsreunited). There will be competitors out there who just might usurp everything in 5 years time.
But I am invested and here's why. You've got to be in it to win it as the gameshow says. So the overwhelming majority of my investments are in notionally much lower risk assets - I have disproportionately high allocations to cash, government bonds, gold and a bit further up the risk scale a FTSE All World Equity Index tracker. But at the other end I have tried to invest small sums in lots of different frontier developments, accepting that most of them will fail but if one (or best case 2) come good then they might increase 100+ fold. But it's important you have lots of these speculative bets as most will return 0. If anyone knows how to invest in CRISPR technology, then let me know (if you don't know what that is, then Google, or Altavista(!) "Has the 1st person to live to 1000 already been born" - surely there's got to be an investment bubble in eternal life
Where does Fortson get that 9 months figure from BTW?
9 months takes us past the likely timetable for bluenalu ipo. So even without warrant exercise funding is less of an issue going forward.
As I wrote earlier, any 'surge' will not just be as a result of the Sunday Times article - on Friday, Citywire categorised ANIC as a 'buy' and Stockopedia has just re-rated the share as a 'High Flyer' from 'Neutral'.
Momentum :)
Looks like there will be a surge of new investors tomorrow morning off the back of the times article. Any buys <30p will look cheap a few months from now IMO
I note the article says the 62.5m will be invested over the next 9 months. Big things happening behind the scenes.
I haven't given up trying to get hold of Chris Hill yet. Not holding breath though lol
I can only feel my resentment towards HL building the more good news comes out regarding Agro.
Agree GVH
Re the platforms, I fear being with the big boys like HL is really going to cost us here. There are some advantages though (I just got some free extra shares via HL in US Solar Fund's raise for example) and some of the smaller players are heavily loss making.
VitroLab - from February 2020 and so we may expect exciting news soon:
"We continue to be impressed by the strong developments VitroLabs is making as the only company in the world to be using this technology to create real leather, without the requirements of raising animals and the issues surrounding animal welfare, sustainability and efficiency” said Richard Reed, Chairman of Agronomics. He added: “We are excited for the next 12 months where we expect to see VitroLabs launch their first leather goods to the market."
Think it may be a ... "we'll give it a miss and put future funding elsewhere" rather than a fold. Shook Meats is still one of the best funded cellular meat start ups in the world according to articles I've seen :)
Yes apologies that’s all that was available when I posted but thanks for the full article now
Jim has sooo much confidence in BlueNalu though Flundra, and his comment that Vitro could be bigger than all of them was encouraging. Disgusting that the way the broker option has caused division between existing Agronimics shareholders though. If the sp rockets from tomorrow on the back of The Sunday Times Article, AJ Bell shareholders are counting their money whilst Barclays, HL shareholders have to decide whether to get in at high 20's/30.
Danny Fortson on p6 of the biz section.
Yes GVH I also noticed he was very disparaging about Shiok which I recall is making shellfish meat with an eye on the Asian shrimp paste market. He clearly sees it as a "fold" in his "bold sold fold" categorisation.
CityWire and The Sunday Times in two days!!! :) :) :) Jim trying to rocket the sp before new share issue?
The momentum is growing fast, now: positive industry commentaries, approving ‘green’ statements, complimentary media coverage about Agronomics Ltd & it’s unique front & centre position, at least £62m more to invest this year & Stockpedia has just re-rated Agronomics stock as a ‘High Flyer’ (was ‘Neutral’).
Enjoy the ride & ignore the now anticipated deluge of derampers
Anybody else notice how blunt Jim Mellon was in his current appraisal of Shiok Meats in his last interview. He basically said Agronomics wouldn't have invested in them if they knew what they did about them now. To quote Jim Mellon "I'd better not say too much as I don't want to be sued!". I suppose as Jim Mellon has been so strong in his views on how good he believes Blue Nalu etc will be, he has to be strong in his views the other way?
Thanks for full article post quercus :)
pt 2
Agronomics estimates the size of the opportunity to be $5 trillion (£3.5 trillion) and last week raised £62 million, which it will invest over the next nine months.
The story of cultured meat goes back to 2013, when Mark Post, a Maastricht University researcher, created the world’s first “in vitro burger”. The cost: $325,000. This showed what was possible, but it was not until three years later that the first culture meat start-ups were founded by Post (Mosa Meat) and Uma Valeti, a cardiologist, who created Upside Foods — or Memphis Meats as it was known until last week. Valeti said: “Back then, it was all in the realm of science fiction.”
Today there are over 70 companies across Asia, Europe and America working on everything from salmon to lobster, and pork belly to bacon, beef, duck and chicken. The boom has been driven by synthetic biology, which takes an engineering approach to cells, pinpointing the ones necessary to grow a desired meat and then instructing them to produce muscle, fat and connective tissue by “turning on”, or off, certain proteins.
