London South East prides itself on its community spirit, and in order to keep the chat section problem free, we ask all members to follow these simple rules. In these rules, we refer to ourselves as "we", "us", "our". The user of the website is referred to as "you" and "your".
By posting on our share chat boards you are agreeing to the following:
The IP address of all posts is recorded to aid in enforcing these conditions. As a user you agree to any information you have entered being stored in a database. You agree that we have the right to remove, edit, move or close any topic or board at any time should we see fit. You agree that we have the right to remove any post without notice. You agree that we have the right to suspend your account without notice.
Please note some users may not behave properly and may post content that is misleading, untrue or offensive.
It is not possible for us to fully monitor all content all of the time but where we have actually received notice of any content that is potentially misleading, untrue, offensive, unlawful, infringes third party rights or is potentially in breach of these terms and conditions, then we will review such content, decide whether to remove it from this website and act accordingly.
Premium Members are members that have a premium subscription with London South East. You can subscribe here.
London South East does not endorse such members, and posts should not be construed as advice and represent the opinions of the authors, not those of London South East Ltd, or its affiliates.
normally the follow on press would be good because we would need punters to buy in to raise the SP. but, as things stand, the return on AMER shares is depending on if and at what level big fish want to swallow us up. i doubt they are swayed, or even reading, the daily mail.
secondary journalism - see tacotac post Fri 13:10.
I would think and hope they are not intentionally reducing production. Highly unlikely in my view. There is lots of reason why thoughput might be down. Possibly storing more due to oil price drop. (They did that before) could also be government taking there barrels from well head by truck again.
I find the lack of update regarding 3rd party crude disappointing
GA
HH taken over by Canaccord in 2017, having steadily increased share (and buying currently in the market : a million between 22nd and 24th July per 8.3) and now at 91,925,000. Our second largest holder after Michinoko at 134,452,585 (11.06%) and worth watching. They bought that last million at 17.795p.
Although I must add that is not taking into account Tracarta Ltd, a company in which ‘John Wardle’ has an interest in. From
what I can see they have an average of 12.91p
Thankyou for taking the time to copy and paste that, I did end up going through everything myself, including all the directors...
The average all round for directors is 19.97p from what I can make of things.
Sorry but where is this HH investment now?
March 2016 @ 25p and Hargreave Hale took 36 million.
9 March 2016
Amerisur Resources Plc
Results of placing
Amerisur Resources Plc ("Amerisur" or the "Company"), the oil and gas producer and explorer focussed on South America, is pleased to announce the successful completion of the proposed placing, as announced earlier today (the "Placing").
A total of 106,000,000 new ordinary shares of 0.1 pence each in Amerisur (the "Placing Shares") have been placed by Stifel, Investec and RBC at a price of 25 pence per Placing Share, raising net proceeds of approximately US$35 million.
If you look at the previous posts by well respected posters the valuation is $600m to $800m.
I think the last one in 2016 was about 27p.
I would like to add to this question, does anyone know what price any placings are held at if any ?
Does anyone have an Idea of what the directors averages are. That might be starting point for a valuation
there average + a premium
cheers
Aurora
Now I follow.
Ok, low teens.
To all interested, on advfn there is a post copied from MOS re at least 2 private equity firms interested....MM's new after the 17p bid there would be a lull until that bid is increased so they briefly push it to 19 to then drop it below 18 to push some stops out then down further into 17 area again to only push it back to around 20 when bid is increased........then further and last offer around 23 from m & p before the big boys come in and we have out high twenties early 30 talk.....still fancy GTE will do cash shares offer......just my thoughts.....
Greggsstottie - we are in the teens already.
I'm not going to hypothesise about the eventual price paid for the company or have a minimum figure at which I would consider selling. I'm just going to wait patiently until the sale is finally resolved and hope that you good people do the same as the best price will be at the very end. Don't lose out by selling too cheaply just to get out of, what is for many of us, a nightmare share.
Firstly congratulations to Columbia for becoming first South American country to win the tour de France. Secondly been thinking about valuation. I would like it to be minimum 50% profit for those lth's who hold at the highest sp. Seems only fair.
Whilst puitting that asset valuation up, I am not suggesting we will get that figure.
Merely thats the bargin these bidders maybe playing for, even as they low ball up & the management high ball down.
Personally if the bids stalls at 25p I worry the management will walk from the table (& the SP nosedives) as soon as we get beyond 25p I reckon the deal is on & the risk comes off the table of a collapse.
After 25p im in till the end game, I wont care what the end deal will be, just reckon past 25p we are onto a winner.
