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Hello willec, I was rather surprised by your post this morning. What’s changed since you posted the comments below? Why do you now “get the feeling we are all being screwed over by management” just a week after they announced that multiple parties have signed confidentiality agreements so as to participate in the formal sales process and advised us not to sell our shares?
On August 7th, you were “Very happy to keep adding.”
On Thursday you wrote, “It feels it can't be too long now, those aree twwo massive trades gone through. 20p very soon - got to be.”
Later on Thursday you wrote , “Was thiis [the new website] launched today? Maybe another set with big news to come very shortly.”
Then on Friday morning you wrote, “Looks very strong to have a surge to minimum of 19p I wander if people will load up today.”
I totally agree which is why I ignore most of them
Willec / it’s a tough job that you have sought - to be the most accurate soothsayer for Amer ‘s SP - you must realise that the LSE chat room for Amer
Is reserved for sophisticated investors who loath amateurish comments.
Think the were mothballed with vitually no more money being spent on them in the forseeable.
Amer do have a habit of just 'forgetting' about their failures!
?Paraguay Projects ·do not exist in new website....have Amer sold the licenses or released them as no suitor is interested in Paraguay?....
will not be below the 17p already offered and Michinoko want out so they will make sure it happens. otherwise the BOD Know they will have a disgruntled seller off loading and crippling the sp for another two year period as per last dissatisfied large investor. So the boards only option is to get the best price. I still believe like pickled peck that we will get a much better price than we currently stand at and they can sell just CPO5 for 250 million if the Indians want it so badly. That gets us the equivalent of our first offer more or less. Then all other sells are a bonus. Plus divi up cash in hand and that is another 4pIf you take the rest worth at least another 16p so theoretically aprox 37p. Wow not far off what stifel valued it at. and I concur. But the sooner the deals are done the better in my opinion. That is why I have always maintained that 40p bid would potentially come inform left side and take the very lucrative prize at a very reasonable price for all parties concerned. GLA
Well said pickedpeck!
...apparently also own about 9% of President Energy (PPC) per their Feb presentation. The CEO there is calling all the shots given he has 30%.
I know this isn’t directly AMER, but I thought it might be of interest to some of you.
pickedpeck: thank you for making me laugh this morning!
another fine post pickedpeck.. thanks
Ps; I used think the AIM market was stupidly undervaluing many many of its listed companies. After plenty of AIM companies I've bet - long - on continually not delivering anything like they expect to - but not all fortunately, and the occasional big win makes up for a lot of AIM misery - I actually now see the AIM market as, on average, reasonably - MM manipulation and lack of liquidity etc... have me use the word reasonably only granted - efficient: most companies on AIM actually turn out to be cr+p for one reason or other. So the market is tired of being burned and has adapted by saying we'll indtead price your share as lowly as possible - eg as though failure is likely/very likely - and you prove us wrong. (granted this makes it harder again to prove the market wrong - eg the next raise has to be hugely more dilutive again because the s/p is so low at time of raise... etc..) And most AIM companies actually do prove the market right by being in effect zombies/effectively failing/actually failing or, slightly better granted, pyrrhic victories (eg even after a big bounce from lows it's galaxies away from original or earlier highs )
AIM becoming far more a short term trading venue than a buy and hold venue is a natural development against such a backdrop.
All that said, because of its assets/profits/ money in bank etc Amerisur is not one of those seemingly endless Cr+p AIM companies imho.... and we are hopefully about to prove the market wrong by getting taken out for a lot more than 12p.. hopefully!!!
The management team run the company, the market values the shares. The problem with that situation is the two are disconnected. As you say the company is in a far better position than last year, the management team are the ones that did that, not you or I or any other shareholder.
The share price has been crappy for several reasons
1. The oil sector as a whole is unloved and out of fashion.
2. Progress has been slower than expected
3. AIM has become a place where morons expect a quick buck.
4. Despite OBA commissioning, Indico discovery, several acquisition deals, a moderate oil price recovery, a big farm in from a global partner, and election of a stable business friendly government in Colombia the combined effect of the first three factors means the share price is half where it was before any of those positive things happened.
Point 4 is why the company will leave the public market, there is a value imbalance between what AIM 'investors' think the company is worth and what industry peers, the management, and PE believe it to be worth.
A lot of people on this board have tried to do bottom up valuations, but before M&P showed interest it was worth 12p a share because that's what the market would pay for it. M&P believed it to be a steal at 50% more than that, so here we are hovering around 17.5p, their offer, as the market isn't investing in the probability of a higher offer coming in. That's despite management strongly advising shareholders not to sell, telling us there are multiple interested parties, and repeatedly presenting information on the prospectivity and increasing value of the asset base. They clearly believe the company to be worth a lot more than the share price, and for the most part have backed that stance with their own money.
So the bottom line is the market is stupid as the market is made up of people just like you, wishful thinkers, gamblers, people wanting instant returns and impatient when they don't materialise. The stupid market is now being impatient about a deal rather than impatient about exploration. There is nothing the management of the company could or should do just to please a set of impatient morons. They should just focus on getting the best deal for the sale of the company, and running the business as effectively as possible in the meantime. You can either wait in the belief that a better deal will come, or sell and move on to the next dream. Personally I am gambling a quite large amount of money on what I believe to be the very high probability of a deal being done at a better price than today, but I don't actually know any more than you (assuming you've read all the material available too) , and accept the risk that it is possible that it may not happen.
That long explanation was better than saying 'FFS Willec grow some balls and shut up whingeing, you sound like a kid that's dropped its dummy and wants some sweets' which is the sentiment I am sure crossed a few minds.