The industry has also nearly put behind it a key vulnerability: its reliance on foetal bovine serum. FBS, blood drawn from a living foetus that has been removed from a slaughtered cow, was the industry’s secret sauce because it was packed with the components required to supercharge cell growth. It was also hugely problematic for the self-styled “clean meat” industry.
After years of tinkering, FBS has largely been replaced by other plant-based proteins. The industry is also leaning into the climate change argument. A fingernail- size tissue sample can be cultured into 7,000 pounds of beef within six weeks. A cow eats, burps and poops for 28 months before it goes to slaughter.
The meat lobby is not standing idly by. Cattle ranchers have helped pass laws in seven states restricting the use of the words “meat” and “beef” to describe plant-based and cultured alternatives.
Another challenge is scale. Beyond the hundreds of millions of dollars to build a single manufacturing plant, the mix of nutrients to grow the cells, or media, as they are known, are costly, accounting for 99 per cent of material costs. Slashing prices or finding alternatives will be key to reaching “griddle parity”.
What appears certain is that great fortunes will be made — and lost. Mellon said: “None of these companies existed until a few years ago. None of them has ever turned a profit ... [But] I don’t doubt that the industry will succeed — it’s a question of who will succeed in it.”
https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/is-lab-grown-meat-the-answer-to-the-chicken-shortage-jzxvxv8gx
s lab-grown meat the answer to the chicken shortage?
Start-ups growing meat in petri dishes could make poultry shortages a thing of the past. But will consumers be happy to tuck in?
The chickens are coming home to roost. The price of boneless, skinless breast has doubled in a year to just over $2 in America amid an acute supply shortage.
Independent restaurants have had to go without for weeks, while chains have begun removing chicken dishes from menus. The shortfall — driven by a chicken-sandwich war among big fast-food chains, slaughterhouse labour shortages and “underperforming” roosters — is an unnerving sign of the fragility of a food system under pressure to produce ever more poultry and meat.
An answer to the squeeze lurks in the food compartments of scooters motoring through the streets of Singapore. Foodpanda last month became the first delivery firm to offer dishes made with “cultured” chicken — that is, flesh not from a bird, but brewed in a stainless- steel vat.
Last year Singapore became the first country in the world to approve lab-grown meat. Eat Just, a San Francisco alternative-protein start-up, became the first to sell it to the public.
Josh Tetrick, Eat Just’s chief executive, reckons the Singapore experiment is the start of a revolution. “We’re going to look back and tell our kids ... ‘In the year 2021, a third of our habitable land was used to plant soy and corn to feed the animals we eat. We literally turned our planet into an animal farm. Can you believe that?’ ”
His vision: the multitrillion-dollar industrial agriculture and meat-packing industries will be wiped away. In their place will rise factory-made beef, pork, fish and poultry. The production process for all is broadly the same. A small sample of flesh is extracted from a live animal, from which stem cells are taken. These are put in a petri dish with a broth of nutrients that help the cells divide and grow. This is then moved to a bioreactor with a batch of minerals, sugars, hormones and growth factors — and eventually becomes meat.
Tetrick predicts that 90 per cent of the meat we eat will ultimately be produced this way. A further 7 to 8 per cent will come from plant-based alternatives. Old-fashioned slaughtered meat will be a high-priced luxury. The question, Tetrick said, is whether that shift will happen in ten years, or 50. “Our job is to get it closer to ten.”
These are the earliest of days, and cultured meat has huge obstacles to overcome, from high costs to convincing the public. Nevertheless, Jim Mellon, the billionaire investor and Brexiteer, has turned himself into the biggest backer of the movement. His publicly traded vehicle, Agronomics, has invested in a dozen start-ups including Mosa Meat, which is developing beef mince.
Cultured meat, Mellon said, would be “bigger than electric vehicles”..........................
Somebody posted 888 on ADVFN:
The chickens are coming home to roost. The price of boneless, skinless breast has doubled in a year to just over $2 in America amid an acute supply shortage.
Independent restaurants have had to go without for weeks, while chains have begun removing chicken dishes from menus. The shortfall — driven by a chicken-sandwich war among big fast-food chains, slaughterhouse labour shortages and “underperforming� roosters — is an unnerving sign of the fragility of a food system under pressure to produce ever more poultry and meat.
An answer to the squeeze lurks in the food compartments of scooters motoring through the streets of Singapore. Foodpanda last month became the first delivery firm to offer dishes made with “cultured� chicken — that is, flesh not from a bird, but brewed in a stainless- steel vat.
Last year Singapore became the first country in the world to approve lab-grown meat. Eat Just, a San Francisco alternative-protein start-up, became the first to sell it to the public.
Josh Tetrick, Eat Just’s chief executive, reckons the Singapore experiment is the start of a revolution. “We’re going to look back and tell our kids ... ‘In the year 2021, a third of our habitable land was used to plant soy and corn to feed the animals we eat. We literally turned our planet into an animal farm. Can you believe that?’ �
For those of us who have not yet picked up our Sunday Times can you be slightly more enlightening about what the article says and is it in the business section or news.
Boom