As requested
As per ColonelDrake:-(+edits from me)
Rough Calcs
1. CPO-5 to ONGC for premption rights so goes for industry base of $10pb to $12pb per barrel and $1 or $2pb for p50 resources or portion of 2P. Estimated value circa $250m (conservative)
2. Plat based on 4000bopd and 15mmboe $175m
3. OBA - Strategic worth $75m to $100m
4. PUT blocks 50% - $100m to $150m now OXY involved.(replace with $217m per my post below)
5. Cash in bank of $60m approx (based on reduced capex for 2019)
Total $650m to $750m (i get $800m)
Equates to £520m to £600m(therefore £640m)
Based on roughly 1.3bln shares in issue (assumes all management options exercised)
Value 40p to 46p (im at 49p & comes with the bonus of telling my boss to go feck himself)
I also posted :-
Dont forget 30% CPO-5 is held in a separate subsidiary company & is therefore already packaged nicely to be sold separate from the remaining Amerisur assets.
Regarding the Oxy valuation.
The 50% we currently retain has control rights (so should be worth more than the bit we sold+we didnt take the highest bidder back then (now we would)) therefore :-
Our 50% should read $93m + $19m = $112m+(5%Control est) + (5%highest bid est) = $124m
+The Credit for the bit we sold $93m + $19m = $112m less cash recieved $19m = $93m Oxy Credit.
Therefore the total is more likely $124m + $93m = $217m (less any 50% of any OXY spends incurred (no idea if they done much yet)).
That total includes nothing but the OXY involved land.
Luck, yes, but don't post the same message 3 times in a row. There's no need to spam, lets keep the discussion informative.
Can anyone tell me what are out outstanding tax breaks are from purchases or otherwise?
Much as I would love to get some of the numbers that are being banded around here, I think most are just wishful thinking as often happens, at the end of the day the buyers will want to have something where they feel they have achieved a good price and from experience we don't always get what we wish for as a sell price. Saying that I haven't seen many suggesting under 25, so personally with my glass half empty outlook I an expecting somewhere between 20 & 25 and I would be happy with that, what I don't really wish to see is a sell off of individual assets as it creates complication
One difference from Faroe is that DNO had already got to close to 30% in prior transactions in early 2018 and then the great misfortune of drill results: a success on Brasse would have really helped the shareholders achieve a better price.
Here, the BOD have immediately been proactive, contacting shareholders and urging them not to accept advances and as far as we can see, once the flippers departed on the first couple of days, volumes are now dropping and collecting a stake on the market would be difficult (particularly as the BOD and Michinoko hold 16% of the shares). At less than 5%, FIL is not a big enough 1st step and in any event, whist they seem to have some stake in M &P (as declares on the 8.3) even they do not appear to have made any irrevocable commitment yet.
Whllst I was not a holder of Faroe, there does not seem to be any suggestion of competing bids. DNO just stalked Faroe down without distraction, because of that nearly 30% holding: it was all very dirty. What I suspect is that LTH PIs will largely hold from here and that the IIs will back the BOD to let the bidding process take its course.
There is a lot of criticism of the BOD, but most simply do not acknowledge the achievement here: not only a large acreage, but also on trend, hand picked and with the rubbish discarded. Where else are all those prospective new entrants into Colombia going to get the extension of LL34 (or the light oil trend) or the continuity of the Ecuadorean Oriente basin?
My money still on OXY. They already are bedded in with 50% of 5 blocks and want the OBA. CPO-5 (and Plat, to a lesser extent) will be the jam on the top to fund the acquisition/development, just as our BOD had planned.
Given the ping pong valuations, we are all guessing. I would love anything over 41p. We have the reserves, Cash in bank, TAX BREAKS, the OBA and all licences not yet utilised to factor in to the final price. We are not a one trick pony.
What we do know is that 37p seems to be what the company wants as a minimum given the recent valuation...I do agree with most that in time this would be much nearer £1, but we don't have the luxury of time.
To have no debt, producing assets, cash and profit positive, increasing reserves, super major farm ins, TAX BREAKS and the OBA.
If a bidding war were to come, then who knows. But 60 odd pence could be possible.
There is a chance that no further bids come in to the satisfaction of the bod, but I doubt it. If that did happen we could drop back into the teens.
I'm looking forward to the unfolding saga and eventual conclusion. On the balance of probability the sp will be higher than current so LOW RISK.
Good luck all I hope we all prosper from this situation.
I expect the end game (and relatively quickly) to be an Oxy / recommended offer in the region of 32p. This will knock out the current player and flush out a Gte or Geopark hostile bid at the 11th hour.
I would not rule out 50p+ just yet.
The absence of operational news on Plat would suggest to me that they are very much in bed with Oxy.