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Peel Hunt reckon Gran Tierra who recently raised a war chest and have operations close to AMER.
This is an out of favor sector and struggles to maintain even speculative equity interest, let alone debt finance.
Bank financing would be almost impossible and with high risk involved:personal guarantees that could be wipe out for Messrs. Clarke, Snow and Wardle, who have all stashed the cash from previous company sales (and that indicates their exit strategy). I doubt if they would have been able to renegotiate the company RBL facility, such is the change in sentiment since the last cycle of high POO.
Just looking at how hard it is in the oil space to raise finance, it is worth taking a look at the likes of i3E to see how difficult it is to get anything other than equity finance. Funding there (after a long time) is by an equity raise of £18 million plus £22 million junior loan notes: the sting is in the tail: warrants of an amount equal to the loan notes are being washed into the market and will protect risk on the loan notes. The prospects are good, with a 70% COS, but that is the market story.
AMER will finally morph into a debt free cash cow throwing off decent cash dividends or get bought out by one of the majors, expanding its Colombian operation, getting economies of scale and for whom access to funding is not an issue. My money is on the latter and it will come as a surprise if it is not OXY, with a size 12 boot already in the door.
Well I wouldn't expect them to pony up themelves - MBOs usually involve bank financing
FYI part of the cash is restricted and the balance in no way equates to even the current market cap, let alone any form of premium to tempt the IIs or PIs to sell.
To put figures to your folly, at a small premium to current SP ( say at 15p per share) they would have to find £150 million out of their back pockets: this is NOT an AIM minnow to be sold for a few quid out of its own petty cash!
Well SOL has moved on from a squiggly line to pay zones of 26ft and 10ft respectively of light oil and that does help interpret the adjacent squiggly lines in the play as a whole.
Interestingly, it was JW who effectively said at the 2018 AGM that there was no substitute for drilling to gain information and was suggesting that they should just go ahead and drill in the north east on trend from the Llanos 34 fields.
We still have 7.5 million SOL (0.65%) and so negativity is to be expected: at some stage, those shorts need to close (as they have done on HUM, where SOL went from 2.59%, from recollection, to zero in the current rise: inside information, that there will not be the expected placing?). Here, of course, there will be no placing and so reliance must be that FIL continues to offload and that we do not suddenly get a good news update.
With a 3 trick pony, our own activities , OXY and ONGC, all capable of delivering upside, I would have thought that at the current SP, going long has to be the better trading strategy.
Here's a thought! Perhaps GC, JW and the Finance Director, whose name I refuse to remember on the basis he seems completely detached from the business, are planning to take the whole gig private and stitch up a deal away from peskey shareholders. They don't need to raise money (cash in bank) so why retain the listing; what deals they have done have been done for cash, and this would allow them to cash up but keep the business. MBO any one?
Lets hope so
Not being a follower of cricket I wouldn't know. Then he's got a two week window.
Now the cricket is over??
The Ashes starts in 2 weeks and runs for a 5 weeks. I don't think you'll see Giles lifting anything other than a champagne glass.
That's E&P for your! In order to drill a well, any driller has to have a positive view of the outcome of that well, otherwise the well would never be drilled. The problem is that drilling wells isn't full proof. It's all based on someone(s) idea of what a few squiggly lines of seismic may represent. The squiggly lines themselves were the result of someone else(s) efforts to convert sound reflections into squiggly lines. And this is then viewed in the context of someone else(s) basin modelling of what they think may have happened between 10 million and 150 million years ago. It's not for widows and orphans.
Now the cricket is over GC can pull his finger out and concentrate on his businesses. Today he's put Ironveld up for sale with a glowing RNS which seems to be reviving the sp a bit, albeit from a pitifully low level. Could AMER be next or will we have to wait while he attends to his other African hole in the ground (and hole in many portfolios) KZG.
If you go back a little further, you will find I was very positive about this share.
However I do feel duped & my opinion has dropped along with my stock value.
I therefore seek to find the cause of my losses, time & again that buck appears to rest with the directors, rather than the assets (which lured me into this loss trap).
Mostly I have tried to stay away from the boards as my now (negative) attitude would be unwelcome(& frankly doesn't help squat all), & I best go back into the dark for awhile whilst awaiting our business transformational year.
Hi wolster, I respect that you have a very negative view on what seems like every post you have on Amer and all I can find here is your positive view on BCN. However as your u have previously pointed out the white elephant in other posts I would like to just add that JW is one of the biggest share holders in Amer with around 3 percent and has purchased around 10 million shares over last year or so. I would therefore disagree with a lot of your rationale. Of course there will be a second and third rig at some stage, you only need to read the tenders on the ONGC Videsh website to conclude that. Clearly ground work needs to be in place before the next phase begins.
