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Jon39 "any comparison of aml with ferrari [in term of business] is for dreamers". Again, this is all too simple a logic it's not and never going to work for the reason it didn't work the 110 years before. I don't buy this in perpetuum.
John39 "Ebitda it is nonsense". This is very blunt, not to say ignorant. It is there. It is fact. It is commonly reported. Hence it's a matter to understand what it is and then you can use it or not and I do use it where it makes sense. https://corporatefinanceinstitute.com/resources/valuation/ev-ebitda/#:~:text=EV%2FEBITDA%20is%20a%20ratio,relative%20value%20of%20different%20businesses.
What you're implicitly saying is Geely should divest their 16% stake immediately because it's been a poor business decision on the ground that AML will never be profitable and Mr Stroll is unlikely to hand over to them if this is what they wanted. Oh my, did Geely use Ebitda….? :>)
Jon39 "You also need to be clear about the current debt refinancing. No extra money was raised for continuing commercial activities, so if the negative cash flow does continue, further fund raising ... will be needed." It's no doubt too premature to say this unless you know and understand all the details of the refinancing, already. If you expect further fund raising will be needed, I'd love to see your quarterly revenue and cash flow projection vis a vis AML's guidance and where/when you think it will be needed if you could.
I won't get back in the short term though... on holiday starting 5am tomorrow morning... ;>)
Any refinancing under current harsh global high-rates conditions costs much more money in the end.
do they actually already have profits to cover it?
Liquidity never was real a problem as long as they have assets to be secured to back this loan/bonds with (and secured bonds tent to accept collateral at material discount)
But the profitability to ensure long-term sustainability (and survivability) is the real issue here.
Of course we all seen lots of businesses printing shares like there's no tomorrow for years to finance promise-land (and given AML' industry they inevitably do need physical capital renewal, high innovation costs hence high demand for significant financial inflows, plus given a bit longer production cycle between building plant until sales are materializing at right scale), but most of those endeavors don't end up very well for capital preservation it there's no tangible results delivered (to ensure organic growth).
“We think refinancing and capital raise concerns held back the share price, but these concerns are mitigated by the issuance of two bonds totalling £1.15bn, largely replacing the existing bonds but also increasing gross liquidity short-term.”
Alongside the completion of the bond refinancing, they added, recent credit rating upgrades could see the “M&A fantasy return.”
https://www.cityam.com/aston-martin-shares-back-in-the-fast-lane-as-analysts-say-ma-fantasy-may-return/
AML over more than last 5 years couldn't get any profits (actually was making heavy losses) to justify valuation anywhere near this sp target. Unless BoA has changed valuation methodology from intrinsic approach to hype or monkey lottery of course.
Bank of America Raises Aston Martin to Buy (Neutral), Target Price £2.50 - BN (Finwire)
2024-03-18 09:03
Bank of America raises Aston Martin to Buy (Neutral), target price £2.50 - BN
https://www.placera.se/placera/telegram/2024/03/18/bank-of-america-hojer-aston-martin-till-kop-neutral-riktkurs-250-pund-bn.html
Link?
Bank of America give a buy rating
I think everyone on here understands you Jon! I think it's fairly obvious to us all! 😆
Sorry about my previous post being in a mess.
This forum is so frustrating, because correction editing after posting does not appear to be possible.
Why the sentences begin without a capital letter I don't know. The place in Warwickshire has had the first three letters covered up. Perhaps the program here, thinks Gee Aye Yacht DON is a word that must never be used.
Anyway, hope the post is understandable.
berrin said:-🟢today 05:23 jon39, generally, in absolute terms the current market cap of just £1.38b is low. ferrari's got a market cap of eur 70b ....
