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clairesmith - guarantor loans operate expecting only a certain percentage of people pay back X amount
You get to the nub of the problem. Amigo was lending to people it knew / should've known wouldn't be able to repay. OK, it's happy with that because in the round it still makes a profit off the rest of its book. But the people who got an unaffordable loan can complain and get big refunds.
The question is how many of those people are there and is the provision in recent accounts enough to cover what they'll need to be paid back.
In essence, there's a difference between the risk a lender is prepared to take with their own money and the repayment difficulties they're allowed to expose a borrwer to
This is total rubbish. This sort of playing the market and collusion not only opens you to a civil case but it is now a Criminal offense and would be total madness. This idea that JB will come back as a material shareholder is insane as the banks wont support a mavrick like him. This group needs the debt markets, those markets are closed to JB. The concept that JB is some sort of saviour is total madness and he is totally unsuited to a public company. The sp performance tells you that
Greatcrestednewt - dyor on GC with a bit higher depth, specifically his background, he was MD of debt collections businesses for more than 10 years (those historic connection links don't just fade away for nothing), this buy could easily be just throwing a white bone gesture (and guess to what companies debt write-offs being sold by amgo? We're talking about hundreds of millions {obviously it's not worth that much anyways - bad debt is bad debt after all} at price of just dozen £M - then profiteering on collection litigation), RG alone collected around 300m on amgo placement plus dividends, then directorship remunerations). All I'm trying to say is it's not that straight forward with all these dependencies and links of benefiting the chains. IMO - half a mil worth move by (almost back) director isn't worth much of attention here.
Yes I agree GC is backing himself and I love that!! I do think it'll take time so to suggest an RNS on the first day he turns up seems kinda optimistic to say the least! Patience needed with set-backs likely. Eyes on Prize though,
things to consider:
1) guarantor loans operate expecting only a certain percentage of people pay back X amount. buy having the high interest they only need to make back the original (principle) amount plus some interest. in fact, they want the original amount back fast then only need a small percentage then can reloan out and once again get a small percentage back. the business is geared to lots of loans and consistent returns.
2) the UK (and global) banking are not in a position to loan due to the current C19 situation, as such making it harder to get a loan with you dont already have liquid assets or something to loan against. as such Amigo makes its a more likely place to get some loan than a bank etc...
3) the british people live on a mentality of live now pay later. the whole economy is staked on debt (thats what a mortgage is, you dont own the place the bank does, you pay then rent in reality). as such once again Amigo as a service fits this way of life.
4) Amigo has the volume, infrastructure, expertise, and resources to weather this storm and come out the other end with more market as smaller loan facilities end ( Piggybank being dissolved last year)
Inside buys aren't always correct but let's face it they have significantly more insight here than yourself, myself or anyone else here. 1.5% bought by Glen last week is a massive statement that should not be ignored.
Yes franky it is a sizeable challenge.
Yet Glen is confident enough in the chance of his success to wager £500k + from his own pocket on the positive outcome.
For anyone that wants to get a sense of the size and scale of the challenge, this will help enmormously to get properly informed.
https://www.citizensadvice.org.uk/Global/CitizensAdvice/Debt%20and%20Money%20Publications/AProblemShared.pdf
Glenn, will get the job done, he was with the company from the beginning, he has an excellent relationship with JB and was asked by Amigo to rejoin the company as consultant back in Q1 ...... now he is in the helm!
"JB: Glen buying in a substantial stake, taking his shareholding up from 4.6% to 6% on Friday is the best indication that:
1. He is here for shareholders, not for a salary.
2. Amigo got all of its bad news out of the way at the last announcement."
Yes claire I agree. As soon as Glen has done his work with the BOD we will have our rerate.
At 10% he can force a vote. JB knows what he's doing.
think about it strategically, how best can you (as a major shareholder) get the board members and other staff removed from a company.
simple start dump shares, which devalues the brand and sends a message of no confidence to the market. this in turn makes whoever is running the ship look bad and have to jump rather than ruining their reputation.
alongside this, you can have your friends and cronies buy up the shares on the cheap and start building our own power base that will support you. then when the time is right to start buying massive share volumes again to consolidate the position.
Looks cheap here should see a rise
Alot easier to rebuy shares from retail on the cheap
So 8p is not low enough for JB then lol ??
if you know anything about JB, its that he is very competitive, he loves proving people wrong, and takes massive pride in the things he built.
I would not be surprised if he is dumping shares to keep the price low and force out older investors that bought high, then will buy lots of the shares back once he knows things are moving in the direction he wants.
to be a major volume holder and see Amigo get back to a high SP would be his current dream and goal so he had tell the people that voted against him to F off.