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@Doyezee – I think we hold similar views here.
AML have declared their strategy and that includes target end dates of 2024 or 2025.
We are still in 2021, and not fully out of the grips of Covid yet, so AML is still a work in progress.
I didn’t get a chance to mention that The Times covered the AML results on Friday, 7th May.
It was a large feature piece in the Business section, with a big picture of a DBX.
“The saviour of Aston Martin – not Lawrence Stroll, the Canadian tycoon, and his friends, who have ploughed hundreds of millions of pounds into the carmaker, but the marque’s long awaited DBX 4x4 – has hit the ground running.”
@Doyezee – As you say, the things we already know about are also covered by The Times:
- Currently “living beyond its means” and the £722m debt, etc.
But it also quotes Stroll saying “we are most definitely out of the woods”.
The Times notes that the losses have reduced from £110m to £42m.
(Which I, and I believe others, see as a step in the right direction.)
Overall, I found the trust of the article positive, as it also talked about the 2024/25 targets.
(Increased sales, increased margins, mid-engine two seaters, etc.)
Although the article did made me laugh when it described the Valkyrie as “gas-guzzling”.
As I don’t think any potential Valkyrie customers are worried about the MPG. ;)
The article also covers Moers and the road map to plug-in hybrids and fully electric too.
I am sure there will be a few more ‘bumps in the road’ ahead for AML.
But I remain happy with my AML investment.
Take care, cheers, Paul. :)
C26, Stroll & Co have road mapped their intended way to profitably/turning AML around. If it was so blindingly obvious that it’s flawed, why would so many big hitters have invested in AML? These people will have their minions who will have gone through ‘the plan’ with a fine tooth comb. Unless you are the all seeing oracle, what is about you that makes you so qualified and able to ‘see’ what nobody else can? What is your work experience and how deep is your investing experience? Have you ever owned your own business and what do you currently do? A genuine question. The debt is what it is, we know about it. The cash flow is what it is, we know about it. Sales are what they are, we know about them. How, because they’ve told us so why (like a dog with a bone) do you feel it necessary to constantly bang on about it? As I said, just doesn’t sound like investing is for you.
C26 = 3300. Its the same pattern again and again. Then when enough people call them out over the constant doom and gloom they write and the negative spin them put on everything and with a mix of useful links pretending to be helpful but usually finishing with a sly undertone they disappear but will then pop back up with another Id.
Does lse pay people to play devil's advocate? to post stuff just to get reactions from real posters? So there bbs are active which gets advertiser's paying to be on here? Any bb iv ever looked at always has at least 1 person who goes out of there way to ruffle everyone's feathers!
Direct quote from the Q1 results:
"Improved cash position of £575m (December 2020: £489m) included £77m gross proceeds from new notes issued in March"
I think it's plain for anyone to see, that the reason the cash levels are where they are because of the bonds. The clue is in the fact that's it's one complete sentence in the results RNS.
Doyezee, so sorry for being repetitive, but patience is difficult when people who don't understand basic fundamentals, constantly challenge facts.
It's cool, you implicitly trust Stroll to turn this around without doing much homework. I prefer to do my homework and share it on here. Get over it.
C26, I have come to the conclusion that you’re either short on AML or are the most pessimistic person on the planet. You’re constantly far too negative to be bullish AML. You’re now becoming so repetitive about debt blah blah which EVERYONE has known about for months and months and months. It is all part of the turnaround and absolutely necessary. They have all the right people in the right place and to date have done a fantastic job. I’ll see you in 6-12 months when I’ll be up about £50k! ;-)
"You’re correct in one thing, you're no expert."
Ooh, niceties in retreat!
Yes dear chap, I actually said that in my last post, so at least you read that bit.
"Their cash in Dec 2020 was £489m . They drew down £70m in bonds in Feb and now their cash level is £575m.
I have no idea how you find that so difficult to understand."
Jesus, you are now trying to obfuscate the issue I presented. Even in your quote the maths don't even vaguely tie up, and you want to know why it's difficult to understand. I won't go through it again because you failed to comprehend or address it the first time.
THIS is why I said you are evasive. You don't want to discuss these topics you just want to spout your opinion of them over and over and ignore any input that does't fit.
A fact sort of underlined by your last 2 posts to this thread.
Great Post pupper. You nailed it.
