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Ocelote - 30 to 38pence/therm projected for next 12 months and my figures with 40pence/therm showed Angus couldn't make a profit.
Lidsey won't make a profit in 2020 due to Corona.
Brockham not producing.
Balcombe permit application still ongoing.
So where is the money coming from then to pay for everything?
As shown on the futures curve:
https://www.erce.energy/graph/uk-natural-gas-futures-curve
Price of Gas will rise going into winter it will not stay at these levels for long.Once the Gas starts flowing we only have to wait a month or two for the cold weather to set in.It is not the end of the world is it.
So the share price is currently backward-looking and not forward-looking.
It's currently valued as a failed explorer, the market has yet to take note of its gas production project.
Without any exploration risk I’ll take that, it’s just a waiting game here I reckon hold, be patient and get the rewards. I certainly prefer to be invested in here than any wildcat exploration praying for that lucky big hit. Patience and time would bring in multiples of the current share price, we are only valued at 4.5-5m currently which is absolute peanuts.
the comments o balcombe are note worthy. However, it makes its more annoying that the company failed to make the revised application in good time. you cant blame covid19 for everything. frankly, it was no more than a weeks job. angs suggested 6 weeks and still did not perform which explains the share price. while its fair to ignore all the trash being posted here by the doom and gloom brigade, its equally fair to criticise the slippages in time lines
And from the 01/05 Operations and Planning Update RNS:
George Lucan, Managing Director, writes: "I would remind shareholders that, even on our modest estimates, Balcombe is a very valuable prospect to Angus and could at pre-crisis oil prices justify on its own the market capitalisation. We won't give up on it. Saltfleetby, however, according to the Competent Persons Report promises to deliver, as a mid-case, GBP50 million of future P50 cash flows before tax to Angus. This is a different order of magnitude and without any exploration risk.
Think it is the move they make once Saltfleetby is up and running that could provide an additional impetus to the share price:
The Director's will continue to focus on the UK onshore but do not rule out acquisitions overseas in jurisdictions where the rule of law is strong. We have closely reviewed over ten such acquisitions and have bid on three this year and bought one. (from the Annual Report RNS of 05/03/20)
From the Saltfleetby presentation of December 2019:
• There are low risk drilling opportunities. With many parts of the field left undrilled – nearby infill drilling is
relatively low risk
there is not a remote chance of this being 10 p plus on SF unless they find more gas than they thought. 5p is a realistic target in january/feb 2021. until then 2 pence -2.5 p plus must be very achievable in the short term.
a lot also depends upon how the oil assets perform. I am discounting them to zero presently until i see all the regulatory permissions . oil should have value as the geology is identical when compared to UKOG. may be angus is quietly seeing developments at their neighbours . if you can get free knowledge from neighbours experience ,why not. no need to incur reinvent the wheel and incur extra costs.
When do we think this will start producing? and if successful how much value will it add to Angus? I have been doing my own figures quiet interested to compare. I see this at least 10p from here on SFB alone, and of course depending on our other assets the share price could revisit the 20-30p level it was before. I also think by early 2021 is when value from SFB would show itself. Either way right now is the perfect buying opportunity.