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I only see green bars. I don't know why you keep replying to this troll. Why are you giving him food all day long? He must be a lonely person who only gets his attention here. Fortunately, I don't have to read this crap any more!
Jack, I think you write some fantastic posts putting forward all the positive points for AML going forward and doing well and as a LTH I'm totally on board with you. C26. I think you put forward lots of factual based arguments why AML may not do well which give people lots to think about. However, I do think Jack is right in what he I saying in his last post...we expect more sales and for the debt to be renegotiated. Think about it... we are getting new cars, advertising through F1, new technology including pathway to EV and expansion of distribution network through Mercedes. And as sales improve and we become profitable, we will be able to refinance our debt for a much lower interest rate and start to pay it off. Try to fill that glass back up again C26 :-))
If you were a bondholder getting 10.5 to 15% return, would you be happy negotiating lower returns when the company is still as risky at it was? me neither. IAG drew down a convertible bond today, £820 million @ 1.125%. Not exactly a non-risk company.
It's a good article that draws conclusions from the data. It's more pessimistic than my own conclusions to be sure. It does make assumptions that aren't necessarily true but you can't argue against most of it.
One thing I would say is if aston martin can steady the ship for the rest of this year and next then it would surely put them in a fairly good position to renegotiate the interest on the money they owe? I don't know for certain if this is possible but it would seem plausible? A reduction in the rate would make a big difference to the profit/loss.
The article assumes that the brand won't be improved and therefore sales won't improve. I think the brand will improve and aston are vociferously going after sales in previously untapped markets. For these reasons I think sales will improve.
Agreed Jack, the line between objective and subjective is fine. I don't really post forecasts, I far prefer to discuss facts, they are undeniable. I think the SP is static for a good reason, the market doesn't know which way this will go either. AML have to hit every target they made, no room for error, imho they've already started slipping with DBX sales. If sales stay at current levels and Valkyrie is delayed, I think £16 is on the cards. If DBX sales increase to circa 4000 per annum I think fair value is somewhere between £20 and £23.
Capex is £250-300 interest payments are £160 million per year. So let’s go down the middle and say 275 + 160 = £435 Million in outgoings every year.
Stroll is aiming for c.10,000 wholesales, c.£2bn revenue and c.£500m adjusted EBITDA in 2025. Sounds good huh? He needs to hit that to make a profit of £65million. (500 - 435) which only pays of HALF the interest on the bonds. That’s if they don’t draw down MORE bonds. The more they draw, the more the reduce shareholder equity. Can you see why I am frustrated now? It’s beginning to feel a bit like a football team and rich owners. Talk loud, buy players win stuff then leave with the balance sheet wrecked.
A company who have made a loss just about every year of their existence except 2017 when they inflated everything for the IPO can’t sustain debt of £1.3 billion, especially when he interest is so high. So, we have a 3.3 years between now and 2025, and everything that happens in that space of time will be of huge importance.
So folk can smack me down for being a pessimist all they want. I deal in facts, and preserve capital.
I'm sorry if you found my suggestion to post in a different manner patronising. I can see that it was. Of course you are free to post however you like... In my opinion if you antagonise people you are less likely to get the reasoned debate I think you crave. Your more likely just to get in a slanging match... Which perhaps you want.
I perceive "why are you here" to be the same as "why are you invested in Aston". Its the same thing to me. If people are actively involved in this BB then hopefully they're all either investors or prospective investors... Maybe that's too hopeful / naive.
I think it's unfair to brand my views as solely "faith" driven. I accept that a large proportion of the things I stated are partially or wholly opinion based as opposed to fact based. But not everything is easily quantifiable. It's not easy to quantify the effect building a brand will have on sales. This applies to many different industries. It's incorrect to assume therefore that any predictions based off qualitative information is "faith" and 50-50. To be clear I think quantative data is far more informative and important than qualitative. But to completely dismiss the latter just because the quantative data behind it isn't readily available is a bit silly IMO. Especially since SPs do rise and fall on opinions all the time. It's where analysts and organises believe the value of the company to be. They calculate that using ALL information available to them. Predominantly quantative but also non quantifiable info. And then they forecast what they think it will be in the future.
Are all educated guesses/forecasts dismissed easily as "faith". I presume your guesses are better than mine because you've based yours off more hard data.
Which is more than fine by me.... We are still waiting to hear your forecasts though C2645sg? Its easy to regurgitate negative stats and then bash anyone who dares post positive "faith" based forecasts. Let's hear your forecast... I've put my ideas out to be judged. You have judged them. Let us judge yours
So Dunnie sold out, TinyPie can’t answer for himself, and Jack wants me to post more in a style of his choosing. Your post can be boiled down to one word Jack, faith. Delicious irony, if I was to suggest an hypothetical style for you to post in, you’d think it's incredibly patronising, and you’d be correct.
Stroll is one of those guys that either succeeds tremendously (Fashion) or fails miserably (Asprey and Garrard) by tapping in a nail with a sledgehammer. He’s entitled and expects things just to work. Mercedes F1 show the exact opposite kind of regime: Toto has installed this team spirit that just wins out every time. No wonder Stroll was upset with that Netflix doc making him look pretentious, because he is.
You need to know your numbers to gain an advantage in the markets, and hyperbole and bluster mean nothing. Investing because you believe someone, has a 50% success rate, so good luck to all who invest based on that, you’ll need it.
Alive & kicking thanks, sold out a large chunk of Aston Martin for no other reason than I went very heavily into VIR Biotechnology and am awaiting a decision for ‘emergency use authorisation’ for a antibody drug they have developed with Glaxo. If it goes right I intend to switch back, before anyone accuses me of ramping I stated this late last year. I’ll check out the FB page.
This is a question to Dunnie, ( it's Sunday so all you haters just chill ) hope your ok mate and doing well. Come join us on the Aston Martin share holders face book page. Loads of good folk on there. You to Nella, Jim jam and Fluker.