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Hello All,
good to read all the posts today - and a great find from you Fisken regarding the FED CFO position.
I'd have to agree with you Agricore with regards P/S. I think 60p is realistic and achievable.
My B/e is 36p so 60p would be good result for me personally. And I freely admit I've said this before but Federated is the only reason I've stayed invested (and optimistic) here. I think there's excellent scope for robust recurring revenues.
Good luck all, and yes - hopefully the patient investor will be rewarded.
Hi Pablo, I think 10-20x price-to-sales is way above what's achievable. But if we take a more realistic 2x P/S ratio then the read across uplift in value is 215% ($200m/$92.7m) of the last funding round and the read across value for us Allied Minds shareholders is 28p x 2.15 = 60p per share.
I'd be more than happy with that, and there's similar prospects for uplifts on their other holdings too. I mentioned earlier on today the 1.35p per share buybacks..... but the bigger implication is that the Board have told us that they've assessed the cash requirements of their portfolio and are happy that $3m is surplus - i.e. the portfolio can self fund (or I suppose we are happy to dilute our percentage in future funding rounds). I take this to mean that they have a trajectory and I find that very encouraging.
The patient investor will hopefully be rewarded.
If they hit the 100m target revenue over the next year then it floats and 10-20x revenue. That makes it a billion dollar company and based on fed alone valuation over 6x current sp.
That’s a great spot. Federated Wireless’ IPO should comfortably cover the current share price and provide a 40% upside to the current price
orbital sidekick has a strong proposition and very very timely in a world with both wildfires and emissions concern. One can imagine us governmental support for the technology.
Today’s buy back is equivalent of about 1.35p per share and is 20% of the last reported cash balance
Interesting that Fed Wireless are looking for a CFO with experience of preparing company for IPO:
https://federatedwireless.com/careers-detail/?gh_jid=5325092002
Glad I’m on the sidelines for now, surely the share buyback is too little too late, even for this shower of Bored Members, excuse the pun. Hope to rejoin if price allows, sorry for the rest of you who stuck with the storyline, the truth is that Bad Management will ultimately be the difference between failure and success and this lot will need years of hard work to achieve bad management status.
Based on the capital markets day they are well aware of the frustrations of investors. To their advantage I can see how several of the portfolio will flourish and succeed. Once some positive progress has been achieved, then this will sharply rerate.
If we are no further forward in 12 months I intend to vote against their re-election - as will many others
Ignore last message. Was for HUR
I am assuming there will be a GM. When held CA will all need u to vote with him. This is important . We need action and glad he is on our side. Too many tines boards have robbed private investors and got away with it. Time for change
No longer a shareholder but like most, I lost on this one.
Peter,
The ALM BOD is the worst I've ever come across.
So I'd like to think they'll get the boot and a good slapping to go with it
But given the tone of the rebuke they gave I cant even guess what might happen
GL
Any thoughts on what happens next with Mr Rein and Mr Bruce?
I see the motion to elect them passed so I suppose legally they can just continue on.
Can Mr Rein continue on as Chairman given such a marginal re-election?
Most interesting AGM from any company I've seen in ages
Very big institutional revolt against lots of the motions
Good to see at least one of the big boys is an unhappy as us small timers
Good luck all
Good to see you AP
Here's my take for what its worth.
Invesco were selling up until recently and combined with low investor sentiment its been dragged down to where we are.
The BOD are quite frankly a farce and have woefully underperformed.
But Federated Wireless, Bridgecomm, Orbital Sidekick and now OcuTerra represent very good value i feel.
The capital markets day was very positive and FED in particular will be profit making soon.
I'm in relatively low with a B/E of 36p and I've been holding for about 18 months now. But i think I'll be holding for another year at least until we see some results.
Happy to hear any thoughts of course
Agm next week so we will know more re senior staff. Go to Crystal Amber webpage and they will give u an update of what is happening.
I noticed this was Tipped in IC Alpha report at 38p; with a target price of 55p... It is now 23p; AGM is next week. This must be trading at around 70% below NAV now...
What are peoples views on the work needing to be done to make this profitable; new chairman on the board? is he likely to step down?
Can anyone give a rundown of what’s happening here? - I looked at IC alpha report who had a target of 55p and to buy at 38p - that was July 2020. Since then looks like some colourful accounting and price has dived into 20s - is recovery possible or is this a difficult one to call?
