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pantarei - I didn't reply to you last night but I saw SOU around the end of Wave C. Didn't post as I didn't want anyone to think it was advice!
Shares ended at 2.85 up 117%. There was an RNS this morning about securing a deal to distribute LPG so that would have had an effect for sure. It's such a low cost share that fractions of a pence result in big %age swings so probably more luck than judgement.
I personally find all of this fascinating. Definitely something I'll be investigating in more detail. Thank you for posting - much appreciated.
MAC & Dunnie
I thought I would try and apply what I outlined to Dunnie about what waves mean in money terms before and now we are out of hours I thought I share it . Sorry to everyone else if you think I'm wasting time.
I decided to practice with £250 on the share you mentioned SOU which I know nothing about (so I'm not pushing it) and just go on patterns alone.
When I looked on Sunday I could not see anything whatsoever so I took a watching brief.
It opened up at 1.75 and started to oscillate wildly. At 8.50 it spiked to 1.95p and down again. By 9 am I thought I saw the start of a third wave and decided to go in at 1.8p on the expectation of a fitfh wave that would peak higher than 1.95p. It wouldn't let me buy and I pressed the wrong button and placed an order - price unquoted. This came back at 2p. I estimated wave 5 if it came would peak at 2.5p so it wasn't too bad. At 11.50am it peaked at 2.6p and started to come down. I was on a work call at that time and by the time I finished it was 2.4 so I sold.
Including, fees, mistakes and "interruptions" I made £23.82p about 9.5%. No fundamentals just pattern playing. With better execution (1.8 - 2.5) I could have done better and with a bit more practice I might do better still.
I don't know if it was just a one off so I will keep repeating the exercise on random shares without research with my 9% larger learning fund. until either it runs out or I make £1M
It is interest and I honestly believe if you study data long enough there is answers in there that when understood can be used to max advantage as they say ‘the devil is in the detail’.
I use the analogy in football stats, patterns every bit of information you have available if understood and used right improves your chances of a better outcome, the American film Moneyball showed were they used data, graphs etc to improve on every aspect to the extent of buying players and when to sell.
Appreciate your time, thank you.
A long winded answer to a short question.
The wave is about the zig-zag pattern of behaviour investors display on Reacting to unfolding events. The skill is working out where we are in the pattern
We’ve only been doing this a few days, but if we’ve worked out the pattern right we are nearing the end of a wave.
There are no time scales just events.
The start of the end of the wave was 49.5p which we passed on Friday
The absolute bottom of the wave is just below 40p but we don’t have to go there the wave could end on Monday or we could meander for a year
In money terms the nearer you are to 40p the safer you are until the next wave completes.
So No further reaction to Friday’ events and no other events we meander around 50p
Strong Negative reaction to Friday or other negative events we descend towards 40
Positive reaction to Friday or another event that gets a positive reaction and we start a new wave which must at least zig zag up past the previous wave peak of 80.7p and a good way beyond before that wave peaks and starts descending
Again the big if is have a handful of newbies got this right in a short time?
If we have struck it luckY the next thing is to alter our behaviour to benefit from the predictable, unfolding pattern
I’m new to investing but my understanding of the behaviour to adopt is that if we meander or descend take advantage of this to lower your average to as near to 40p as is possible/affordable as we know the pattern must rise we just don’t know when that event is coming
If In the other hand we start to rise to the a point at which we can say the next wave has started then you sell on the zigs and buy on the zags. As long as in buying we don’t average much above 80.7 again we will be relatively safe until that wave completes. If we can get every zig and zag right we will be in maximum profit and have sold before the wave descends.
Thats the theory anyway. Everyone else on the BB says not advice and dyor so I better say that too. I’m interested to see how this plays out
Hope that helps
Utter nonsense - Its all Corona wave and Fed put at the moment
Pan, forgive my ignorance and I do believe everything in life follows a pattern of sorts, even football is using data now, what does it mean in money terms
So if we say
14 May - 22nd macro w 1-2
22bd - today macro w 3 -4
We know w4 can not encroach w1 so current bottom 40p
Anyone whose average is at least 40p is safe for some time.
I’m not sure I agree with you about the placement. My understanding is that there are just events- a placement, the price of petrol, a war, a strike - and investors react positively or negatively to events.
Timescales are not included
Positive events just slow the trend negative events accelerate trend
In terms of the placement if this had been a failure or taken a week to fill investor sentiment would have been different.
Because we are in a fractal all patterns are trapped at the micro and macro levels there are no resets or recalibrations.
If we agree we are in C then the price needed to drop to at least 49.5p which it did on Friday. The sooner to start macro 5.
All we know now is that touching 49.5 signals the beginning of the end of wave C
If people reflect over the weekend and feel cheated by the placement we may head to meander or head down to 40 mentioned above. If the reaction is positive we may have the actual end of C and the start of macro 5.
What do you think?
Where are you with sou and I’ll have a look for practice?
That's the point 3300 - Everything follows a pattern according to Elliott. Just having a play to see if it's true. Not making any decisions using it yet. It was WG that started it all lol
November? Remind me 3300
None of us know about tomorrow/next week
But we do know about November
Who knows ? Not me, certainly !
tiger100 - They are programmed by humans and probably react in the same way to the same inputs, maybe they actually amplify what's happening, who knows lol
Does this theory take into account the sentiment of the algobots, which make over half the trades ?
