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That is the best post I’ve ever read on here.
Catflap defo has cloth brain (crying emoji)
Ha ha! I thinks the NatWest is the Catflish and that went he get banned lots. Being bad man to others. He thrown stick, and not know about gravity, he think it not hit grounds ha ha. Brain made of cloth, not like me brain which is proper brain
Too expensive to go to Mallorca Nite. Covid tests and all you Germans nicking the bed chairs putting us off.
Aston still a penny etc etc :-))
Waiting for Stroll to stop wasting money on formula one so the share price can go up so we can afford holidays again.
Apologies, but I'm on the way for a few days break and definitely not taking any tech. The projected prices are wholesale, but of course, no discounts as the model was way over subscribed. Plus I expect a lot of these cars will go through Q branch and be very individual, but I've made no allowance for this. I expect some buyers will be spending quite a bit on individuality, but I cannot remotely guess this figure.
Thanks for your thoughts Richard, appreciate your work.
This should boost ASP …
New Aston Martin Valkyrie roadster to arrive on 12 August:
https://www.autocar.co.uk/car-news/new-cars/new-aston-martin-valkyrie-roadster-arrive-12-august
This is why Tobias got Michael Straughan who helped turn around Bentley and Ralf Illenberg from AMG onboard.
All starting to make sense and coming together nicely.
Richard, you’ve added the full price of the Valkyrie (and Valhalla) I see.
You do you know Andy Palmer only agreed to the Valkyrie project (in 2015!!!!!) if it didn’t cost AML shareholders any money?
That means Nebula Project stumped up cash for the development, and agreement was put in place for them to recoup that investment through deposits and sales of Valkyrie, Valhalla and Vanquish.
http://www.dailysportscar.com/2021/06/22/aston-martin-set-to-take-legal-action-over-valkyrie-deposits.html
&
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-06-22/aston-martin-sues-dealer-over-deposits-for-3-5-million-valkyrie
&
https://www.ft.com/content/3ed6a859-ad69-4b0c-b57d-3c580e9613e6
"In return, Nebula was due to collect commission from sales of the Valkyrie model as well as two subsequent cars based on the same technology, the Valhalla and the Vanquish.”
“The financial impact of not having received all the deposited funds is expected to be outweighed by the benefit from the termination of the Nebula agreement and associated potential royalty payments,” Aston said.”
Therefore if AML lose this court case, which I imagine they will, they stand to lose more than the £15m they have written off already. This is huge news for a company already losing £200m per year.
I also notice you stopped at 2023. The whole point of my argument was 2024/25 and the projected figures from Stroll for that year.
How can anyone calculate £200k ASP when all the high-profit specials are all sold by then? Your average ASP over the next 3 years is £186k, nowhere near 200k. And you have given the best possible price scenario with inflated prices when you have no idea how much AML will make from the Valkyrie. Stroll took 18 months to find out about the Nebula Project deal with Palmer and start court proceedings, so I highly doubt you know more than him.
Great piece of work with the figures Richard. Thanks very much.
Sorry guys, I made an error on my projected 2022 AVP. It should read £198,000 per vehicle.
These are my projections. Feel free to criticise but I don't see anyone else taking the plunge and it's not that hard to project some figures. I cannot project further as we don't have additional model release dates or pricing structures. I've made no allowance for inflation on prices or turnover.
2021
DBX....3000.....165K.....495M
Vantage....1400....120K....168M
DB11....850....160K....136M
DBS....750....220K....165M
Speedster....30....750K....22.5M
Valkyrie....30....2,750K....82.5M
6060 units..... Turnover £1,070,000,000......AVP £176,660.
2022
DBX.....4000....165K....660M
Vantage....1600....120K....192M
DB11....1000....160K....160M
DBS.....900....220K....198M
Speedster....60....750K....45M
Valkyrie....100....2,600K....260M
7660 units....Turnover £1,515,000,000...AVP £198,000
2023
DBX....4000....165K....660M
Vantage....1600....120K....192M
DB11....1000....160K....160M
DBS....900....220K....198M
Valkyrie....35....2,750K...96M
Valhallah....150...700K....105M
7685 units...Turnover £1,412,000,000....AVP £184,000
I did a few calculations based on extrapolating H1 sales and just doubling, plus adding in 30 Speedsters and 30 Valkyries. The ASP for 2021 comes out at £176,000.
For 2022, adding small volume increases to DB11, DBX and Vantage as a consequence of facelifts, plus a 30% lift on DBX sales with the addition of 2 further models. I've also priced in the balance of Speedsters and 2 Valkyries per week meaning there would be additional Valkyrie deliveries in 2023 along with Valhallah. Volume totals 8660 at an AVP of £175,000.