"Really? The value of a share means nothing? So I can't use it as a metric to judge the perceived value of a company? Seems off. Anyway, it was just a "Ner ner; inB4 Stroll!" type brag really."
Is this a real, 100% serious question?
Please go and do some homework before yo invest any more cash anywhere on the market....
Retail investors ploughed in their cash during lockdown, chasing share prices up, now they are returning to work, the tide is going out and we're seeing who is swimming naked.
You’re correct in one thing, you're no expert.
Their cash in Dec 2020 was £489m . They drew down £70m in bonds in Feb and now their cash level is £575m.
I have no idea how you find that so difficult to understand.
(The only reason they had £490m cash on the balance sheet is because they created £1.3 BLLION in bonds late last year at 12-15% interest)
So tell us your other metric then, valuation, balance sheet analysis you did then etc. Can’t wait to hear it...
"Cash balance of £575m I took from the Q1 statement, that’s up from circa £490m because they drew down £70m of new bonds.
I was warning about cash burn, because they burned through £500m of it in under 12 months. "
As stated I'm no expert, but we interpret this differently. From Q1 results:
· Improved cash position of £575m (December 2020: £489m) included £77m gross proceeds from new notes issued in March; Net debt of £723m (December 2020: £727m)
So they didn't take on £77m debt at 10.5% when they had £550m in cash. They took on that debt after 3 months cash burn (minimum £125m according to you) from £489m. £364m?. I mean, it's not ideal, but it's a less eyebrow-raising ratio than you are suggesting.
Add the £77m = £441m. Someone has snuck an extra £134m into the cash pot somewhere?
Maybe these snippets from Q1 results help explain that...
· Wholesales more than doubled as delivered to meet demand, DBX represented 55% of units
· Revenue increased 153% to £224m principally due to wholesale growth and stronger pricing dynamics as dealer GT/Sport stock reduced as planned
· Project Horizon transformation well underway
Revenue is up, costs are being reduced, Net debt is down slightly. I'm happy things are heading in the right direction for now.
"3 shares for £1 means nothing. A share at 1p can hold much more value than one at £100., it’s not a metric you should ever use to calculate value imho."
Really? The value of a share means nothing? So I can't use it as a metric to judge the perceived value of a company? Seems off. Anyway, it was just a "Ner ner; inB4 Stroll!" type brag really.
Honestly, my first thought when I saw the price was...if there was an offer at the supermarket checkout for physical paper "Aston Martin shares 3 for £1" I would definitely buy some just to say I owned a part of one of the worlds most iconic car companies before it's demise. It just seemed silly at the time.
That's what began my investigations and eventual investment, rather than being the only metric in play. Can't stop laughing at the idea though so cheers for that!
"I have praised the company when I feel it is due, you can check, But I detest misinformation and correct it whenever I see it, and take all the abuse going, without saying a negative bad word about anyone on here."
I know, you're a rock. A bastion of resilience and Christian posting. However, as shown above, we interpret these results slightly differently. Which one of us is mis-informing the board? Not suggesting it's you btw, just saying. I'm happy to see your stuff, but I'd rather not see this list of financial negatives making an appearance in reponse to every positive or hopeful thread we see until your next perceived big negative issue.
"The last year? ..stroll bonds etc "
HAAAAAAAHAhahahahahaha! I love it! True to the role if nothing else!
I feel like it's all gone rather well for AML this year. I've made a lot of money. I didn't exp
Chief engineer of Valkyrie and Valhalla project leaves AML.
Fluker, DBX is made in St Athan and everything else is made at Gaydon.
Welsh staff are not happy because the workload has reduced so much, and reading between the lines they are worried that DBX moves to Gaydon too. I have no idea if that's possible though.
I can imagine that is the case for a lot of investments.
The DBX can only be made at one factory though is what I'm getting at.
As this will be their only big seller imo.
Did they not say though they're doing exactly that? Trying to move everything into one. Wales is also a cheaper area for commercial rent, and labour.
Maximum output for both factories combined is 14,000 units.
Straight from the CFO's mouth last year when asked if they need to look at that, as it's a serious drag on the balance sheet.
Same day Stroll said they wouldn't need to raise any more money.
Stroll might just have underestimated how costly this investment might be.
