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We're due a Q4 update any day now ... which I suspect is going to show a steady 8-9k oz production.
That will equate to 2022 revenue around $60m and profit above $20m.
That sort of consistency is what we've all been hoping for over the years.
It doesn't take a genius to figure that even on a p/e of 5 we should be around £80-100m market cap and that's without factoring in any increased production or continued rise in the gold price.
If gold breaks through $2k and stays there, or BoD project 40-60k oz for 2023 then we really should see a massive boost in share price on top of the 50% rise over the past 2-3mths ... I'm still targetting 250p before I top-slice
Haven't heard from Busterhogdog lately
Definitely the appointment of the auditor - with no auditor there is a risk of suspension and big corporate governance risks, now one has been appointed it removes a substantial risk.
Gold strength helps
Then there isn’t much free float so no surprise it moves quickly in either direction
I would like to know what is driving the increase.....any thoughts?
Perhaps the market has suddenly realised that ALTN is a diamond in the rough!
Certainly not driven by recent news from the company....unless this is a delayed reaction about the financing deal.
Nice to see though.
Thar she blows!
ALTN over the years has been a frustrating share to own. They have had many hurdles and made incremental progress. The management have also had ambitions that probably exceeded their capabilities.....favorite son syndrome!?
The lights are currently Green for Go. If they can deliver on their planned production increases then SP will follow higher even though it is in Kazakhstan (I hope). They have the money, they have the Green light for Go, they even have a new accountant....no more excuses, time to deliver.
With the appointment of the auditor this is the first time while I've been a holder that everything looks good with no current areas of concern - production is strong and has been very reliable, low cost funding is in place for the next stage of expansion, auditor now in place and even if I still don't like this advance payments to suppliers I doubt it will cause issues and externally gold price is strong and the outlook looks positive and Kazakhstan seems reasonably strong and is keeping Russia at arms length.
I'm sure there will always be some discount due to Kazakhstan and the ownership structure, buts even allowing for that its difficult to see why this will not re-rerate substantially in the near future. I don't see there being any dividends in financial year 2022 and probably not 2023 as this year most of the capex spend will happen, but 2024 there should be sufficient free cashflow to pay a decent amount.
I'm sure there is something just around the corner to bite me for this post, but this is now the most comfortable I have been holding.
If Polymetal in a heavily sanctioned high-risk political jurisdiction like Russia can find a new auditor after Deloitte resigned, you would think Altyn shouldn't have a problem. They should look up Polymetal's new auditor MHA MacIntyre Hudson, considering both miners work in Kazakhstan, there would be some large synergies for MHA MacIntyre Hudson.
I suspect they are urgently trying to find a replacement before they have to inform the market. But the news has leaked.
I wonder if this was linked to delay in securing the funding?!
You can find the resignation letter at companies house
https://find-and-update.company-information.service.gov.uk/company/05048549/filing-history
Again I don't like the fact that this has not been RNS'd
The AltynGold website shows BDO as one of their 'advisors & partners'. I tried to use the link to BDO site (read more) but was warned of a security threat, so didn't risk it.
Fun, fun, fun.
Cannot see any RNS that has BDO stepping down as Auditor.
When did the auditor resign? Was there an RNS.
I thought the issue was resolved and the auditor was 'sort of happy'!!....on the understanding that Altyn would improve their governance. Must have missed this!
Altyn is standard listed and I believe the only requirement is that they release audited financials within 6 months of year end, which would be June-23, so I'm not sure its anything that is imminent.
The question is can they get a replacement - BDO resigned due to the issue of advance payments and Altyn not being able to prove a lot of the information including whether there was a related party connection so which auditor will take it on with that issue?
Again though its just poor corporate governance, no information has been given to shareholders about the resignation so again any trust is eroded.
So right now, with no auditor, what is the likelihood of suspension?
50/50
20/80
90/10
???
Buster - the problem with the auditor has been solved.
The auditor quit.
BALD EAGLE The share price has never recovered from the revelation of these very large forward payments to the mining contractor.