Well thats cleared that up then, must lob more funds at this gem, maybe ill be able to prop up the share price with my investment. Cause carn't see the BOD (hell of alot more draining the coffers than JW(who is the best of the lot of them)) doing anything to prop up the sp.
Whilst you would say why should they care about the SP as long as they concentrate on the business.
I would say they seem to be expanding the business at about the same rate as their director remuneration pots, what a lovely basis to earn piles of cash whilst not giving a crap about the shareholders.
Wheres our transformational year, wheres our lake of oil, wheres our 2nd rig. In fact where the f*** are our BOD ?
I rather think we have a bunch of monkeys (JW aside) running this business, being paid like rockstars.
Seriously they must be sitting round the boardroom table counting the cash in the bank, thinking how do we extract that pile of notes into our pockets vs the shareholders.
Whilst they await Oxy or the Indians to come do some work on their behalf.
Why would I focus on what someone else gets?
At the end of the day, if JW delivers EE mark 2 then he is welcome to both his salary and bonus: I would prefer that he did not have his rewards before I get my share of the pie, but so long as he does not crash the company with greed, then I will live with that, so long as I can see that he is rewarded for progress.
Largely, the company has been self funding whilst it consolidates/expands, so they do, by AIM standards, "earn their keep".
Last year JW delivered the OXY deal and Indico, both validating what he has been up to since the Platinillo "cash cow" which has been helping AMER to tick over through the negative part of the oil cycle: IMO, he deserves his salary and bonus (particularly when he ploughs chunks of it back into on market purchases, aligning his interest with mine).
You could, of course, pay peanuts and get a monkey: plenty out there on AIM for a couple of hundred grand a year (or you could be really unlucky and pay more for less, such as Sefton and the hapless AAOG, joking at presentations and with a fresh disgrace emerging every day).
So, no, I don't post about JW's take because I can appreciate what he has done so far and have every expectation that he will deliver and I will collect handsomely on my investment in him.
They could provide an update on Plat workovers. ONGC run the show on CPO-5 so not much the Bod's can do there. But other ops can be communicated to shareholders including Quarterly production update.
Been so quiet here, it almost feels like the quiet before the takeover storm?
The real problem Juxtapose is everyone is so one sided focused.
Lets take your post, not a single mention of shares for the boys, or large director remuneration.
I find share supporters here often convieniently miss these facts.
Just like the posters knocking the share miss off much of the facts you raise.
First the BOD get criticized for over optimism and then for not "defending our interests" presumably by not talking this up?
Very few AIM companies are successful and this, at least, has shown financial prudence and an ability to seize (or possibly create) the low cost opportunities (yet to be properly monetized, although Indico is a start).
The real problem is that there are no investors willing to see what is obviously a long term strategy through to the end, with the full development of CPO-5 (and we can see just in this year how much that has ramped up and will ramp up: all those tender documents for surface infra structure and multiple well development) and the OXY deal.
Blame where it is due: it took ANH six months to approve the OXY deal and probably a similar time frame for PUT 8, delaying the projected well there. We are also expecting environmental permits in August: there just seem to be no obvious short cuts through the bureaucratic processes. That said, it is no better in the UK: look at any of the proposed big infra structure projects.
It is frustrating waiting for the rig to return to Indico 2 and hoping that Sol and the side track have added to BOPD, but news flow has been steady over the last 9 months and mostly showing that the company is moving in the right direction and with high price oil as a background.
In terms of production growth over the last 3 years then you have a valid point but I'm willing to bet production around 10,000 bopd by year end.
The strategy over the last 3-4 years has transformed AMER's prospects in terms of acreage and prospective resources albeit at some short term cost to production and the share price.
AMER has cash in the bank and no debt so there's no cashflow issues or default risk.
I'm happy to sit back and wait for Q4 & Q1.
Mathurin - hope you are right, but at the moment I can't see any bright light just a dim flicker that keeps going out.
Unlike some I don't want this to be taken out if that appears to be the only near term release from this pile of sh*te that our BoD have delivered us, it would put us out of our long term misery, like you I still have hopes of realising something like true value but I see a BoD that is completely impervious to shareholder pain. No Wonder II's are selling
I keep harping on about the same underlying factor, I believe this is pain inflicted by our BoD and even if the BoD can't put a stop to it, I'm damned sure they could do more to defend our interests than ignore the problems.
After years of operational disappointment, IMO the problem is now more strategic and our strategy man, GC seems like he gone AWAL, there is no visibility of any strategy to improve, simply to let JW carry on as usual.
Replying to JTD comment on the contrast to sporting success and the Amer SP - it’s exactly that / backing the team which is not succeeding / like the football team at the bottom of the league .
As a kid England was a sleepy cricket team always lacking the fighting spirit of the Australians- how things have changed .Despite the constant descent of Amer I am still convinced that there is a bright light at the end of the tunnel .