I had to check, but 4000 vehicles is the current maximum output they believe. And that was with the great Andy Palmer... Who knows if its the truth or not, but we know obviously they're moving it all into one unit and expanding to be able to increase productivity.
Let's say there are Many workers furloughed. For Q1 of the year. They're near that capacity are they not? Given reduced labour and a pandemic. I truly believe the sales will grow, but we will have to wait and see. I'm a pretty humble person. So if I'm wrong I will have a piece of the pie.
I have to agree, that the numbers aren't bad considering the new finished factory and the fact one basic package DBX takes many weeks to finish just one. Not including the fact they mentioned it takes considerably longer for carbon packs. I don't think they have massive capacity to make more at a considerable rate, which is still good in my opinion. Pent up demand. Like you have said if the orders are not putting massive pressure on, maybe they have furloughed workers not needed, but I don't know. Your either on it or not. I would be curious to see how many members of staff were actually put on to furlough. Whether it's a small figure or not.
Either way I imagine they will all be working by now, bar the staff who are being made redundant or let go if contractors.
As you say C26, ALL IN THE MIDDLE OF A GLOBAL PANDEMIC!!! Trying to turn a business around in the best of times is difficult enough. The company was haemorrhaging money before Stroll came along but it is slowly getting on top of its finances. They do not project and have not stated they’ll become profitable for some time yet. As for the additional £70 million in secured notes, yes, I too was a little disappointed that it was done but was obviously for a reason and not for Stroll just to ‘sort himself and his mates out’ as you suggest. As I said, to turn a company around you will need investment which if done correctly will increase sales, revenue and ultimately profit and without raising the monies they have, AML would’ve probably gone bankrupt by now but it hasn’t, there’s half a billion plus at their disposal in order to continue supporting the planned turnaround. As for DBX numbers, production was officially launched July last year if I’m correct? You expect amazing numbers straight off the bat? Porsche was in exactly the same position until they released the Cayenne and now look at them!! It was their saviour and I personally believe the DBX will be a big part of Aston’s saviour along with all the other cars in its offering.
Doyezee, you seem to be defending the company taking out 10.5% interest bonds.
That’s cool, but I disagree.
It doesn’t help the old credit rating does it?
They raised more cash because they had to, and will running at a loss for the foreseeable.
The only reason they have £550m in cash is because they raised that money in the debt market. You speak as if they lowered net debt with income!
Sales up considerably? We’re comparing this year's Q1 to sales in a Covid year, the worst figures of most companies in recent memory.hardly difficult to beat.
Are you happy with 750 DBX sold worldwide?
C24, two crucial parts of turning a business around are linked to money. The first is to stop the bleeding and the second is to invest in order to achieve a turnaround and as long as the money is invested wisely, in principle it will work. In addition, ‘trimming the fat’ is also crucial in a turnaround and all the above are being executed and executed very well by AML management to date. Net debt down considerably, sales up considerably, losses down considerably and all in such a short space of time. The full turnaround is still 2/3 years away but these early days are the most crucial and so far, I can’t see that AML management have put a foot wrong so far.
Cash balance of £575m I took from the Q1 statement, that’s up from circa £490m because they drew down £70m of new bonds.
I was warning about cash burn, because they burned through £500m of it in under 12 months. Hopefully Moers improves those figures, but that was in a year where furlough played an important part. Very soon the company will have a full wage bill and be consuming more cash again. Covid actually played into AML’s hand as it saw them through the restocking phase, they got the workforce paid for by the government at an opportune time.
3 shares for £1 means nothing. A share at 1p can hold much more value than one at £100., it’s not a metric you should ever use to calculate value imho.
I have praised the company when I feel it is due, you can check, But I detest misinformation and correct it whenever I see it, and take all the abuse going, without saying a negative bad word about anyone on here.
So the beauty of the BB is you get to read everything and pick and choose, the same as life in general.
It’s obvious to anyone reading who knows their stuff and who just blows hot air and abuse.
The last year?
Stroll saved AML from bankruptcy by creating bonds with ridiculous interest rates for himself and his mates. Drawing down more bonds in Feb 2021 means only one thing to me, they are gong to burn through a lot more cash in the near future and will need the £550m. (It makes the balance sheet look better as gross debt is over 1.3 billion!)
I don’t apologise for being honest or blunt, if someone gets easily offended at facts then they need to question whether they should be investing at all.