Why with this share do you get the feeling we are all being screwed over by management. Do they really want this to succeed. We reach 20p earlier last year and were in a far worse position that now. Are the management totally imcompetent. My target of 50p seems a complete no hoper. We might get 12p when this falls through. My question is how do the incompetent get to run a FTSE AIM company. Come on get your act together a bit of GOOD PR to get the market to notice would help wouldn't it.
JW Gets the Presentation Ready for the AGM, the majority of our output is controlled by ONGC, they verbally agree 18 rigs, global seismic investment, huge infra structure & we hold the cash back and drilling elsewhere - and they then go back on their word. In one way CPO5 is a PR disaster for Amer ONGC know it part of our making !!. So no point forecasting, Coersive Control. This will be broken this year + then Amer will either be taken over, broken up - CPO5 sold or bought and we are free. Cause ladies we are not there at the moment, JW is NOT in control and the MM know it and hence we are discounted SIMPLES . How can JW address the City with a plan that's fundamentally thwarted to deliberate manipulation against the business to buy CPO5 on the cheap FFS - done for ONGC to buy time and get a HQ decision on the block. . That's why we are here Searg? - them feckin Indians. Not for too long IMO DYOR. Saving grace the II's who have held & Mickinko and the BOD buying in. I 'm glad - at last we are doing something about this, look at M1 FFS closed after 199ft Net pay +5kbiopd we are getting well and truly played. End it -To be, or not to be? That is the question—Whether 'tis nobler in the mind to suffer The slings and arrows of outrageous fortune, Or to take arms against a sea of troubles- yes NO more suffering the slings and arrows of outrageous Indians, Or to take arms against a sea of troubles, And, by opposing, end them, only if the
II's and other voting rights buy in.All to gain - little to lose as Amer has lost the respect of the City - Directly because of ONGC bombing a world class discovery and we our BOD we too lazy to counter the Decetacons with multiple options and a twet FD FFS HNY. I want pay back. Last post feckin work tmz, because I'm that type of girl- graft. Which GC can't spell.
Ecopetrol SA - $693,640,000,000
Sinopec - $583,990,000,000
Private Equity - The Carlyle Group - $212,000,000,000 (assets under management)
Total SA - $115,000,000,000 (est.)
Occidental Petroleum Corporation - $39,790,000,000
Oil and Natural Gas Corporation - $24,026,158,657
Hess Corporation - $17,420,000,000
Parex Resources Inc - $2,340,000,000
GeoPark Limited - $1,110,000,000
Frontera Energy Corp. - $966,480,000
Etablissements Maurel et Prom - $654,280,000
Gran Tierra Energy Inc - $606,000,000
Private Equity - Michinoko ?
Vetra Group - n/a
Private Equity - TBC
Insiders - MBO.
just the way they design them now,? i think.
Near $0.25M in GTE stock buys. A signal that GTE's value is about to increase? By Acquisition?
Gran Tierra Energy Inc. (cdi) (GTE)
Director name: Wade,Brooke
Amount purchased: 110,900 @ $1.44
Gran Tierra Energy Inc. (cdi) (GTE)
Director name: Wade,Brooke
Amount purchased: 56,500 @ $1.43
Gran Tierra Energy Inc. (cdi) (GTE)
Director name: Wade,Brooke
Amount purchased: 17,600 @ $1.42
think it is a waste of money given the surrounding circumstances.
also - a "refresh" can cover a multitude of sins. one can not locate records that were there of who said what where when and why.
" 'shorters' borrow stock from II's "
- so the less IIs, the better????
"It's almost as if they are bored and playing around while awaiting the formal sale process to unfold."
hey, hey, hey, Colonel - i think we all know THAT feeling.
Whatever the outcome of the offers I've topped up with another 10000
@JTD Personally I don't believe we are yet at the point of concern over the Indico-2 drill. It has still 'only' been 3 weeks since the 29th July update and the to date limited history on CP0-5 supports an argument that ONGC will take between 5-7 weeks between drills.
Indico to Calao 1 = 33 days
Calao to Sol-1 = 46 days
There is an argument to be had with the 6.5 weeks was between Indico-1 and Calao-1 that there was at the very least discussions/disagreements between the partners over the strategy that stretched that period out. On 26th March AMER stated clearly that the Indico-2 appraisal would be next but after the long wait came Sol-1.
Whatever the reasoning the form says we have up to 3 more weeks before the drill start and until we are beyond that point there is little factual evidence to suggest that anything else is going on.
II's will always be a mystery. Some sell 1.5m shares and then buy 1.5m shares. Trading their way to gaining something from that volume in tight ranges. It's almost as if they are bored and playing around while awaiting the formal sale process to unfold. Investors need to understand that 'shorters' borrow stock from II's and the II's get a fee in return. So if company X is shorting AMER based on Say R&M reducing, then their position becomes neutral to some extent. Most II's can complete sales at 18p or 17p and still make the same amount of money due to short hedges. Their goal is simply to shift volumes of stock without losing value in the process. The bots or algos will be programmed with the 'trade' and then they get it done. The irony is, these days dark pools are done in even darker pools after the original pools were banned due to being offbook and behind closed doors. These darker pools might have been traded days ago and the trades you see now are simply tidying the books up. Very naughty stuff but then since when has the market been whiter than white?
I'm off now to fiddle with the libor rate.
I'm joking of course.
twice I have "strongly" been advised not to sell.
Some good comments, chaps and chapesses.
"ONGC can’t stall forever" - another thought whcih has been on my mind.
The branding of the tender "are you even surprised" sticks in my craw.
Time for the ColGov to put some pressure on. Now, where did I putting the president's twitter account...