The latest Investing Matters Podcast episode featuring Jeremy Skillington, CEO of Poolbeg Pharma has just been released. Listen here.
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Just put a limit order in to try to buy some more back at 1.5p ... hopefully tempt some mm to tighten their spread.
I think this is a partial re-run of March ... whole market sells off in panic then gold stocks rise rapidly.
Even with pull back in spot gold most miners are going to show an av selling price in Q3 around $1850, whereas this was around $1700 in Q2 ... that's $150 p.oz to the bottom line profit
I squeezed in at 1.70ish - let's see her rise!
The spread is tighter than this is showing ... it was really 1.70 / 1.90 at close ... still 10% but not quite as bad as 28.8%.
I bought back in at 1.88 what I'd sold at 2.50 a couple of weeks ago ... my punt is we'll be above 2p by cob tomorrow
Thanks chaps.
I see that one thing that hasn't changed is the spread...
It is my opinion that they hedged q2 sales, fixing at the spot price on the first day of that quarter.
Then they saw that there was a strong growth in the gold price, that removed incentive to maximise gold sales for Q2.
Apart from generating the minimum cash required to cover outgoings in Q2, it would be better to hold back and then wait for Q3 and go back to selling at the variable spot price.
Even if they still chose to hedge Q3 at the price on the first day of Q3, that would be at a price $187 per oz higher than the price they were getting for selling during Q2.
So better to get the mill in order in Q2 and stockpile a bit of ore and dore, ready to benefit from the likely trend in stong gold prices for the forseeable future.
The main difference between Q2 and Q1 was the ore mined which is a direct result of the new equipment. Some of the other equipment recently purchased should also start to address the grade and it is there that the real improvements in production should come in. Or at least that is the theory.
Q2 was frustrating from a point of view that sums up ALTN - ‘scheduled’ maintenance on the mill ensured that the greater ore mined was not reflected in ore milled and, hence, gold produced. Of course, we were not aware of this schedule in advance. Additionally revenue was flat because not all the gold was sold in the time frame. This does mean, however, that Q3 gets a head start.
ALTN remains a tempting investment because the current market cap. probably only reflects the value associated with current production given the gold price. The processing facilities suggest more is possible, the potential grade even more and the size of the asset deserves a lot more. And then there is Teren-Sai.
Thank you RB.
I managed to get in at about 0.6 last time but I can't imagine I'll be as lucky this time. Might as well start buying in. The AIX market was clearly optimistic about ALTN's ability to ramp up volume and the higher gold price makes it a very attractive punt.
Mr B - There is no real news ... main problem with Altyn BoD is that even with the additional financing and machinery they haven't been able to show appreciable growth in "volume" of gold mined or any forecast for future production. Market is probably struggling to understand why this is the case and so marking the stock down on the basis that no news is bad news.
If you believe they can mine 25-30k oz in 2021 then this is worth 3p ... if you believe any of he hype about 40k / 60k / 80k or even 100k oz annual production then you should load up.
I watched 3p turn to 0.5p from 2016 to 2018 but then doubled down last year to get my average to around 1p.
This is a gamblers stock : 2p could revert to 0.5p or rise just as easily to 5p ... so if you like twice the upside then gamble however much you're prepared to lose. "invest" 4 grand and you'll either have one or ten by X-mas.
I buggered off when we got new machinery, started ramping up production, Mr Market got excited and SP skyrocketed.
Any actual negative news to explain the sp drop back to sub-2p levels? Any news, really.
Mr B, what 'actual change' refer to?
financial, production, mine develpment,
Interim result due soon. filing in the news gap perhaps
On a serious note, has there been any actual change since we started buying new machinery?
Ah, thanks chaps, I knew you'd let me back in.
Mr Big
Giving you the chance to buy back in.... lol
Hi all.
Sold my ALTN shares a while a go when we started rising and have not been following it since - what's the story with sp dropping back down again?