700 odd DBX sold worldwide in Q1 is not good enough for me, and a hybrid version is 2 years away, minimum. Other hybrid SUVs will take market share from AML imho.
Everyone should be wary of the Facebook page too. I remember Dunnieboy joining one and he got stalked, so don’t even look it up if you are unsure.
Update on Rob, he's been permanently banned on here! He's on the Aston Martin share holders Facebook page along with a few others from here. It's a great page, very informative and less nutters than here! Would be great to see a few other good posters from here over there like Carpy, AML, Richard, doyezee, doit, vorlich and pupper, sorry if iv missed any other good posters. I know some of you have said "I dont do facebook" but it's very easy to set up an account and just use it for that. Hope to see you over there.
Tobias at Q1 Presentation:
“Efficiency in the company is key for us. It’s absolutely key. When I started at the company, there were 400 cars in production at Gaydon to build 12-15 cars a day. Now we have 100 cars in the process. We had 70 assembly line stations. Now we have 23. We’re going to have all cars in one paint shop at St Athan, which is the most efficient way to paint the cars because the paint shop has to run at full throttle.”
Not a bad start..... we now have the right Management in place, I feel confident in that. GLA
Interesting...translates this link
Pupper. Thanks for your posts today.
You have probably explained how most people feel about c26’s relentless bombardment of negative information on here. He/she/they continually complain about how every aspect of the company is ran and pick holes in every detail.
Whereas I, like yourself, felt that such a low share price for such an iconic company last year was surely worth an investment/punt. I also will continue to re evaluate my holding on a regular basis as only anyone with half a brain should.
I sold a few shares a while ago as I needed some money for family reasons (not all investors are high flying city boys)
C26 said I should have borrowed money instead as it’s so cheap to at the moment.
Probably a good option if you have a decent credit rating but mines not great so decided to free up funds from shares I’m in profit with.
Even this he construed as me having no confidence in AML and selling some holding as having no confidence in the company.
Unbelievable the way he continually tries to discredit genuine investors on here.
Hope you have a great weekend Pupper.
All the best.
Fairly simple c26, you make me think because I need to satisfy myself that you're just fearmongering again, and then when questioned about it you're evasive etc. I realise 'questioned about your position' was a poor choice of phrase; I only meant the position you take in posts, rather than your shareholding position.
Here for example you provided a list of percieved financial negatives we should be talking about like there's a big issue I've missed, but it comes down to:
"Taking on expensive debt when you have over £550m cash in so insane that the only reasoning I could come up with is far-fetched to say the least."
"Now you're asking for a link to my facetious comment?"
Genuinely had no idea sorry.
"You realise companies can set up bond debt and then not draw on it?"
Yep as I alluded to earlier, but why would they? As soon as it was announced I considered it drawn.
With regard then to WHY they would do this you don't seem happy with my response, but that's honestly as I see it at a basic level. I'm not a financial or business analyst and use fairly simple metrics for my investments. I've run small companies but would undoubtedly founder if you put me in charge of AML or any other listed company. For this reason I have to do my research, make a judgement that the management team know what they're doing and have a little faith.
But just as an aside really, 3 months cash burn from £489m in Dec(not sure where your £550m comes from). What would that be? Weren't you warning us about this a while ago?
"I question everything, and am open to discuss everything. Discussing the negatives stops one getting emotionally involved. Something most on here fail miserably at."
Aah! Now I know this is against the rules, but whether I like it or not I AM emotionally invested here.
I didn't buy AML for any other reason than the brand, and that's what brands are isn't it; an emotional attachment? Didn't buy cos I had faith in Stroll (may even have been before he took over), or Moers, or anyone else. I bought because Aston Martin is a historic british brand that will endure (and the shares were 3 for £1).
I may not be alone with that motivation, and let's face it; we're ALL emotionally attached to our money which we've invested here. It's difficult to read your stuff most of the time, and I understand (although don't approve of) the emotional reactions that you receive. A lot of your concerns are not within my field of knowledge, and require me to learn new things in order to satisfy myself that your concerns are far less of a concern for me. Perhaps a slight re-tone of your posting style to take this into account would encourage readers to engage and discusss and perhaps provide some small re-assurances to the things you're concerned about.
If you're open to discuss everything; I'd love to hear your general opinions of how the last year has gone. You've been consistently negative for most of that time, but the share price h