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Pactrol - Angus have received £2.5 million to either use as decommissioning costs or to use the money to get to First Gas. Angus have chosen First Gas which means they will have to pay the full decommissioning costs out of their own pocket which Angus have said will cost 32 million.
That is why the £2 million has been deducted from the below figures.
Received £2.5m, decommissioned 2 sites, 1 and 3, for just under £80k.
I thought they said they had received 2 million for de commissioning in the deal
And again - the numbers are out of date with regards the to forward curves which doesn't factor in Corona.
At 40pence/therm Angus owes money.
True, failed to note your reference to the CPR.
The CPR's figures are based on the forward curve, which are precisely the prices I have been posting.
Ocelot - yet you are posting the projected pence/therm that is nowhere near the CPR valuation. That is very misleading.
Also the the chart does not take into account the Corona impact on the global economy. As I said before the world economy may take up to 2-3 years to recover which is 20-30% of Saltfleetby total production.
Also the prices quoted on the chart does not include the Transportation, System Owner entry and Off-take charges which reduces it by another 2.5 pence.
You have to subtract £2 million immediately for Angus decommissioning (!00%)
Fixed Opex inc Equipment Lease Costs @ £1.39million per annum
G&A (Field, and Head Office allocation) @ £0.52million per annum
Applying the 51% gives Angus £0.97million per annum.
Angus Energy staff costs are £1 million.
Angus have predicted it will cost £2.79million to get to first oil, so deducting the £2.5 million leaves them £290,000 short.
A sidetrack is planned Q1, 2021 and it is costed at £2.36million (which is a perfect well and no issues encountered).
Angus share of the costs (51%) = £1.2million
Being generous and saying 40pence/therm minus 2.5pence = 37.5pence.
Over 10 years that is circa £37.5 million.
Subtract £2 million for decommissioning = £35.5 million.
Angus share = £18.1 million over 10 years.
1 year equates to £1.81 million
Subtract £0.97million
Subtract £1million
Leaves you owing £160,000 a year.
And that doesn't even include the £1.29 million for the sidetrack or the £290,000 missing to get to first oil........
And that is with 40 pence/therm
Alan2017,
If you look at the Saltfleetby presentation of December 2019 you'll find the 50.3p figure was "out of date" when the presentation was published.
That's because it's an average price over the last 10 years.
In forecasting figures for a project over the next 10-12 years, what gas price would you retain?
Ocelot - Angus are using an average of 50pence/therm for their CPR Calculations.....the curve doesn't reach 50pence, so you've proven that the current CPR valuation is already out of date.
Angus generated £200,000 in revenue from Lidsey with an average oil price of $63.
But Angus have to pay £180,000 per annum to lease the sites which nullifies that.
All this is posted in Angus Financial statements / RNS.....sadly some folk are avoiding these published figures for their own agendas
In the short space of time that the Saltfleetby CPR has been compiled the world has hit an economic disaster through Corona. Valuations being quoted by posters are redundant due to to Corona. An average price of 50pence/therm for calculating is out of date with a current price of 10pence/therm and the near future looking bleak.
http://www.angusenergy.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/2020/03/Reserves-Resources-Valuation-Report-Angus-Energy-Saltfleetby-Assets-Effective-Date-28th-February-2020-Report-Date-4th-March-2020.pdf
On Page 10:
“It is emphasised that legislation, taxation and commodity-price forecasts can be subject to significant change even in the short term and that any of these could have a significant effect on the NPVs presented in this valuation report.”
On Page 46:
Angus have predicted it will cost £2.79million to get to first oil, so deducting the £2.5 million leaves them £290,000 short.
A sidetrack is planned Q1, 2021 and it is costed at £2.36million (which is a perfect well and no issues encountered).
Angus share of the costs (51%) = £1.2million
Angus also have circa £1million salary costs.
On Page 47:
Saltfleetby has annual costs for:
Fixed Opex inc Equipment Lease Costs @ £1.39million
G&A (Field, and Head Office allocation) @ £0.52million
Applying the 51% gives Angus £0.97million
Now that takes us to £3.46 million a year without other costs such as paying the land owners a fixed cost for the other sites and highly expensive Consultants that still need to be brought in.
Angus made £200,000 gross from oil revenue, but the loss for the Company for the year ended 30 September 2019 was £8,414,000
Angus also has a contractual commitment to paying up to £1 million for drilling Holmwood-1 well.
And Angus also have to pay for the Abandonment at Saltfleetby which by their calculations is £2million
http://www.angusenergy.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/2017/02/RNS-Angus-Energy-Fundraising-and-Acquisition.pdf
SF will be profitable and cash generative. off take gas agreement, finalising tenders for equipment procurement, response on first application all within weeks.
Balcombe application should be submitted anytime soon as per operational update, matter of days not weeks.
Brockham was for sale but now the company is considering resumption of extraction extraction from Portland reservoir as nothing from Kimmeridge.
