Gordon Stein, CFO of CleanTech Lithium, explains why CTL acquired the 23 Laguna Verde licenses. Watch the video here.
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PC62, I was focusing on the sales numbers rather than the logistics of manufacture, so agree with you that fine tuning will be required. If we can realistically be looking at a pro rata 2000-2500 build rate by year end (and have the confirmed orders to back-up a run rate like that), I'll be happy. Gonna be a very interesting to see what they actually say.....but I'm confident that it's going to be upbeat, everything I've heard within AML suggests as much.
Definitely not de-ramping, but tying to be realistic. Here's my feeling from 30 years experience in engineering:
5000 is announced max production capacity to be achieved late 2021.
New model start-up in a new factory is a learning phase - small tweaks will still be required even after the pre-production trials - nobody wants quality issues.
Minor interruptions in the hundreds of parts suppliers (indirect from coronavirus) have to be factored in H2 period.
Minor slowdown due to Coronavirus precautions and flareups have to be factored in H2 period.
Production isn't instantly H2 revenue - there's a lag.
So DBX earnings will come from about 1200-1500 unis for H2 2020 - so very healthy. These are the sort of solid messages I'll be looking for, and happy to hear more optimistic numbers at the AGM, but with the facts to back them up.
I'm expecting a minimum of 2500 confirmed DBX orders (with deposits) at a conservative average of £180,000 transaction value. That would be £450,000,000 deliverable this year. Including the highly profitable accessory uplift I've included should push GP to somewhere in the region of 40%. If they simply confirm that DBX numbers like these are achievable this year, the SP will leg up considerably. Add in a credible plan for debt restructuring and we'll really be motoring, so these are the two main things I want to see on Wednesday....
60 plus by tues
So on the basic prices before any upgrades that's £284.4 million just on the DBX and the article was 07 January 2020 so likely to be higher IMO
https://www.theguardian.com/business/2020/jan/07/aston-martin-profits-vantage-dbx-suv
The company is pinning its hopes on the new DBX sports utility vehicle, for which it has received 1,800 orders since the launch in late November. It hopes the £158,000 SUV will widen its appeal to wealthy women – nearly all its current customers are men. It will start delivering the DBX in the April to June quarter.
Another shallow commentary.
'DBX could boost sales'
Don't they already have pre orders for 2000..... circa 50% of usual annual volumes?
https://uk.investing.com/news/stock-market-news/aston-martin-share-price-bargain-or-bust-2130628
another reference to a buy out.....
even if it happens or not. ........the SP price will rise....more investors tuning in.......to the media buy out reports...
Astons target is to replicate Ferrari in sales, over 10000 cars sold last year and a turnover of 3.77 billion euros 2019. With the DBX this could help them reach that goal.
Inv2210, Blue and Paul,
Paul ... good post and yesterday I think our CC suggested was spot on... just look up CC posts yesterday about values of AML for TO.
Off to walk with dog and wife ;)
@pau1oz. Got it AM needs to prove it's not dead, profit and then potentially be bought out. No issue as long as it goes up.
Seems to be alot of £2.50 targets. Seems along way off but happy to stay in
@Bluefiesta because there ain't no bean counter like a German bean counter ;o) I don't think they would gain board approval for buying a dying duck. And also Stroll needs to make his profit - I'm not sure he's get the profit he's after selling down here. Just MHO.
If they do intend to buy out AM, surely they'll want it at the cheapest rate. Around these levels, doesn't that put a halt on any rise?
I realise rumour mill around takeovers normally means an increase in the firm that's the subject and a slight decrease in the buyer, why wouldn't they do it at 28p?
Thanks great article from yesterday. If this is true and Mercedes do buy out Aml at this current affair does anyone know how much our shares would be worth ect please?
I would be shocked if Daimler didn't buy AML in the near future, the stars are too well aligned. IMO this is Stroll's entire game plan - he's not in this for the long term, he doesn't do that. He turn's companies around then sells his shares at huge profit.
Point being he needs to turn AML round first - to be able to sell at the profit he (and his consortium... it's not just him) needs. Rather than a bargain, Daimler may have to cope with buying a resurgent AML and pay good money for what the famous brand is worth. Their bean counters wouldn't approve buying a dying duck anyway I think even if it were cheap. I'm in for the ride!
Jjt,
You could be right and Shu Fu Li is not stupid man.
However you mention ‘Chinese’ believe me or (THIS IS MY VIEW FOR YEARS) Chinese were poor not long ago late 1980s/early90’s.... I believe Chinese have mastermind for Chinese future to become no1 exports from late 1980s/early90’s....
Sent students (selects) to Wideworld Uni for free on consider to go back home and work for Chinese government (I know this true) and investing in a million-dollar marketing for his/her projects (Chinese print out all money (unaccounted) there quite lots billionaire/millionaire of Chinese (I am not racist) but was there dirty money first place?
So you right, I could see Chinese will be main holder in European business range from oil, mine, motor, pharmaceutical, go on........ especially in Africa at moment.
Back to AM, I wouldn’t surprise what you Jjt said about GEELY.
Cood point Noah..
GEELY was interested at the begining of the year....it could be MB warned them off...
like you say ..maybe AML share holders werent interested....
But that was then..........
Now because of the the virus ...econmoical situation..... anything could happen....
whole new board game.......
these two companies have a close connection...
imo ......IF.... AML is bought ...it will most likely be MB...... but.... GEELY........might just swing it......
they have a lot of money and are spending.......and this Chinese company
are poised to to take on the european automotive manufactures..
Nice find. So much going on here that just about ANYTHING could happen. If they can just get the debt pile down, then irrespective of ANY other possibilities, this will be re-rated. If not then it is a sitting duck for a cheap take-over, by a company that has the expertise to streamline efficiencies, Therefore reducing costs and improve the current brand perception. “Branding is Perception“ as we were always Being told at The London Business School and right now, it would benefit from a branding uplift. This could be something quite literally as simple as a new Bond movie. These are very exciting time for AML, but expect some fairly wild fluctuations in share price; if looking in on a daily basis!! ATB
Jjt, good link....thank you.
GEELY - an question for you.....why didn’t Shu Fu Li (GEELY) couldn’t upper but withdrew to let Stroll bid AM? Or was he (unwelcome from AM shareholders)? If it too much then he will underbid us? Not sure why Shu Fu Li didn’t go further but could be bad timing as it was crash down on motor section ind in wideworld..... or he knew more? As he already own DAI just above 9%. ? Time will tell ..... I know I have giving madness suggestions but never know.
Yeah I know ..lots of typos..sorry...
IMO ..if MB wait too long...........and miss there chance...
GEELY could suprise us and snap up AML at a bargain price...........they were interested a while back........
they own Lotus , Volvo and many other brands.... and are investing heavily into their brands..
and they already own a 10 percent stake in MB and also are involved in joint projects with MB
they have big pockets.....
They would love to add the AML brand to their stable......
https://www.carsguide.com.au/car-news/could-mercedes-benz-buy-aston-martin-79244
AML in trouble for long time and posts big losses ....
Mercedes AMG supply engines and components to AML
Stroll’s consortium invests big ........promising good things ...F1 etc..........Mecedes connection
CEO Palmer recently stated he is going to phase out the use AMG engines , ...one of the best performance engines in the world ...... Do you think this was a bad idea.......
AMG CEO Tobias Moers has been with Mercedes since the 90 s.....
Do you think he would leave a successful AMG career.. with Mercedes........for no reason
Only one thing left ............
Do you think a Mercedes Benz take over-Buy out in near future....
Im holding on to my shares......