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H) sidetrack duration. Gl stated in last LSE video that (at best) they see it taking at least 50days to from start to finish. Longer if there are any issues or re-direction.
So I submit any sidetrack revenue won't be viable until end of August at best. Likely mid to end Sept.
Additionally I don't know what the actual "payment " terms are in place. It could be 30 day billing or longer. If so we're looking at end October for sidetrack revenue in the bank.
And possibly end July for first gas revenue to actually appear in the company account.
Hence a possible reason for the extra funding round to cover 'payment slack'.
Agreed Ocelot, I also think oil production not really priced in yet either?!
SAS
I will say that an update on site completion, commissioning and wet-testing would be a nice and welcome bonus though!
SAS
PS: I've not adjusted my price targets. The capital base is increasing very significantly, but, at the same time, Angus's interest in Saltfleetby has very nearly doubled.
So, for myself, the share remains grossly undervalued.
Mirasol, those are all details that I agree I don’t think we will be updated on until first gas has happened and a flow rate understood. Unless there is a feeling by BoD to prop up the SP before then. The sidetrack will be a forward plan from then on.
Regards the funding, GL already stated an appetite for acquisition beyond the current ventures, so again as and when will be my prediction. If in the meantime a deal is agreed for buyout then that’ll be notified as and when.
All IMVHO.
SAS
To add to Mirasol's questions
f) What's going to be the first full month of production?
g) What's the actual consistent monthly production of gas from the two existing wells going to turn out to be?
h) What's the estimated start date for the sidetrack attempt and how long is it estimated to take?
Agree, Crocqman, that every time it looks as if the share is about to break out on the upside, it gets knocked back again with a placing.
But believe the share can re-rate this time: £6m in the bank is a bigger cash injection than in the past and first gas (together with its cash generation) has never been closer, gas which is now 100% Angus's.
And Brockham and Lidsey are there to make a contribution, too, (for Balcombe, we await the appeal decision).
Oh yes
e) how many companies are going to bid for SFB /ANGS and when
We can hope that we get news on
a) First Gas firm date
b) likely production for June
c) Can they do the side track AND produce at the same time
d) what do they need the extra cash for
But I'm not expecting anything
I agree that Angus is a very different company to when GL took over, and have said this for over 3 years now trying to negate all those who tirelessly referred to the SP when he started to now, which is a very false position given what he was 'lumbered' with by he departing PV.
Sadly, he has still not delivered anything meaningful though in over 3 years, despite the promise of SFB, other assets, and mooted projects. Meaningful as in quantifiable cashflow, not the piddly sums from Lidsey and Brockham.
As ever, it is the above that is dictating the SP.
Regardless of what this 'should' be worth according to the many experts who keep giving us figures based on production, side-track, etc, the market just does not trust Angus, as seen quite clearly by a circa 20% drop on news this week.
It is pointless owning 100% of SFB if you can't get it to produce, and at the figures, or greater than anticipated.
One week from anticipated production and we are told it will be "towards the middle of June", so a near 2 week delay.
It really is shockingly bad, they should be throwing staff at this 24/7 to get this producing.
I have reduced my estimated target SP down to closer a 2p level, the bottom of my original estimate, and I will look to sell at least half if we get to that level on production, maybe the lot.
I have been here too long to afford Angus any time beyond SFB production for my investment
Let's hope for a change in fortunes (again) since for something like the 5th time, Angus themselves have scuppered the SP at exactly the time that sentiment was changing and the SP was getting some momentum.
You couldn't make it up really
gla
The transformation of Angus since GL's arrival has been very substantial:
today its principal asset is a 100% interest in Saltfleetby, which only entered the company's portfolio after his arrival;
its 2 strategic investors of today weren't in the company's share capital 3 years ago.
Let us hope that those who deramp Angus day in, day out, year in, year out, recognise they are no longer deramping the same company as they were.
WG818,
The 2 strategic investors are so new in Angus's share capital we await the relevant TR-1s.
Agreed, if his history is still available, then JA51 was not banned, he just exited.
Your post of 13:45 yesterday reminded me of JA51 and his attempt to associate Angus with his chosen bogeyman, David Lenigas.
Ocelot
That’s an odd post? You suggested that that 2 substantial strategic investors are new. They quite obviously are not as I pointed out! You seem to be suggesting 5 recommendations for correcting a post that is grossly misleading is so wrong?
I just had a look and JA51’s history is still available ( I see what you mean about DL but that’s another can of worms by the looks of it) doesn’t look like a ban to me if the history is available!
[ Ref: LargeGin on COPL BB ] - Maybe of interest to some
Friday, May 27th, 2022
Oil prices have been edging higher this week as improving demand signals highlight the lack of supply options in oil markets if there is a drastic contraction in Russian production, a likely outcome if the European Union bans Russian oil. With both US crude and gasoline inventories continuing their decline, whilst recent altercations between the United States and Iran have rendered any JCPOA breakthrough largely impossible, analysts are anticipating another surge towards the $130-140 per barrel range this summer.
EU Pins Hopes for Next Week Summit on Russian Sanctions. The European Union hopes to reach a deal on Russian oil sanctions at next week’s leader summit on May 30-31, with media reports suggesting Brussels will split the embargo into pipeline and seaborne deliveries, allowing more phasing-out time for the former.
US Seizes Two Allegedly Iranian Cargoes in the Mediterranean. The US-Iran antagonism is set to increase further after US authorities seized two laden oil tankers in the Mediterranean, anchored in Croatia’s and Greece’s territorial waters, for allegedly smuggling oil for Iran’s Revolutionary Guard Corps.
Nigeria Might Soon Be on the Brink. Whilst Davos talks usually focus on grand strategy, Nigeria’s finance minister Zainab Ahmed stated that the country’s production is so low (at 1.5 million b/d in Q1) that it is barely able to cover the cost of imported petrol, blaming the shortfalls on theft and infrastructure attacks.