All above on company website.
"But I am right in thinking that ukog have had kimmeridge oil from this rns last december? If there are billions of barrels why is it taking so long and why have angus done nothing? Given that the gas wont really give much to shareholders if any, better to look at oil?"
1. yes UKOG/HHDL have produced from the Kimmeridge (which is amazing) but rates seem to have been low (less than 200 bopd) and may suffer from high depletion (fractures) . They are currently concentrating on getting the Portland up & running
2. Billions of barrels is across the whole Weald - that's from Winchester to Kent. It's also IN PLACE - no-one knows what the recovery factor may be - but probably quite low. - maybe 1-3% The numbers are based on 1 well , HH-1, and are calculated by two reputable outfits - but at this stage they're really only an educated guess.
3. Gas or oil? You have to play the cards you are dealt. I think Lucan would like to get out of the Weald for good - it's a hellish place for swampies and delays and the rewards aren't very good so far. He had the chance to pickup Saltfleetby cheap and, with luck, it will make money
"Ok, so if Brockham is identical why have we abandoned it? Or are we going back to it at some point?"
No evidence it is identical - and UKOG haven't (yet) managed to duplicate either the Portland or the Kimm - and it's almost 6 years since HH was drilled first.
Many suspect that it was the Old Regime climbing on the bandwagon of Lenigas's hype. The wells seem to have been screwed up and the reporting of the evaluations was... less than complete.
THEIR site!
From answer to Investor Question asked on 19/11/19 (for the question and more of the answer, see Investor Questions on thier site):
... Horse Hill, which has a vertical well, has been flowing oil from the Kimmeridge at rates of 200 – 300 BOPD and being very conservative we would expect to match this. Given, as you correctly note, this well is a long lateral, one might expect rates to be 2 – 3 times higher than that of a vertical well and so we would certainly want to exceed the 300 BOPD rate, however, until we test the well we simply do not know for certain how the reservoir will perform. We want shareholders to have understanding of our reasonable expectations but would also, as a company, prefer to surprise on the upside rather than overpromise and underdeliver.
There's no reason at all that he should accept his remuneration be paid in shares valued at a 94% premium above their market price, but this is what he agreed to do during the last year.
There's no reason at all that he should accept his remuneration be paid in shares valued at a 94% above their market price, but this is what he agreed to do during the last year.
gkb,
Apologies for misquoting you. I misread what you were saying about your opinion on SF.
Balcombe is of less interest for me, just not sure I want to stick around long enough to see what happens there. I believe SF will happen before Balcombe. Potential for delays in time line for both, but SF seems more 'straightforward'.
gla
MG,
You will find a lot of people on a lot of boards referring to whichever particular stock as a 'lifestyle' company. It goes with the territory with being on AIM.
I certainly do not ignore the negatives. I have been here since before the rise up to 16p and seen the highs on here from the expectation, and the lows from the realisation re: Brockham.
Having a paper loss that was not worth cashing in (imo), I chose to sit and wait to see what future plans entailed in the hope of clawing some money back.
Unlike gkb, I see some value in SF, maybe smaller than the board and many here are perhaps looking at.
I have held and stayed as I see it as an interesting proposition and hope to recover up to half my losses there, maybe more. Success with any other project will be a bonus, but if SF comes good, I won't be here to see what happens elsewhere.
I take full responsibilities for my investment decisions and plan to sit and wait. If it does not come good as I hope, then I will reconsider then.
I am looking no further than Q4 for my investment here, depending on SF timelines.
gla
Furthermore, we announce that, following discussions with the Board, Paddy Clanwilliam, Chairman, has agreed with the Company to have his first year's remuneration as non-executive Chairman paid in shares priced at 3 pence, a premium of approximately 94% to the closing price on 16 July 2019. Accordingly the Company has issued a total of 2,000,000 ordinary shares which will be subject to a 1 year lock in period. (RNS of 17/07/19)
So the share price was 1.55p at the time.
correction: on reflection, think the share price may have been above 1.50 but below 2.00p at the time.
Hmm this would seem to suggest that it a lifestyle company that tell punters what they want to hear but actually just exist to provide a decent wage.
-----------------------
It's not much of a lifestyle, is it? Clanwilliam was remunerated in shares valued at 3p when the share price was, from memory, in the low 1ps.
"SFB is within a few weeks of being approved "
you clearly never follow the history of onshore oil & gas projects in the UK - meetings are deferred, councils try and kick the can down the road and even the supportive ones crawl over every full stop & comma because they know they're likely to get hit with a court case by the swampies. Then the EA or the RSPB wade in. Europa spent nearly 10 years trying to drill Holmwood and never managed it (tho they aren't that good TBH)
If Angus get Planning permission for the full works by Christmas they'll have done very well I think
the trolls and the rampers will soon get their answer, its all about delivery and income generation from gas and oil.
absolutely correct.