@pantarei, agreed that the actual wave 1 started on 22nd. From 14th to 21st was a marco wave. If you shorten the timescale of the points you can see it.
Been thinking about the placing and how that affects the wave. From a Elliott Wave point of view it's an artificial event not created by investor sentiment or herd behaviour. Based on 20% dilution and 20% drop in price it's just a straight change down.
Based on this we should take the end of wave A down by 20% to 52.8. That is the theroetical point where we are back on wave 1.
Anyway see how we go tomorrow. I've carried out the same on SOU as I was asked to and have a theory, again we'll see how that goes.
Dimi and MAC agreed
As we are all new to this I still can’t decide if great minds think alike or fools seldom differ.Ha ha
Do you both see the wave starting on 22/5 as waves 3/4 of of macro wave started on 14/5?
Thanks Degsy, sharing enabled now
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Not sure what you mean Dimitri?
Can't see your Table ! I think you need to put it in the top right-hand corner of Public...
dimitri & pantarei
If you take 22nd May as the start of wave 1 Elliott says in his book to draw a line from the start of wave 1 to the end of wave 2.
Then draw a parallel line passing through the end of wave 1 and extend.
When wave 5 reaches this line the upward trend is over and a correction will start.
Hopefully you can see the chart below where I have drawn those lines in red.
We all agree that we are in wave C and just dont know when it will end. I think that what dimitri says is reasonable in that if the price passes 66p we are back on a wave 1.
Good morning to all...
@Pantarei: The right analysis (from both of us) is probably in the middle
But for two things we agree and that is great.
1) C shaft is not closed yet, and we still have air down!
2) We are not yet in a downward trend! We are in a correction...
I have been working on Fibonacci retracements again today!
According to my calculations we have to exceed the value of 66p (point A of our Descending Triangle) to be in an upward trend again!
Maybe everything I've done is wrong! I'm just trying to put my math skills together with following fathers and rules...
I don't know if it can be that easy, usually predicting the SHARE PRICE of a company...
I know Saturday night is busy but did you a get a chance to look at this again?
I still can’t see if we more or less agree or not.
Tomorrow might be crazy but I have some time today
Not to worry if you are busy the waveS will continue and we can join anytime
ran out of characters
Note to self - shorter posts
The graph is too detailed and busy for me to see date/prices but from what I can see It is the same as mine, except that C has not definitely finished. We need an upturn in sentiment ala Oz posting earlier,
This is my observations from my "waves of Optimism" Check them against yours
Wave 1 22nd May -- 28th May 35.46p - 58.5p
Wave 2 29 May - 1st June 58.5p -54.25p
Wave 3 1st June - 3rd June 54.25 - 68.85
Wave 4 June 3rd - June 4th 68.85p -66.65p
Wave 5 June 4th - June 8th 66.65p -80.7p
Wave A 8th June - 11 June 80.70p - 65.5p
Wave B 11th June - 16th June 65.5p - 74.2p
Wave C 16th June -??? 74.2p - ???
"Wave C: Prices move impulsively lower in five waves. Volume picks up, and by the third leg of wave C, almost everyone realises that a bear market is firmly entrenched. Wave C is typically at least as large as wave A and often extends to 1.618 times wave A or beyond."
Wave A 8th June - 11 June 80.70p - 65.5p size = 15.2p
Wave B 11th June - 16th June 65.5p - 74.2p
Wave C 16th June - ?? 74.2p - ??
1.618 x 15.2p = 24.59 or beyond
74.2p - 24.59p = 49.6p or beyond
Wave C 16th June - ?? 74.2p - ??
1.618 x 15.2p = 24.59 or beyond
74.2p - 24.59p = 49.6p or beyond
We await wave C to complete
To be sure this is where we are, I looked over a larger time scale like you.
Taking a step back, the initial sentiment changed on 14th May.
14th – 22nd May also seems like an entire Eliot wave which completed on 22nd May. This is Macro wave 1 &2. This means the one above starting on 22 May to today must be Macro wave 3&4 of an even larger Eliot wave and so MUST complete
So macro wave 1 & 2 = 14 - 22nd June
Macro wave 3 & 4 22 - 27 June onwards
"Wave four is typically clearly corrective. Prices may meander sideways for an extended period, and wave four typically retraces less than 38.2% of wave three.
Macro Wave 3 = wave 5 = 80.7p June 8th
38.2% of 80.7 = 30.83
80.7p - 30.83p = 49.17
Friday's low briefly touched 49.02 respectable margin of error
This DOESN'T mean Macro Wave 4 (current wave C) is over because as OZ says shares don't move for nothing.
Without positive sentiment we meander here but
"Wave 4 may never enter the price territory of wave 1."
Macro wave 1 maxed out at 39p on 19 May so that is the new maximum low.
There is an interesting thread entitled" disappointed but impressed" where I am trying to judge how Friday is generally viewed.
Disappointed - we meander and linger in the 40's 50's
Impressed -we start the new Eliot Wave Macro 5. Although when we start this wave we will have to negotiate Macro ABC corrections when we do that will be the completion of Mega wave 1&2 and we know that wave three is usually the strongest so we have that to look forward to so Mega wave 3 will be massive.
Either way if we see straight C and Macro 4 MUST complete
Health Warning. This all seems straight forward but what are the chances of a shopkeeper and a restaurant owner 1000 miles apart getting this rig