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normally the follow on press would be good because we would need punters to buy in to raise the SP. but, as things stand, the return on AMER shares is depending on if and at what level big fish want to swallow us up. i doubt they are swayed, or even reading, the daily mail.
Article Headline from the FT on 2 Aug "Investor disdain for fossil-fuel producers creates takeover bargains"
Mentions Amerisur - this is the part I found most interesting --> "Analysts at RBC Capital Markets have speculated New York-listed Geopark, which has assets neighbouring those of Amerisur in the Llanos basin, would be among the “most credible” candidates for any possible rival offer. "
I would think and hope they are not intentionally reducing production. Highly unlikely in my view. There is lots of reason why thoughput might be down. Possibly storing more due to oil price drop. (They did that before) could also be government taking there barrels from well head by truck again.
I find the lack of update regarding 3rd party crude disappointing
Any comments on Valuation based on latest presentation on Amerisur website?
Also it would appear per another poster - Amerisur are purposefully lowering their OBA production. H1 results already done & dusted & will be announced 2nd Week September. Plus as the other Amerisur chat board participant conveyed makes sense to lower production until strategic review completed - as we will get an offer based on barrels in the ground & more production translates to a lower price!!! I suppose cash that is to be collected/trade receivables don't have as much value??
HH taken over by Canaccord in 2017, having steadily increased share (and buying currently in the market : a million between 22nd and 24th July per 8.3) and now at 91,925,000. Our second largest holder after Michinoko at 134,452,585 (11.06%) and worth watching. They bought that last million at 17.795p.
March 2016 @ 25p and Hargreave Hale took 36 million.
9 March 2016 Amerisur Resources Plc
Results of placing
Amerisur Resources Plc ("Amerisur" or the "Company"), the oil and gas producer and explorer focussed on South America, is pleased to announce the successful completion of the proposed placing, as announced earlier today (the "Placing").
A total of 106,000,000 new ordinary shares of 0.1 pence each in Amerisur (the "Placing Shares") have been placed by Stifel, Investec and RBC at a price of 25 pence per Placing Share, raising net proceeds of approximately US$35 million.
To all interested, on advfn there is a post copied from MOS re at least 2 private equity firms interested....MM's new after the 17p bid there would be a lull until that bid is increased so they briefly push it to 19 to then drop it below 18 to push some stops out then down further into 17 area again to only push it back to around 20 when bid is increased........then further and last offer around 23 from m & p before the big boys come in and we have out high twenties early 30 talk.....still fancy GTE will do cash shares offer......just my thoughts.....
I'm not going to hypothesise about the eventual price paid for the company or have a minimum figure at which I would consider selling. I'm just going to wait patiently until the sale is finally resolved and hope that you good people do the same as the best price will be at the very end. Don't lose out by selling too cheaply just to get out of, what is for many of us, a nightmare share.
Firstly congratulations to Columbia for becoming first South American country to win the tour de France. Secondly been thinking about valuation. I would like it to be minimum 50% profit for those lth's who hold at the highest sp. Seems only fair.
Whilst puitting that asset valuation up, I am not suggesting we will get that figure.
Merely thats the bargin these bidders maybe playing for, even as they low ball up & the management high ball down.
Personally if the bids stalls at 25p I worry the management will walk from the table (& the SP nosedives) as soon as we get beyond 25p I reckon the deal is on & the risk comes off the table of a collapse.
After 25p im in till the end game, I wont care what the end deal will be, just reckon past 25p we are onto a winner.
1. CPO-5 to ONGC for premption rights so goes for industry base of $10pb to $12pb per barrel and $1 or $2pb for p50 resources or portion of 2P. Estimated value circa $250m (conservative) 2. Plat based on 4000bopd and 15mmboe $175m 3. OBA - Strategic worth $75m to $100m 4. PUT blocks 50% - $100m to $150m now OXY involved.(replace with $217m per my post below) 5. Cash in bank of $60m approx (based on reduced capex for 2019)
Total $650m to $750m (i get $800m) Equates to £520m to £600m(therefore £640m) Based on roughly 1.3bln shares in issue (assumes all management options exercised) Value 40p to 46p (im at 49p & comes with the bonus of telling my boss to go feck himself)
I also posted :-
Dont forget 30% CPO-5 is held in a separate subsidiary company & is therefore already packaged nicely to be sold separate from the remaining Amerisur assets.
Regarding the Oxy valuation.
The 50% we currently retain has control rights (so should be worth more than the bit we sold+we didnt take the highest bidder back then (now we would)) therefore :-