London South East prides itself on its community spirit, and in order to keep the chat section problem free, we ask all members to follow these simple rules. In these rules, we refer to ourselves as "we", "us", "our". The user of the website is referred to as "you" and "your".
By posting on our share chat boards you are agreeing to the following:
The IP address of all posts is recorded to aid in enforcing these conditions. As a user you agree to any information you have entered being stored in a database. You agree that we have the right to remove, edit, move or close any topic or board at any time should we see fit. You agree that we have the right to remove any post without notice. You agree that we have the right to suspend your account without notice.
Please note some users may not behave properly and may post content that is misleading, untrue or offensive.
It is not possible for us to fully monitor all content all of the time but where we have actually received notice of any content that is potentially misleading, untrue, offensive, unlawful, infringes third party rights or is potentially in breach of these terms and conditions, then we will review such content, decide whether to remove it from this website and act accordingly.
Premium Members are members that have a premium subscription with London South East. You can subscribe here.
London South East does not endorse such members, and posts should not be construed as advice and represent the opinions of the authors, not those of London South East Ltd, or its affiliates.
Wolster
In fact I have been posting on the AMER ADVFN BB since 2017. I certainly would consider taking 25p as that would be just over twice the “starting price”. The only thing that might change that would be news of significant drilling success - that would arguably reset the “starting price” a little higher. This could be a long process, so that is a possibility. Time will tell. I am just trying to look at this objectively and avoid wishful thinking.
Surprised by some of the comments this morning regarding the initial 17p offer. I see one poster was poised on the bell at 8.01 to make a contribution to the bb but never posted prior to Friday claiming to be a lth. You would think today is the 'end game' in relation to bids. This is just the start of the whole process, today's news only confirms that.
‘This is not the end, this is not even the beginning of the end, this is just perhaps the end of the beginning. WC
I just dont get why no one values the credit of $93m on the 50% sale, its not like we had $93m cash paid for it & that its somehow included in our bank.
We still have an unused $93m debit awaiting to go into our next financial statements of free seismics, please at least add that to calculations.
Rossannan
Hope you sell at 25p & then s## off back to the black hole of none posting on Amer that you came from.
As for the rest of us enjoy a day (one of many) in the Sun.
18p now being paid...
“You must never try to make all the money that’s in a deal. Let the other fellow make some money too, because if you have a reputation for always making all the money, you won’t have many deals.” JP Getty
BigBiteNow
Good post but be prepared to be labelled a troll for your more realistic approach to valuation.
The company have engaged the services of 2 brokers to manage any sale. You wouldn't do that if you accept the first offer that comes along. Valuation will be independently assessed which can only be good for shareholders.
Yes F1 game.
Over the weekend I attempted to put my conservative head on and achieve a base case value that considered the fact that an acquirer would want to achieve a healthy advantage from the assets.
Still there are some very clear valuations that can certainly be used as a base case and so the situation as I saw it was this ;
1. Cash (today) $50m.
2. OXY 50% in 4 blocks sold for $93m . Other 50% includes operatorship and a free carry on seismic, infrastructure and 5 drills. So for me there has to be minimum 20% more value in that = $110m.
3. Put 8 50% sold for $19m. Other 50% comes with operatorship. So again I would be thinking $25m.
So I am at $185m even without Platanillo and CP0-5, which hold all of the reserves.
As of March 2019 AMER held 25.6m in 2P reserves. Even at a conservative $7 pr barrel that comes out at $175m and 17.5m of those barrels sit within a block that has a pipeline that can carry those barrels all the way to the Esmeraldas Port for as little as $5 a barrel.
When I also consider that it is very well known that Indico 2 and 3 will likely open up considerably more reserves than have currently been booked against CP0-5, then the $7 a barrel looks bottom end to me even with a discount.
But even ignoring that and the OBA pipeline itself, and considering the fact this is not a sale that needs to happen, then the above figure should be a minimum target at $360m. That equates to £288m or 23.7p a share.
Having witnessed how the Ithaca Energy take out unfolded, I am prepared to be underwhelmed as the actual take out price seems to always come in under the expectation (unless you are Anardarko of course), but I feel there is more than enough discount and opportunity in my conservative approach to ensure that the BOD avoids anything below that mark.
It is however just my opinion as a shareholder and it is conservative in its nature for reasons I have already said.
Remember they received this offer before they issued the RNS last week, this means bod have already dismissed it and have issued formal sale rns to open the bidding up..!
17p barely covers the Oxy $100m. It is very cheeky, however you don't ask you don't get. If II's have any sense they'd have reviewed the BS/PL, current assets, potential, partners and the rest and will start buying in bulk. If it does not reach 20+ today on either buying pressure, or the speculation of other bidders making an approach I'd be disappointed. Hopefully, the PR machine will be kept busy over the next few weeks and keep pumping out information, ever raising the price! :)
I also take it as a positive that the actual bidder is not ONGC, OXY or GTE. That was perhaps signaled by the fact that AMER commenced the strategic review and invited all interested parties to declare their interests. That in turn indicates strongly what AMER think about the offer they have received and why they would consider breaking up the assets in order to realise a more substantial combined sale price.
It also looks very much like M&P know their animal and are looking to wrap this up asap and avoid any substantial gaisns that Indico 2 and 3 would bring.
Interesting times.
The wording "proposed offer" and lack of any BoD recommendation in the RnS (unless I missed it?) leads me to think they've likely dismissed this offer, and are using it to bring others out of the woodwork
That’s was a quick...first offer now in at 17p...next offer?
Morning JTD. Yes I spent much of the weekend mulling over the valuation for the company as I saw it and whilst I struggle to see a value being realised above 30p, I certainly see 25p as attainable. This is particularly true when I consider that the current interested party plus the other known potential buyers, hold little or no shares in the company at present.
I suspect that today's offer is designed to halt the speculation in the share price and put a cap on its growth until such time that M&P have had time to suss out the larger shareholders more thoroughly. I am with you that 17p just does not fly even when considering substantial discounts etc.
At that price and with circa $50m in the bank right now, I simply cannot see the likes of OXY and ONGC allowing an outside interest to pick up all of AMER physical assets for circa $200m. Its far too cheap.
so they'll be valuing their own shares at 4.5p whereas they're only 2.84 euros to buy now!!
Says they talked to significant shareholders over the weekend. Guess they are trying to convince that the share offer part with accelerated development and exposure to there wider portfolio will be attractive to II. Hopefully they are as underwhelmed as me!
But sell they will.
Classic bod
Hopefully a bidding frenzy ensues but this is a low starting point and everyone will feel pretty disappointed
It's a starting point but a silly offer, trying to convince shareholders 17p is good, not a chance, I and I believe the vast majority of shareholders will vote against that - hardy needs saying.
That look like why the BoD made an announcement, because they where going to go aggressive - there could start a buying frenzy now as suitor buy shares - anyone selling on the basis of that indicative price is an idiot IMO. The notice is designed to set expectations, IMO they know they'll have to pay more, GC will look like a real prat if he doesn't get significantly more.
Looks like I was right about offers including share swaps, for a share swap it should be a minimum of 30p IMO or we should see out the development of CPO-5, this is not a fire sale.
If you've any sense - let things play out