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Robin could apply for the geologist job, it would help bolster his meagre salary and it appears there isn't much to do in the office at the mo !!
GB33
If you read the NI43-101 that ShadowLess post, not that I read it all and from memory, there was a very large estimated CAPEX for the development of Malmyzh.
But I’m pretty sure you’re right when you say “who knows whose hands they will end up in.” After all why should the Russians do things any differently to the way we do?
TDT
Hi TDT,
“Difficult to draw any meaningful conclusions”
And that’s the truth of it.
In the typical Russian way I suspect the sale of Malmyzh to RCC is far less clear than $200mn changing hands.
It’s no coincidence that 12 months after the sale RCC signed a loan deal at the Eastern Economic Forum with the Far East Development Fund for 142bn roubles ($2bn at the time). That’s a lot of money to build an industrial complex at the mine.
That loan will generate a lot of contracts and consultancies and who knows whose hands they will end up in.
Tom Bowens will have gained invaluable experience both at IGC and more recently at RCC. Presumably he is using that knowledge to our \ his advantage.
ShadowLess
I suspect it will be really difficult to draw any meaningful conclusions from IG Copper's sale of Malmyzh. Apart from the fact that it’s a different commodity and a different period in time the physical differences are very significant. One simple but significant difference is the access to infrastructure.
I’ll take my hat off to anybody who tries and I’ll do so a second time if they come up with anything meaningful or useful.
TDT
Attempt 2!!!!
TDT, no problems, thought you might like some bedtime reading
To be honest, was hoping someone smarter than me would abridge the +150 page report and tell me if there are any similarities and/or useful information that we can glean from it, hint, hint, nudge, nudge!!
TDT, No problems, thought you might like some bedtime reading!!
To be honest, was hoping someone smarter than me would abridge the +150 page report and tell me if there are any similarities and/or useful information we can glean, hint hint nudge nudge!!!
ShadowLess
V. interesting. Thanks for posting.
TDT
Too add
I do think the times I presented was on the optimistic side of things, therefore, I would guess that IGC was somewhere between TEO and Mining Development Plan phase of the project.
I like to think that TB used his experience with IGC and have advised AMC to keep all options open and look at both Russian and western resource / reserve estimates if we want to maximise value
what stage were they at
From the report and some assumptions:
According to the report "TEO of Permanent Conditions" was the next step, thus, lets assume the TEO takes 1 year to complete, submit and approved - July 2016
- following on from that the 'Mining Development Plan say another year to complete, submit and approved - July 2017
- FSP may take a year or more ?? not sure when in 2018 IGC was sold?
Other observations:
- Orreoll performed the "Technical-Economic Justification (TEO) of Temporary Conditions"
- No mention of a DFS/BFS or western reporting standards
- These "reserves" do not meet NI 43-101 or CIM requirements
I wondering if TB had something to say about the two points above? with his experience of IGC sale?
Some heavy reading, unless you are RosyLee then it is light reading
the report is old (2015) in respect to when IGC was sold (2018), doesn't answer the original question, but I thought some folks might find it interesting to read.
Report by WAI written alongside IGC, unfortunately not all the headings were completed such as project cost elc..
http://cdn.ceo.ca.s3-us-west-2.amazonaws.com/1di54dq-EMX-2015-Malmyzh+NI+43-101+Final+Report.pdf
Yikes... Great bargain for somebody.
Hi Madmat,
I can no longer trace the original source but there used to be a project summary on the IG Copper website. In it the NPV was $1.7bn, so sale price around 12% of NPV.
Thanks TDT, yes I had seen that article. Whilst its interesting there is not much to help compare with AMC potential sale value.
It does say towards the end "As metal prices improve, Bowens notes this will further boost the value of the Malmyzh project (estimated at US$430 million)." But estimated how...? Is this a PFS NPV estimate with +/- 25% and copper price of $2.5... or BFS/TEO estimate +/- 10% and copper price of $3.5 --- We don't know!
If we take a giant leap of logic and assume IGC was sold for about half its NPV, this leads to a guesstimated sale value for AMC of about $300M, or about 22p per share (based on our PFS NPV @ $8/lb nickel price).
Obviously this is all conjecture
Thanks TDT, yes I had seen that article. Whilst its interesting there is not much to help compare with AMC potential sale value.
It does say towards the end "As metal prices improve, Bowens notes this will further boost the value of the Malmyzh project (estimated at US$430 million)." But estimated how...? Is this a PFS NPV estimate with +/- 25% and copper price of $2.5... or BFS/TEO estimate +/- 10% and copper price of $3.5 --- We don't know!
If we take a giant leap of logic and assume IGC was sold for about half its NPV, this leads to a guesstimated sale value for AMC of about $300M, or about 22p per share (based on our PFS NPV @ $8/lb nickel price).
Obviously this is all conjecture
MadMat
I replied to you earlier but the post seems to have disappeared.
IG Copper is/was a private U.S. based company so they're under no obligation to make public anything.
I presume you have seen this article?
https://www.northernminer.com/news/site-visit-igc-advances-malmyzh-russias-far-east/1003781516/
At $200m Malmyzh seems to me to have been a bargain. Admittedly it was sold the end of 2018 and back then copper was wedged between $2.50 and $3.00 per lb. so bit of a difference between then and now.
The take away from the sale of Malmyzh if anything! Getting a premium for a half decent asset in Russia will be a challenge.
TDT
IG Copper was/is a privately held U.S. company so there's unlikely to be anything on file to answer you queries.
I presume you have seen this?
https://www.northernminer.com/news/site-visit-igc-advances-malmyzh-russias-far-east/1003781516/
The Malmyzh copper project looks like it is something quite special. A snip at $200m IMO.
TDT
I would be very interested if anyone has any details about the sale of IG Copper, as this could offer a relevant comparison.
ie
- what stage were they at
- what was their NPV
- what was their Market Cap.
I've looked in the web but found nothing, maybe someone has something still on their PC or in their mind.
best
M
https://www.drandrews.co.uk/blog/2018/03/28/erectile-dysfunction-gel/
Hi, maybe start with the pfs rns. Gives projection of npv and cash flows.
Does anyone have any decent research reports to give an indication on what this should / could potentially be worth?