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i had a few chuckles as i read your reply. will just comment on a few points.
any comparison of aml with ferrari is for dreamers. last year ferrari made a pre-tax profit of about €1.6 billion. they are a truly unique business, even to the extent of choosing which customers are allowed to buy what products.
aston martin have a longer motor sport history than ferrari, but of little help unfortunately.
refreshing the model line up has occurred regularly. the only time that dealers have had to limit customer orders was in 2003, after the v8 vantage concept was unveiled at the north america motor show. (you might be interested to know, that car was built in india.) production began in 2005 and ***don worked flat out for two years to fulfil all those orders. have a look at companies house, to see what profit resulted from that period of record production (remember at that time, ford were paying the development costs).
forget ebitda it is nonsense and often used by businesses trying to 'puff up' their figures.
your plans for selling the st athen site would get them into trouble. aml do not own that property.
i think mr stroll is probably unlikely to 'bow out'. the free use of the aston martin name until 2050, for his private f1 race team, requires regular aml board approval. that deal must be crucial to many of his new sponsors, some of whom have stated their delight, at being able to be associated with aston martin.
And lost more monies! Haha! You not understanding numbers haha!
Jon39, Generally, in absolute terms the current market cap of just £1.38b is low. Ferrari's got a market cap of EUR 70b and even Lamborghini is (potentially) worth ten times more than AML, currently. In relative terms, AML is a low 7.65 EV/Ebitda (expect to decrease further) and also a low 1.43 price-to-book ratio. https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-11-07/lamborghini-worked-on-ipo-pitch-well-before-volkswagen-ceo-asked
The starting point from here is attractive with an all-around refreshed product line-up. "... do you expect the number of new AM buyers will increase, or decrease?" I do expect it will increase, yes. The pool of HNWI is ever growing. The price increase for the DB12 over DB11 is around £20-25k and that's not too excessive, given the massive upgrade.
Some side points to watch: They might want to upscale/upgrade their distribution in China and explore SKD production with Geely/Lotus in Wuhan for PHEV, if not for the EVs, later. Keep in watch (no source for that). Then, Lagonda is dead. Can you license the brand to Lucid and potentially develop a car for them on contract, same powertrain anyway? Remotely, but watch. Prepare St. Athan for contract manufacturing - Lotus, Lucid, Maybach or potentially sell it altogether? Watch.
Sure, the alliances are crucial. If Geely want a (much) higher share, then find ways to do it one way or the other and Mr Stroll bows out, slowly... If Geely want more, perhaps MB will follow.
AML say "FCF is expected to materially improve in 2024 compared with the prior year, achieving our targeted inflection point for positive FCF generation in H2’24, primarily driven by the timing of wholesale volumes." So, coming back to your key point yes, cash flow this year is clearly negative, debt eats cash, but debt is shrinking in relative terms if you can grow the business, profitably and that's the challenge.
Berrin said: - Jon39, History is very important and to learn from it. Yet, I'd be more interested here in critical, contrarian views with concrete substance instead of the all too simple logic it's not going to work now because it didn't the 110 years before.
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If you are concerned about serious long-term investment (not share price gambling), then you will be studying the intrinsic value of businesses, to establish whether putting out money now, will produce a return of more money in the future. The best businesses can meet that requirement, because they can generate huge amounts of cash, without requiring more capital. If you prefer not to consider AMs long financial history, then just look at the since flotation period, or the even more recent Lawrence Stroll period. In all of those three periods, it happens to be exactly the same ie. there has been no cash generation (continue to spend more than they earn) and every time the cash almost runs out, further capital has to be raised. Although Mr. Stroll spins a growth story, the number of capital raises from shareholders under his watch and also the annual pre-tax losses, have been greater than ever before. I would be very pleased if AML shareholders continue handing over their money in every capital raise, because my car will need original AML parts and maintenance, but do study the financials in detail if you intend to make a serious investment.
