London South East prides itself on its community spirit, and in order to keep the chat section problem free, we ask all members to follow these simple rules. In these rules, we refer to ourselves as "we", "us", "our". The user of the website is referred to as "you" and "your".
By posting on our share chat boards you are agreeing to the following:
The IP address of all posts is recorded to aid in enforcing these conditions. As a user you agree to any information you have entered being stored in a database. You agree that we have the right to remove, edit, move or close any topic or board at any time should we see fit. You agree that we have the right to remove any post without notice. You agree that we have the right to suspend your account without notice.
Please note some users may not behave properly and may post content that is misleading, untrue or offensive.
It is not possible for us to fully monitor all content all of the time but where we have actually received notice of any content that is potentially misleading, untrue, offensive, unlawful, infringes third party rights or is potentially in breach of these terms and conditions, then we will review such content, decide whether to remove it from this website and act accordingly.
Premium Members are members that have a premium subscription with London South East. You can subscribe here.
London South East does not endorse such members, and posts should not be construed as advice and represent the opinions of the authors, not those of London South East Ltd, or its affiliates.
So... OIL has issued an updated CPR, primarily taking into account the elevated pricing of gas. Unsurprisingly this leads to a predicted increase in gross field revenues. Why is this news? Anyone more positive on this BB has been banging on about this for weeks and weeks?
The info on the "uncertainty about the precise start date for the side-track well" is interesting, because again it sounds like ANGS wants to drill the sidetrack as soon as possible. Given that sidetrack drilling is liable to cause a delay (or interruption) to gas production while it is being carried out, that must be a tough judgement call to make, as previously commented upon (i.e. weighing up the short-term vs the mid-term).
The "conservative" estimate of first gas now being mid-March comes as no surprise and so isn't really news either. I do wonder - as per above - whether early sidetrack drilling (if taking place) will cause any further slippage.
So, plenty to digest, but no real new news. Guess what? It still remains all and only about "how much gas and by when?" And it looks like those are the questions that the market is waiting for firm information on (rather than estimates), before deciding to react one way or the other (ANGS needs to re-earn credibility via cold hard results, as BV has pointed out).
As for Brockham PL235 being extended? No surprise there either - except perhaps for the 5 year length of extension granted. Either way, that pushes that one into the long grass for a good while yet.
Yanis we are not getting it sooner because they don't seem to have submitted noise modelling report.
So we are waiting.
I understand the cost overrun for Sidetrack. Every Tom Dick and Harry want to extract resources as prices skyrocket.
As for CPR up 52% that's MASSIVE!
£25m is huge.
Good luck impatient. Keep selling.
Can't see wood from trees.
This is still going in the right direction for me. They are trying their best.
Pleasant surprise as Q and A stated no updated CPR but:
We could provide a rule of thumb, or different scenarios, but this would have no validity in the eyes of our Nomad or the AIM authorities. If the Board believed that there would likely be a significant net diminution in the present value which might be arrived at by an updated CPR, the Board would have felt compelled to consider a further CPR.
OIL has a Reasonable Expectation (5) of First Gas on or before 15th March 2022 (6)
(6) The Operator is targeting 14th February 2022, and OIL is being more cautious in its schedule
assumptions
See page 25 for outstanding permissions and approvals
Page 47: AEWB Ring Fenced Losses Carried Forward 30/9/2021 GB £m £16.92
Page 49: hedged prices, volumes
https://www.angusenergy.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/2021/10/Angus-Energy-Saltfleetby-Reserves-Valuation-Report.pdf
EchDelta, EA approval at end of December will not be a problem if Angus can carry on installing/commissioning processing equipment without it. Else, we have an issue.
In any case, there is an IQ on this on the website and we should find out soon when they answer it.
Personally, I would be much happier if EA approval is given soon, the earlier the better.
EA approval end of December from the looks of it based on CPR document, as they are awaiting results of noise modelling Ra Ra Ra.
So we now have 6 weeks.... Whichever way I look at it it's a very busy period towards commissioning.
Costs for rigs etc... Where are UK rigs etc?
Anyway let the traders and impatient 100K-5m traders sell up. Jokers the lot of them.
Morning BV, back in profit by Xmas sounds very nice. Fingers crossed we’ll all be in profit by then. EA approval is the key, hopefully very soon.
ECH. The only ones that want the SP to increase by 10 or 20% are just traders and not shareholders. I'm personally waiting for a real rerate and not a trader like some others.
It's called broker shorting
I care not of those who don't believe it wanting evidence
They are playing against the retail investors here
Unlike IRON they have every incentive to short this because its rich pickings vs. weak retail
Sell and be done weak hands...
Honestly I am very baffled with todays news of a huge upgrade was expecting a minimum 20% rise...........shows how much I know about the markets!..........either way I added further to my holding here and holding for the foreseeable future we may get a tick up before close to 1.2p lets see.........dyor
Morning Yanis. I fully agree that the SP will be increased on news before production, but the actual proof should put the boosters up it's backside. I hope you are back in profit before Xmas, I also wish for every shareholder to make a good return eventually for their time and effort.
EA approval needed.
The CPR was a surprise, didn't expect this at all.
Figures look compelling.
As for equipment and logistics; a perfect storm I don't blame the company whatsoever. A pressured market where everyone wants equipment and deliveries.
Value .. with 1p traders and sellers .... Is there an order sub 1p that needs filling?
Massive value
https://twitter.com/DVH_Phoenix/status/1452915281517547530
PS: more opportunity to add in the lows.
BV, my friend before we get to first gas … the SP will be much higher, just wait for EA approval and the pictures of equipment at site. A little more patience is needed.
"They delivered on the £12m debt facility."
£1 investment becoming £12m borrowing is exactly why the market needs to see sustained, profitable gas production before we can properly rerate the share price.
Excellent SFB upgrade this morning, regards to the SP not flying yet it's called lack of trust by the markets until production is proven. Once your reputation is damaged it takes proof to regain it that's all, when gas flows next year it will be a different picture. If a best friend has betrayed your trust you are always wary in the future, that's the way i see it and time will tell GLA!
They delivered on the £12m debt facility.
Good news, now management has to deliver for the first time.
Only two large trades so far, both sells at 1.00 is why it is going sidewise.
Good news, now management has to deliver for the first time.
Only two large trades so far, both sells at 1.00 is why it is going sidewise.
You may be right, Yanis, but the result is the same.
Ocelot, I don’t think is shorting, id Spreadex as they are not out yet.
A false drop here in share price...
Why?
5m was easy to buy at 1.0325p yesterday.
Today near 1.38p
https://twitter.com/DVH_Phoenix/status/1452915281517547530
It is behaving as if it is being shorted, but not by retail investors. If an operator is shorting it, then that raises the possibility of a squeeze and a sharp upward rerating.
I'm baffled by this, with current gas prices I thought this would have taken off this morning. Guess bad news lingers.
Really surprised the price hasn't rocketed on this news.
In summary the Report estimates production giving rise to gross field revenues, before costs etc on a mid-case basis of £230 million (previously £141 million) of which Angus's share is 51%. This approximates to a gas price of 64p/therm being a mix of the actual volumes already hedged at 43p/therm and the remaining unhedged volumes accorded prices derived from the quoted and traded NBP forward curve to December 2026 and thereafter escalated by 1.5% per annum. The gross volume of reported Gas Reserves is unchanged.
This is a superb announcement.
Retail investors may not be able to short Angus, but the stock is behaving as if it is being shorted. One of the tricks of shorters is to try to stop a stock from rising on good news.