The very fact the company had been warned, was clearly aware of the concerns of the auditor but has ignored the matter, they are still carrying on with the practice - poor form and clearly concerning.
I have been investing in the sector for many decades and have never ever come across a situation where a company hands over $5m/$6m/$7m+ to a third party in advance of work.
The value destruction the forward payments have created is totally self-inflicted, any 'normal' company would have changed policy instantly, assured the auditor, assured the market, assured shareholders, they continue unabated.
I continue to hold, albeit a smaller number of shares but am unsettled about the aforementioned practice, we know management has delivered on operational matters but this company would be valued 20%/$30% higher if they had that $7m+ in the bank as opposed to handing it to a unknown third party.
"I think you're a little unfair even joking abt a company yacht. If directors are guilty of anything it's long-term investment. The haven't diluted stock and take amongst the lowest wages in the lse. They've build up this company successfully and I think they shld be given a break."
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Researchcentre, as you correctly spotted, it was a joke about the yacht. I sometimes joke about gold plated toilets in the executive washroom.
I would agree that the management should get credit for taking mining underground and increasing production. But I reserve the right to criticise because they have made some very odd decisions. But progress is being made. They don't have any more excuses now and the ultimate mark of success will be gold poured. Good luck to all shareholders.
The market hasn't spotted the potential here....that's what I keep telling myself!!
I think your a joke giving a break to what rubbish updates and more lies and false dawns ?
baldie is right i would not trust these clowns as far as I could throw them you included !
I think you're a little unfair even joking abt a company yacht. If directors are guilty of anything it's long-term investment. The haven't diluted stock and take amongst the lowest wages in the lse. They've build up this company successfully and I think they shld be given a break.
"..... but if it doesn't happen maybe the family will be happy to approve a 20p p.a dividend instead !"
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That would be nice. But we have heard the 'dividend' rhetoric before....and there is always something to spend the cash on e.g. another processing plant & mine infrastructure at Teren-sai....an even bigger company yacht!!
I guess with so much of the company held by Assaubayev family there is minimal chance of a decent sized fund manager buying in, because they won't sell below about 250p minimum ... which is my estimate of their average holding cost.
However I also feel the 1mtpa run rate gets us to something like a 60k oz p.a producer and at current prices / costs I really would expect that to equate to a market cap somewhere north of £100m
... a re-rating has been a long time coming, but if it doesn't happen maybe the family will be happy to approve a 20p p.a dividend instead !
In theory this should remove one of the shackles that has been holding back ALTN for many years.
Spike - agree, massive news and as you say great terms on interest rates which vary 3-7%. For me it's a very clear RNS and with the Assaubayev family owning 65.5% their interests should align with all other shareholders in terms of both increasing shareholder value of company in both capital and dividends as CEO Aidar Assaubayev summarised at end of RNS:
“Securing the development funding at attractive terms, indicates our partners’ confidence in the prospects of AltynGold. We are now in a position to implement the expansion plan towards 1mtpa production within two years in line with our strategic growth plan. Achieving this milestone will significantly increase shareholders value and set the stage for a sustainable dividend policy.”
At 1mtpa run rate, 82% gold recovery and 2g/t, I calculate gold production increase to 53k oz p.a. However a 2.5g/t would provide 66k oz p.a. and 3g/t 79k oz p.a.
Very significant news, I’ve been critical recently but this is hugely significant.
1. Removes any risk of a default on the upcoming note maturity.
2. Gives a tick for corporate governance from an independent source
3. Favourable financing rates - this is proper development finance not speculative notes.
4. Gives a clear path to the next increase in production up to around 60000 Oz per year.
5. Given the prepayments they have made, their free cashflow generated in the next 2 years should almost fully cover the development anyway - it allows for acceleration and not just cash in, cash out development, but net debt in 2 years time should be reasonably minimal.
Big step forward
Baldie you talk gibberish your bullish then bearish , get the feeling your becoming a bear !