Owners of the recent VH series Aston Martins have beautiful cars, all with more than adequate performance for road use. Take an example of one being worth £50,000, so you will understand why there is reduced interest in PX plus spending £150,000 for the latest entry model Aston Martin. Multiple repeat buyers were very important to AML just a few years ago, but the sports car sales numbers have reduced considerably. Probably this reduction involves the whole sports car market (except Ferrari). The AML SUV was supposed to be the financial saviour (as happened at Porsche), but sales have never reached the level that was originally planned. The recent product margin increases are supposed to ensure a profit on every car, but now having reached £200,000 with options, do you expect the number of new AM buyers will increase, or decrease?
You also need to be clear about the current debt refinancing. No extra money was raised for continuing commercial activities, so if the negative cash flow does continue, further fund raising (either from shareholders or an outside body) will be needed. The level of debt of course acts as a huge drain on resources, with future annual interest payments of £116.8m (that is with FX at 1.275). Over the 5 years term, that interest will total almost 50% of the amount borrowed.
I don't know how much you know about AML's finances, but perhaps some of the above fundamentals might be useful to you.
Correct, psycho. Did you also mention my post on March 5th “I reduced my holding yesterday and bought back lower.” But that’s none of your business, anyway. You don’t deserve any attention. Closed!
Berrin
Posted in: AML
Posts: 16
Price: 176.70
No Opinion
Hello3 Mar 2024 09:35
I bought shares and also did some trading, last month.
Looking forward and will contribute here from time to time.
You already losted monies! Haha! New record haha!
Jon39, History is very important and to learn from it. Yet, I'd be more interested here in critical, contrarian views with concrete substance instead of the all too simple logic it's not going to work now because it didn't the 110 years before.
Playtowin said;
Price: 168.40
RE: Nice - RNS 🟢14 Mar 2024 15:13
Well I asked myself if Aston Martin was better off today than it was at the same time yesterday and before the RNS and the answer was yes, so I bought some for my ISA.
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I hope that your stocks and shares ISA also holds some consistant cash generative businesses, in addition to your gambling shares.
I very much enjoy their cars, but unfortunately the only cash that AML have generated since their IPO, has been about £1.5 billion provided to them by their shareholders. Positive cash flow has been a continuous problem for the Company, since 1913. Thank goodness that enthusiastic benefactors keep stepping forward, every time the cash runs out.
Last post was for your support…. I just put in between (the day we got RNS) and wait till 21/3 - c26 keep say about SP. We need show the reason for last few days falling SP.
Noah, thanks for the passive aggressive reply! 😆
Morning Tiny,
What a lovely day, walked on sunrise, now have a decent coffee.
Read your last post, the first paragraph. You seems try say that SP will go up soon (because SP still decrease/falling) …..
When the RNS come out it was good news (never mind C26) …. But it still yet over the hurdle (on 21st or thereabouts) will confirm if notes are completed and information for distribution (monies) for debt, 2024 autumn notes due etc - that when SP should (hopefully) go up and ward…..
From last RNS and until 21st - the SP really didn’t include the RNS news (notes)
As gambling-
A - buy shares at low as possible before 21/3
B- wait.
If the notes are completed and full information (paid this and that debt, 2024 notes) the SP going UPWARDS.
If notes failed or (successfully but rubbish with how do with monies) - FALLING.
DYOR
C26….. copy and paste this one please, I will promised that I did make this post.
And….. above is accurate but not beyond 2028 (2029 will be awfully year if the business still struggles).
I’ve blocked him, I had a look at his early posts, he’s obviously been burnt by this share and now has issues with Stoll and the brand.So imo he’s to emotionally involved to make rational decisions, that was obvious by his post on the day the fulsome refinancing announcement.
We are still in the early stages of this turn around. But turn around is definitely where we are. Day to day means nothing, take a look where this is in 6 months, 12 months, 2 years. All the pieces are been put into place. Aml now has the time it needs to excute it's plans for a strong future.
Mark sausage Patrick only ever reply to C26....sound like a paid tamper I thinking, but not goods one haha!
That’s a bit rich! Have a nice weekend.