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In the ICC new video he mentions that they turned down amigo shares but also wanted a deal where they would get higher payout if amigo becomes successful? Whats all that about.. surely if they wanted that just go for the shares option? Or put 100m shares into eskrow held by AllScheme to be sold when price hits £2/share, and a small payout now?
As the saying goes once bitten twice shy,investors are going to be so cautious this time round because of the fca no matter what they say before court, so i wouldn't expect the sp to rise past 30p until they both agree and lending starts again.
The FCA were fully transparent when they announced they wouldn’t oppose the previous scheme to creditors to the court but reserved the right to appear in the final court sanction. What they said was interpreted by the market positively but failed to take into account any risk associated to them turning up to oppose.
Hi HH - i think the poor representation was likely owing to the FCA objecting and turning up. Those of us that sadly didn t get out thought it was probably theater but that wasn t so. I don t think GJ and dicker rip would have scored any useful points putting their regulators nose out of joint in a fight, hence the weak showing. Whether the restructure goes deep enough now depends a lot on the mcap. The raise versus todays SP is unworkable so we know the SP will rise once administration is staved off. We could have suggested the raise be based on the MCAP figure as a percentage but the committee wanted certainty. I think its probably now more balanced. We do know that 1 of 2 roadblocks is sorted. The committee actively got a choice and negotiated a deal. 2. Is the restructure aggressive enough. Hard to say as i agree somewhat with debtcamel that much of the money is recycling the consumer payments and not so much from the restructure. I d say this is still finely balanced IMHO but there is still time for the FCA to wade in and make demands though it ll be for a few more pips at best. Anon - if the shares suffer a massive dilution then they ll rerate anyway. I think its about holding on to these for the long term. 50p+ in 2-3 years.
What wasn't pointed out was the sp rise happened because initially the FCA said they wouldn't challenge the SOA. This triggered huge market confidence, only for the FCA to change their mind at the 11th hour and then use the sp rise that they caused in their argument in court .
The FCA acted shamefully. Anyone else, and the FCA would be investigating them for market manipulation. But it is what it is, and I don't think the FCA will want to be seen to be doing that again.
95% of the claimants who voted (the majority did not vote) chose a worse scheme ...so I am optimistic.
I would be interested to know your hunch prices on raise if you're happy to share
Sorry Franky, Maybe I wasn't clear (bad wording on my part). Majority in the group agree with you that SP rising was/is a problem. I just don't see it like that but maybe I'm the naïve one.
I think it is a self motivating situation that because the share price isn't rising it isn't meant to rise. It would be good to have you in the group mate as there is positive/negative and certain things we wouldn't want to write outside the group.
Whether your hunch or my hunch is right both positive outcomes in the end so i'll be happy. The balance sheet leaves no more room for negotiation IMO.
I hear you Anon. not part of Twitterati but interesting the whole group think the SP wasn't the problem!!! I don't need to be part of a Group Think Experiment as I'm very sure the SP was a major issue, hence the FCA stepping in late on and declaring there was clearly more equity in the business by explicitly pointing at the SP rise!!!! it may have been a bit of theater and a useful tool for them to back up the overall unfairness of the scheme not the overall reason for objection but it wasn't helpful. This time around if the SP shoots up again, the FCA will declare that the restructure isn't aggressive enough and that 15m from the raise should be higher. At that point the judge will support the favoured scheme but order the FCA and Amigo to go away and negotiate and come back in two weeks type fair. This is the moment, when the fine, better sight of the dilution and return to lending will all get agreed and sanctioned. My hunches are pretty good by the way.
Hi Franky,
I'm trying to be ambiguous with the share price. I have my own ideas where it will be prior to court, after sanctioning and what the raise will be at but i'm keeping those figures to myself as it is just an educated guess.
What I think which disagrees with most that I read here and indeed many on the infamous twitter group is that the SP rising wasn't the problem last time. If we were 25p but were being diluted 1/1 essentially cutting our holding in half there isn't an issue.
Last time the argument was 30p no dilution.
This time it is ?p and ? dilution.
Agree Amigo will try to keep the lid on it but realistically keeping this below 10p isn't possible IMO.
That's all logical apart from one thing. The rising share price damaged the process last time unequivocally. There is no way that will be allowed so expect fairly bleak rhetoric from GJ. In many ways he already started with "many many months" and "complex" and "we're still under investigation" etc.. I think that may temper the rise. Either way if it passes and the FCA put this to bed, regardless of the material dilution, I still think you'll see 30p again but just after the sanctioning this time. Indeed I want to get the calculator out as you can work out the MCAP on lending volumes earmarked etc. Even before the raise I think it'll be 4-5 higher than todays SP suggests. Lets see what happens as traders are bound to ratchet this up. PS I reported King Jong. Sad he's vanished. Not.