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Bumbling - I agree that in order to conclude the sale in Q4 they have to have a pretty near bid submission date. It will have to go to a shareholder vote, and after the vote there will still be 4-6 weeks of activities to conclude the transfer. I also think to get the sale done this year 31st October bids submission date would be reasonable, at the absolute latest second week in November but then the end of the process starts to clash with christmas. Bids in by 31st, evaluated and then a recommended offer put to shareholders within two weeks of that.
‘Take no further action with their shares’ does that mean not to buy anymore?! I’m seriously considering going in bigger on this. What does anyone think are the risks. Presumably a no sake, if so, would the SP plummet?
formal sales process (the "FSP") entered into on 19 July 2019. Last update was the 11th October. In the last update they said “The Company has conducted a thorough process to date, including the provision of large amounts of data to interested parties and their advisors through virtual and physical data rooms.” So interested parties from further afield potentially, that couldn’t get to the physical data rooms. There is “Multiple well-funded parties are engaged in the process.” So it’s fair to conclude offers will be tabled.
“The Company has issued revised bidding instructions to interested parties, inviting firm proposals to acquire the entire issued and to be issued share capital of the Company (the "Bidding Instructions").” So bidding instructions have been handed out, it is therefore fair to assume a bidding submission date. Is long is reasonable from issue of bidding instructions, I’d guess couple of weeks which is pretty much end of month and everyone likes a round date. I’d guess bids in by 31st or 1st.
The Bidding Instructions make clear that proposals should include confirmation that any potential bidder is in a position to comply with requirements of the UK Takeover Code relating to Cash Confirmation (Rules 2.7(d) and 24.8).
The Company is seeking to conclude the FSP in Q4 2019. Further updates will be provided in due course. Shareholders are encouraged to take no further action with regard to their shares.
@Bigsmoke - Nope, 10% wasn't the reason I bought either. I was intending to hold for recovery, it just seems there is more down than up there at the moment. I put the money into HZM which is another punt on another commodity :)
The debt story here is weird. The lack of debt has enabled AMER to buy up the asset base it has through exploiting liabilities and commitments of rivals without going to the banks, but they have managed to produce effectively a net zero profit for a couple of years despite no interest payments. They've done this by minimising the NAV changes, almost going out of their way to avoid having a tax liability. Quite clever really. For debt in an oilie Baysil's PMO baby, or ENQ really highlight how you can be punished despite decent production. ENQ have 68k bopd production (10x AMER's), but the mkt cap is only just ahead of AMER due to their crushing debt pile. Imagine what 68kbopd would be worth debt free!
@pickedpeck - "Don't forget the ... stamp duty in your calculation" - there is no SD for AIM... Well done on PDL. you are a better investor than I. not a hard thing. i am not in it for 10% here and there (although that seems to work for a lot of folk these days). PDL should still come good, after, we hope, AMER has been successfully disposed of. guess the (current) story of PDL is just the extent of the effect that high debt can have on a company. which begs the question - just what effect can NO debt have on a company? If PDL is so punished, AMER should be most desired.
Bigsmoke - sold those PDL shares you let me have a few weeks ago. Decided the update on Monday wasn't as good as I'd hoped, still copped 10% profit though so not all bad. Bunsen - I've got quite a lot of shares here, - not in TR1 territory quite yet, but I've pretty much already gone as large as I care to. Its tempting to buy more but that's quite a big enough punt for me on this. Nothing is ever certain in investing, it is all about probabilities. I think there is a very high probability of a good return here, but I nor anyone else here should ever tell you what to do with your money, that's your decision. @ the dude with the 4 share sale... Don't forget the buying fees and stamp duty in your calculation. I think you should be ok to ignore any CGT consequences for now though.
9th of August they also said: 'Shareholders are strongly advised to take no action in respect of their shares until completion of the FSP.' We all got a bit excited about the use of the word 'strongly' at the time, the latter wording is more normal.
"...AMER's announcement to shareholders not to sell during this process." @leas - 11.10.19 the company rowed back a tad "Shareholders are encouraged to take no further action with regard to their shares."
Any talks with interested parties will have a non disclosure agreement in place. Usual practice as it is price sensitive to all involved. The company could say talks or progress is going well, or announce a rejected offer. My view is that we will get an announcement 'out of the blue' and can only reiterate AMER's announcement to shareholders not to sell during this process.
Thanks and yes that sounds like a fair assessment. I am also invested and am wondering if I should invest more if it is so clear this will be bought out. But I am quite happy with how much I have in so will sit tight and wait. I'm sure it will be one of those that when it does get sold we'll all be saying how we knew it was going to happen and how annoying it was that we didn't put more money where our mouths were