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Just realised that the Remilk costs are not so misaligned with everyone else. The 10% market share they are talking about is equivalent to 50,000 dairy cows which is 10% of the Danish dairy herd which is probably per head larger than many European countries, but is not especially big e.g. annual milk output for Denmark is circa 6M tonnes compared to Germany annual milk output circa 33M tonnes. So $120M is getting you 10% of a relatively small number. I would still have thought there processing costs would be lower than companies doing meat etc. where there is additional steps in creating the structure of e.g. a steak.
Agreed, I was thinking the same regarding the lack of news as you guys were posting several announcements from companies not in ANIC portfolio.
I was expecting some exciting news from Vitrolabs, Formo and Blue Nalu in particular this H1 2022.
If i remember correctly in the interviews with “the leader” from a few months ago he was particularly bullish about Blu Nalu, but so far nada.
However I keep my faith.
I don’t know how the scaling up to manufacturing will affect our shareholding and the impact of dilution if more capital is needed as per RWT2 comments. That is something that unsettles me a little.
But I know this industry is the future, I have 0 doubts about it. I just hope the wave we have chosen to ride is the one that takes as ashore.
And some news would be great
@idg69 - could take a look at Merck KGaA as well: https://www.merckgroup.com/en/research/innovation-center/innovation-fields/cultured-meat.html
idg69 - You could try Sartortius AG (SRT). 12 month high of 839 Euro and currently sitting at 325 Euro. They make this sort of kit.
Time to start buying shares in bioreactor manufacturing companies I think - there will be much money to be made at the 'picks and shovels' end of this disruptive industry in the coming years. Economies of scale will kick in as they always do in any new industry and prices to build these facilities will come down. A positive article in the main.
On another note, having 21 portfolio companies in our stable I would have expected a greater newsflow from ANIC as to progress being made by some of them. News seems to be a little thin on the ground - anyone out there think the same?
The Remilk and GOOD Meat / Eat Just costs don't seem to align but I don't know why. Blue Nalu raised $50M or $60M to fund their pilot scale facility so approx $500M to do 30M lbs/year sounds believable (and also Upside Foods raised about that amount to build their facility capable of "10's millions" lbs/year of meat, but they also indicated part of the fund raise was allocated to developing the supply chain - it didn't say how big a part) . I can only assume that the process requirements for meat vrs. milk are substantially different to account for the vast cost difference. I am also aware that Josh Tetrick, the CEO of Eat Just has his detractors and the company has a messy history so maybe the projected costs are pessimistic based on his track record, but they do seem to be order of magnitude correct which all still points to large fund raises still to come.
Agreed, but going back to the remilk facility in denmark, the cost of that fermentation facility for 10% market penetration was 120m, there appears to be a huge gap in the cost of building these facilities, perhaps a good yardstick would be the cost of the facility against the perceived market capture.
I do appreciate it's not an all inclusive comparison but is there still not some merit in comparing the cost of the facility that gets the food into a format to deliver to the store? Most of the farming infrastructure to produce conventional meat and poultry is already existing, so is that not bought and paid for and reasonable to exclude from the comparison? It's certainly good that this is happening, but there is no doubt the capital cost to build these places is enormous and points to significant fund raising and dilution for ANIC shareholders still to come (not holding out too much hope that warrants will be worth much). I appreciate that there will be some economies of scale to build more of these once the design etc. is nailed for the 1st few, but that might not be huge. The labour to fabricate and the materials required will be what they will be - just because you have the design fine tuned doesn't make stainless steel cheaper or welders and fabricators work faster. The Cranswick facility I put a link to produces about 5% of UK poultry. I'd guess each chicken on average gets you 3lb of meat. Lets say the American market is roughly 5x the size of the UK market (simply based on population). So if the Cranswick facility of 1.4M birds per week is 5% of UK total and each chicken gets 3lb of usable meat, that's about 210M lbs chicken per year. The Eat Just facility will do 30M lbs per year so that's about 1/7th the capacity of Cranwick - so it would feed 0.7% of UK population or a little over 0.1% of US population. Say the Eat Just facility comes out at $500M to build, then to achieve even 10% market share you need to spend about $50B. That will be plus or minus a big percentage but no matter which lens you choose to look at this through, that's a lot of cash.
RWT2 you have to remember that in a processing facility, you are only processing, if you combined that with the cost of rearing the birds on farms the £78m sum would be very different. In a fermenting facility you are rearing and processing the cells, maybe it is not so expensive after all.
Your link didn't work for me, but for anyone else, here is an alternative telling of the same story:
https://www.sfchronicle.com/food/article/Eat-Just-cultured-meat-17196579.php
To build facility capable of up to 30 million lbs per year is estimated to cost $400M to $650M. That's mind boggling expensive compared to a conventional facility. I've posted the following link before, but for some context, Cranswick in the UK increased their chicken processing capacity from 500K birds to 1.4M birds per week for £78M.
https://cranswick.plc.uk/our-story/our-sites/eye
Nevertheless it's an expensive step in the right direction.