I think you're right Dungiven123 - I though it was post-money valuation.
This means our equity stake is worth $6.7014m fully-diluted, which is nearly 10% of our current market cap.
Is the value of $16m not pre the funding raising? If that is case, value today with new cash raised must be $30.6m. Maybe I am reading it wrongly. Let me know.
Taking the view that finance being provided as clininical trials must b going well.
yes a very good update regarding the value of Ocu
Investor sentiment is pretty low given how shambolic the BOD have been
I think we'll only release value here once FED, Bridgecomm and co start generating revenues, which according to the capital markets day will be in the next 12 months
Got a B/E of 36p with ALM so no choice but to sit and wait for this to come good (fingers crossed)
Great news hopefully the broker can do it’s job and promote it properly and Crystal Amber can sort the board out - there maybe light at the end of this tunnel - trying to keep the faith x
The valuation for OcuTerra Therapeutic is higher at $16m - ALM have a fully-diluted ownership of 21.9% valuing equity at $3.504m, which is positive as nothing priced in for this.
I just can't understand why every single update coming out of the company is so downbeat though.
This portfolio company has raised $14.6m after 3 years of seeking external equity finance and ALM management decide to make it look negative FFS.
If it wasn't for Crystal Amber in our corner, I would be out a long time ago as there's massive disconnect between management and shareholder expectations.
Rns today is great news. Previously valued at zero, now circa us 30m. We have 21.9% ownership .
Capital Markets Day - Live Recording
https://vimeopro.com/instinctifpartners/allied-minds-capital-markets-day
Capital Markets Day - Federated Wireless
http://www.alliedminds.com/assets/Federated-Wireless-ALM-CMD-14-April-2021.pdf
Capital Markets Day - Orbital Sidekick
http://www.alliedminds.com/assets/Orbital-Sidekick-ALM-CMD-14-April-2021.pdf
Capital Markets Day - BridgeComm
http://www.alliedminds.com/assets/BridgeComm-ALM-CMD-14-April-2021.pdf
Allied Minds plc ("Allied Minds")
During the quarter, following the resignation of its Chief Executive, Allied Minds continued its practice of poor communications and the unacceptable lack of provision of financial information. This included a botched Capital Markets Day, to which invitations were only sent to analysts and not to investors. The Fund is aware of two (paid for) analysts who cover Allied Minds. Subsequently, investors were made aware of the Capital Markets Day, with only a few days' notice. The company's broker subsequently apologised to the Fund for this error.
During the Capital Markets Day, important financial information was provided. The Chief Executive of Federated Wireless (which represents 26p of Allied Minds' house broker's estimated net asset value of 46p), reported actual Q1 revenues for 2021 and a financial forecast for the full year.
Revenue forecasts were also provided by other portfolio companies. The Fund believes that this information should be provided to all market participants and not just to those that were able to access the Capital Markets Day. More than a week ago, the Fund requested that Allied Minds release this information without delay to all market participants. This afternoon, this information has finally been made available.
Separately, earlier this month, paid-for research from Edison for Allied Minds was withdrawn, after the Fund highlighted an error with the percentage holding in a portfolio company. Earlier in the year, Edison apologised for a previous error: for several months, estimated net asset value had been materially overstated, as a result of not deducting the 12.6p special dividend paid to shareholders in February 2020.
The Fund believes that responsibility lies with the Chairman of Allied Minds. In light of this, the Fund has written to Harry Rein to ask him not to seek re-election at next month's Annual General Meeting. If he decides to seek re-election, the Fund (an owner of more than 18%, of the issued share capital) will vote against his re-election and write to other shareholders to explain its reasoning. The Fund believes that Mark Lerdal, a non-executive director of Allied Minds, should replace Harry Rein as Chairman. Following his appointment as Executive Chairman of Leaf Clean Energy ("Leaf") in 2014 with support from the Fund, Mark Lerdal achieved an excellent outcome for all shareholders in the company. Like Allied Minds, Leaf was a London listed, US based closed end investment fund trading at a 50% discount to net asset value.
Over the period, Allied Minds' shares fell by 31%.
Released today on their webpage. They are not happy and reading the update, I can see a new chairman being appointed. Really shocked by what has being going on at head office, broker reports and capital market day. You could not make it up. Glad CA is all over this.