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Garf
Very wise. It's difficult to know what's going on in RY world and whether what has been released into the public domain is what's actually happening. Erring on the side of caution at least contains the possibility, no matter how unlikely, of a pleasant and unexpected surprise.
TDT
TDT,
I was erring on the cautious side until RY provides further clarity. Probably safer that way, for me anyway, simply because some of the figures that RY has put forward appear to be related to the establishment of the reserves figure and not where the project is eventually going. For instance at the Q and A RY said that the 11.8m tpa figure was really a negotiation tactic with GKZ to maximise reserves. As a result we will not have to go back to in the future.
No doubt RY knows a good deal more than he has told us and quite possibly he is assisting potential partners.
Garf
Garf
The whole process is far more involved and time-consuming than many realise, I agree.
Shouldn't you be taking your figures from the Interims in the 30/09/2021 RNS? In the section titled "TEO Highlights" they state the following:-
"Potential mine life estimated to be 25 years, sustaining an 11.2 million tonne per year throughput."
"On 30 June 2021, the Company announced that RPM Global had completed an update to the JORC resource estimates including all drilling and trenching. Based on a 0.3% nickel equivalent cut-off grade ("COG"), the global JORC ore tonnage has increased by 19.2 million tonnes ("Mt") (12.4%) to 174.3 Mt, by 156,000 nickel tonnes (13.5%) to 1.31 Mt of nickel (averaging 0.75% nickel) and by 53,000 copper tonnes (16.6%) to 372,000 copper tonnes (averaging 0.21% copper). A 0.3% nickel cut-off grade was used to calculate the JORC Resource compared to previously reported resources at a 0.4% Nickel cut off-grade."
1.31m tonnes of nickel @ 73.5% = 963,000 tonnes x $23,950/tonne = $23B
0.372m tonnes of copper @ 52.3% = 195,000 tonnes x $9875 = $1.925B
I make it close to $25B.
I'm pretty sure they will have left a juicy morsel in the bottom of the pot for the buyer to discover as well.
TDT
TDT,
False dawn possibly.
I was recently reading an article called Mine Design Stages in Russia by two chaps at IMC Montan, Russia Office. All good stuff and worth a read in terms of the next stage and the legal requirements. The document also backs up what RY has been telling us. ie Comply with the process or it is a non-starter. Under the TEO section they say:
The cash flow model includes the estimation of revenues, capital and operating expenditures, taxes, depreciation, sustaining expenditures. The marketing studies are focused on the saleable products and market segments, including a detailed saleable product price forecast.The major project viability parameters (IRR, NPV, TV, payback period, etc.).Testing of the project sensitivity to variable parameters.
The draft TEO was submitted back in August so no doubt certain entities probably know what is within the doc. Hence, it is quite possible that they have been building a position, as you suggest, quietly for some months.
i have also plugged in the TEO quantities issued by RY back in late 2020. Based upon current spot prices revenue is up to $9.7b for the Nickel and circa $1b for the copper. Total circa $10.7b. I have excluded the bits and bobs for the gold etc. This is over a 15 year period. IF RY has extended the mine life and come up with a few other initiatives fig could be higher. Presumably if you were an entity with an interest you will have run your own numbers and have a fair idea as to what is possible.
Garf
None.....lots of bravado going on!
some gov ministers now saying we are near war ukraine russia.. If draconian sanctions introduced by America what is the likelihood russia reclaiming strategic assets ie Nickle amc. And what is likelihood of this being a Johnson diversion mistruth.
Agree that we've seen many false dawns.....but this time Teo is close, we appear to have someone accumulating and with nickel at over $11 per lb, that must make our asset eye wateringly valuable!!!......best I buy more tomorrow!!
Hi Lucando
The accumulating party hasn't declared but a new nominee account has appeared which suggests somebody is accumulating. The account first appeared in the December shareholder update when it was announced that 51,605,410 shares or 3.74% of the shares in issue had been acquired. It now stands, one month after first appearing, at 58,126,537 shares. The one thing that's not clear is whether this nominee account is one party or several. If it were one party a TR1 should have been issued which seems to imply that its more than one entity accumulating. It could be several separate accounts ultimately looking to act in concert.
The principal advantage for one party accumulating in this nominee account using several different names is by doing so up to the 3% threshold they can keep their identity private. Of course there's the distinct possibility that this is just another nominee and there's nothing untoward going on at all. I don't think that's the case though given share moves from all accounts over the last several months.
We've had plenty of false dawns here so don't be surprised if this is another.
TDT
No doubt the Russia/Ukraine/NATO noise will have us seeing red on Monday!
When does the accumulating party have to declare their position TDT?
.......about the unusual activity on Friday it seems to me that we have seen two separate and distinct things happening. Accumulation, it seems, has been going on for several months resulting in 4.2% of the company's shares ending up in a new Euroclear nominee account. That process has been slow and methodical to avoid spiking the share price. Friday was anything but slow and methodical. Friday was indicative of news leaking. The obvious piece of news to leak is the publication of the TEO.
An RNS sometime this coming week seems likely.
TDT
Upon reflection it wouldn't surprise me either if we didn't hear a thing.