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More progress, great to see a decent step up in the quantity of ore milled, exit rate of 32000oz per year and given the comments on further improvement in grade expected, 35,000oz for 2022 should be the minimum target - the question now is whether they can get the finance required to move beyond that amount.
I'm hoping the Q4 update might happen this week ... Q3 was reported on 12th Oct !
Every reason to hope that FY results will be revenue in $45-48m and Net profit around $4m
We really should be re-rating to around 250p
There could be a production update in a few weeks....unless delayed by the recent troubles in Kazakhstan.
Promising report on yahoo finance
Inflation continuing to kick on and gold is strengthening despite yields also strengthening.
The situation in Kazakhstan also appears to be settling - the internet has been opened back up and the crackdown appears to be sufficiently strong to quell unrest.
I’m reviewing this investment now - political risk has heightened but I’m also somewhat uncomfortable with investing in Kazakhstan now. I obviously knew it was a dictatorship and not a fully open society but it did seem to be relatively benovelent and focusing on development. The brutal crackdown is making me reassess.
"I think this will be an absolute gold mine :-)"
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It is a gold producing mine but 'apparently' not the right sort. The SP doldrums preceded the recent unrest in Kazakhstan. Hopefully the people associated with the mines are safe.
I think years of disappointing results haven't helped leaving many long term investors /watchers jaded and expecting the worse. And even before the current issues in Kazakhstan I think the region was unloved with a penalty to the share price. With that said I agree the fundamentals of the business look incredibly good and at some stage I remain hopeful that this will be recognized by the market. I remain horribly over exposed to this stock but have no intention of selling as long term I think this will be an absolute gold mine :-)
Been watching on the side-lines waiting and watching.
Looking at the fundamentals of the company it is crazy undervalued. what do people see as the reason for this? Must be something.
It is almost to good to be true at this price.
Slightest mention of Altyn, in russian.
https://qmonitor.kz/news/3188
What s going on low volume no trades today ? Not good at all .
Hopefully the recent PR will prove beneficial to the fund raising process.
Personally I would prefer Altyn to fund the extra investment from profits but I guess that isn't feasible. SP seems to be in the doldrums awaiting news.
The bond status is still pending.
https://rusbonds.ru/bonds/185385/
I don't reckon PR like that is helpful. What happened about the Russian bond?
29-11-2021 Interview.
https://m.marketscreener.com/quote/stock/ALTYNGOLD-PLC-4004716/news/INTERVIEW-Kazakh-gold-miner-AltynGold-on-a-roll-37155181/
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They have subsidiaries for Seki, TS, The mill and the new finance raising company.
In order to accelerate the growth in production they need to invest in more equipment, which needs capital, which needs PR to answer the questions that new investors have.
I struggled to recognise the ALtyngold I know in the article. I didn't know they had many 'subsidiaries'....definitely PR gumph!
Hopefully they are concentrating on getting high grade ore out the ground and processing it rather than waste time on such nonsense.
24-11-2021
https://neweconomy.site/5-questions-on-gold-mining-and-esg/
"If so I hope that ALTN don't give away such a generous share option incentive again to promote bond sales."
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It was very generous...Putin's kickback I suppose!!
The russian bond market warms up a bit with the issue on 12-11-2021 of 5 year bonds for "Freedom Finance" raising them $34m. The coupon rate benchmark is set at 5.5% per annum.
Objectives of the issue - Maintenance of liquidity and replenishment of working capital; expansion of the product line; general corporate goals; development of the market-making direction.
As FF organized the last 3 year bond for Altyn, could some of this $34m end up underwriting ALTNs upcoming bond issue?
If so I hope that ALTN don't give away such a generous share option incentive again to promote bond sales.
".... the company just announces 8k oz production in Q4"
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It seems highly likely that the Q4 gold production will be nearer to 8K than the 9K5 required to reach the 30K yearly forecast....which funnily enough was the figure - albeit for the next 3 years - that the 'independent research' came up with (28K wasn't it?)....perhaps they knew something after all.
To get to 9,500 oz they would have to process at least 170,000 tonnes of good grade ore (unless the grade increased dramatically). There seems to be some unexplained limitation to the processing system and 'perhaps' 140,000 tonnes is the current upper limit....again pointing to 8K (or slightly less) in Q4.
News about the additional financing - whether that is the Russian bond (!!) - or a n other source, is 'probably' needed to give the SP a boost.
Nameplate capacity of current plant of 850ktpa is becoming a joke.....I shall send them a nice brass plaque with 500ktpa written on it for Chrimbo.
""..Faced with this partial lockdown between 30 October and 9 November, many Russians have decided to go on holiday. ...""
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So London will be packed with Russians, having pots of tea and dousing each other with perfume....Moscow-on-Thames.
Perhaps they should delay it a few weeks.
Those not ill or trudging around empty supermarkets or in traffic queues to the airport, might still enjoy bidding for Altyn's bond sale.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-59076152
"..Shops, restaurants and schools have shut in Moscow in a partial lockdown, as Russia battles record Covid deaths and infections.
Only essential shops like supermarkets and pharmacies are allowed to open in the capital, while food outlets are only providing takeaways.
Authorities have also given workers across Russia nine days off from Saturday in a bid to curb infections. .."
"..Faced with this partial lockdown between 30 October and 9 November, many Russians have decided to go on holiday. ..."
The bond status is still "planned", the last news was that placing/bookbuilding would start in October.
Normally you would expect the PR machine to be turned up to max. including RNSs advertising each step in the bond issue timetable. But this is Altyn, so I would not be surprised if day one of the bond placing starts without any RNS.
Although the Moscow bond market is open, some parts of the country have recently shutdown to slow the spread of the virus. Russia have a low level of vaccination and are now suffering a renewed rise in their reported death rates.
https://graphics.reuters.com/world-coronavirus-tracker-and-maps/countries-and-territories/russia/
If the Russian bond placing is going to happen in October then an RNS is due this week, surely! Or have I missed something?
Back in April I suggested this was a bit of a gambler's stock and I rated the probability of several scenarios to give a fair value of 0.09 x 0p + 0.25 x 150p + 0.33 x £3 + 0.33 x £5 = 275p. These past few quarters have been consistent and quiet which suits me find. Our 2021 revenue will probably be around $48m from 28k oz production so I think the chances of us going bust have almost disappeared and chances of growth towards that 100k oz production aspiration which they had a few years ago is becoming more likely but still distant. So my revised fair value is now 0.33 x 150p + 0.33 x £2.50 + 0.33 x £4.50 = 283p ... not much different, but I feel much more confident that we will get our re-rating to atleast £2.50 even if gold sticks around $1750 and the company just announces 8k oz production in Q4 .... I'm staying overweight !