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Very fine by me if DavidWK has the last laugh here.
I expect there would be a number million pound winners within our ranks if his calls were even semi close to right.
Dare to dream I say, but, if history is anything to go by, perhaps not while playing AIM.
I am in awe of your ability low probability estimation for rare events, how do you do it?
Note however that I believe 1 in a million events are "A Bridge Too Far" for most grown ups.
DavidWK got me thinking there; and, eventually, I concluded that a 70 p take out this year is less likely than this reaching £1 by the end of 2020 if the company stays independent. I assign a 1 in 50 chance of the earlier and 1 in 40 chance of the latter.
Think you might be waiting a while, davo.
For me, the offer to sell by Xmas must be 70p. Otherwise I am happy to wait end of 2020 for £1.
To be fair, JTD, that is what the market is currently pricing in.
If a sale was 100% nailed on, this would be closer to the eventual take out price.
That is why it is important that there is also business as usual and why I want to see the Indico 2 spud and something happening on Put 8 and Put 9. From recollection, at the AGM, permits were due on the latter in August. We need to start seeing some operation announcements and more drilling.
Fev - I'm not saying that the sale is anything other than by far the most likely outcome, just that other possibilities still exist until the money changes hands and we shouldn't stop being curious until we're got our money - we need to keep our eye on the ball.
I appreciate many shareholder don't want to consider anything other than a clean sale now, but I will because I don't want to get ripped off.
Colonel questioned why I'm bothering as the sale is certain, it's not, the Strategic review may determine we should not sell at the offers tendered - what if we are only offered 25p and there is a clear alternative path to double that .
this wont be independent come Xmas....
Oh- forgot to mention wrt your comment "...I don't know why you're bothering to speculate as it has no bearing on the process going forwards"
How can the ongoing relationship between the BoD and the company's biggest shareholder have no bearing on the process - it may well be the thing that precipitated the process.
Without wishing to get in between you and the Colonel, long experience of advising companies in public M&A means that I hove to the Colonel's view. Whilst there may well be many a slip between lip and cup, the game's up for this management team as evidenced by GC's attempted manged exit from his various vehicles. This is AIM not the FTSE100 and whilst there will be institutions and individuals who may cavil about the eventual takeout price, this is going, going gone....and they will be happy to recycle the cash elsewhere. All of your points are well JtD but I just think that barring the announcement of a world class find that gushes black gold or an absolute collapse in world equity markets, this will be independent come Xmas.
Colonel - Totally disagree, but if it works for you then all you need to speculate about is the price.
Personally, having seen bids fall through, companies sold of a pittance, taken private, gone into packaged administration to allow director to takeover for a pittance, activist investor blow the entire thing out of the water etc.
What I'm saying is your "the company will be sold. That's that." is a very blinkered view to say the least. If that were the case we would all be totally relaxed and simply speculating on the eventual price and timescale - some are but it's incredible naïve.
Shareholders don't get a satisfactory price.
Big shareholder become activist and oust the BoD in favour of a new set-up
The situation changes in respect to all manner of things including security and oil price
Indico-2 produces at a phenomenal rate (nearby wells have produced at over 10000bpd)
We accept it will happen in a fatalistic way then the BoD do not need to represent our interest quite so strongly.
Whatever, there are lots of shareholders and some have a totally different perspective on a fair/likely SP else the SP would be static, as I said yesterday it's a long way from over. With your view though, you may as well spend your time looking at something else.
I don't know why you're bothering to speculate as it has no bearing on the process going forwards. The formal sale process is underway and all or bits of the company will be sold. That's that. If Giles or JC or JW no longer text each other every night, then that's no business of mine. GC was lucky to survive the last AGM so his incentive is clear for all to see. He wants out before he gets pushed out.
JW looked tired although still excited by AMER's opportunities. Once an oil man always an oil man. But neither of them are getting younger and the commodity oil and gas sector is not what it used to be. Finally, when the stars align it's good business to take advantage. Colombia is hot property right now and onshore productive licence blocks are a rarity. Many companies (big) want to move away from MENA region. It's too volatile. Africa is and will always be a major risk. Argentina is in turmoil and Colomnia/Ecuador can step up and fill that commercial gap which is why the majors are sniffing around with keen interest.
So I wouldn't read too much into JC/JW and GC. It's more about the 'time is right' and they are all astute businessmen with proven accumen and previous successful company sales.
Colonel - it's not about the money, I'm sure none of them are strapped for cash, though I don't think pushing up to £1m is beer money to anyone bar the super rich, they're not on the Richard Branson or Warren Buffett scale.
It's more about the potential falling out, most likely over progress and following on from that if this is being done for the good of all shareholders or perhaps for some other reason like the benefit of the inner circle (the BoD) in a messy divorce. If the BoD where given the elbow would Michinoko perhaps stick with this a little longer and see CPO-5 to fruition.
Michinoko stake in Ironveld is currently worth £600k. That's beer money to JC and JW. Even if Ironveld went for £12m, it's still only £1.2m. So important to keep these things in content.
A 10% stake in AMER based on a £300m to £400m valuation is £30m to £40m. That's big money and Michinoko will want top price.
But Michinoko and management do not have enough votes/shares to dictate the direction of AMER. Major shareholders and PI's are the ones that will determine what gets accepted and what doesn't.
Ironveld proceeds might well be required to pay for the JC/GC/JW post AMER sale party. That's about all it's worth.
Agreed that definitely not a coincidence. Suspect Michinoko wanting out / or some of the assets.
I don't buy the GC retirement argument. Why not retire and remain invested until best time to sell?
I think not, Ironveld (NH director, JW major shareholder and GC- chairman mining enterprise) was one of the biggest rises on AIM yesterday after announcing an update on it's strategic review. Apparently "the Company has entered into confidentiality agreements with several parties interested in potentially making an offer to purchase all or part of the Company's assets", it's too much of a coincidence for me and I suspect in the case of Amerisur and Ironveld the guys have made the running and it is they and/or Michinoko that are driving events.
Major shareholders are
Tracarta Ltd. 68,680,767 11.6% - JW's investment vehicle
Michinoko Ltd. 54,592,653 9.22% - Jeremy Coller
Looks like there could have been a falling out (as reported by the times) or perhaps retirement or even cashing up for a new venture as they work closely as a team. If Michinoko are the driving force then there is no way they will cash in early IMO.
The plot thickens, here's the RNS:
"12 August 2019
("Ironveld" or the "Company")
Update on Strategic Review
Ironveld plc, the owner of a High Purity Iron ("HPI"), vanadium and titanium project located on the Northern Limb of the Bushveld Complex in Limpopo Province, South Africa, is pleased to announce that as part of the strategic review of its mining assets announced on 2 July 2019, the Company has entered into confidentiality agreements with several parties interested in potentially making an offer to purchase all or part of the Company's assets. Ironveld is currently in the process of providing such parties with further information on the Company's assets and access to the Company's site, management and advisers.
The Company is encouraged by the level of interest it has received to date and looks forward to working with interested parties to further the strategic review.
Further interested parties are encouraged to read the research report available at https://researchlibrary.finncap.com/User/Login that sets out the potential for the Company's assets to become a vertically integrated vanadium mining and processing business, as well as review the Company website (www.ironveld.com/). Such parties should also contact finnCap through the details set out at the bottom of this announcement."