The latest Investing Matters Podcast episode featuring Jeremy Skillington, CEO of Poolbeg Pharma has just been released. Listen here.
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Thank you gentleman for an interesting read started by Giles. BOAGF is the revenue stream as we speak but those SMAs are the ones needed to be set up. Corvid, nasty as it is, has proved a nuisance to ALGW on these fronts.
Reassuurg comment from Hraham about the placing idea.
"With regards to placing a they are fully funded and know they have been out right offered funds in the form of a placing which Gobind out right refused. Extremely refreshing to know he absolutely has the interest of shareholders and growing the business at heart"
Nice to see that SBH has become a modest investor in the company. May he can engage his followers to do the same. That would help the drive forward to break 2p and move yet further upwards.
I hope a Tr1 is announced at 7am ...that also would be nice.
Cheers guys.
Thank's guy's, very informative post's.
@giles thanks for clarifying your thinking
makes more sense now you assign 500k for separate managed accounts. I hope the size of the first one is a big enough ticket to spread confidence to other prospects and importantly demonstrate Alpha can be trusted with say 75-100+ million AUM deals and incrementally build from there. Just like at the weekend fuel the rocket on the launchpad, strap in, light the fuse and off we go.
Out of interest and on a completely different note anyone got any long spread bets in play? Just curious as I looked a few times over the last 6 months but IG were closing only which implies someone/people are balls deep and retiring their families when this blasts off. Good luck.
I'm in, but not fully in any more.
@Giles asks "SecretBP: Are you guys in or out of ALGW atm? SecretBP are you still hunkered down in the highlands?"
I have retaken a modest position, and I am still in the Highlands, well away from the plague and efficiently serviced by Tesco Don't tell wee Nippy!
@O&W: I know that you've not been as regular on here as in the past so maybe you missed the 'infamous' post at the end of April in which a few choice tidbits were leaked when they obviously shouldn't have been. The post was pulled in short order the poster banned and probably deleted from GS's contacts list. Anyway by all accounts DS's provisional policy acquisition was £35mn at that date, hopefully more by now and at least 1 UHNW individual was on the verge of signing a SMA and these SMAs are now expected to be in the region of $75-150mn each.
@O&W and SecretBP: Are you guys in or out of ALGW atm? SecretBP are you still hunkered down in the highlands?
Echo sentiments shared by Giles. With regards to placing a they are fully funded and know they have been out right offered funds in the form of a placing which Gobind out right refused. Extremely refreshing to know he absolutely has the interest of shareholders and growing the business at heart. Much unlike many other small cap BODs who would jump at the chance of any additional cash if not but to feather their own nests.
In addition to this I’d add previous raised cash was at the Bid if I’m not mistaken, so again not at any real detriment to existing shareholders.
I genuinely feel very encouraged at how things are being run, and again as evidenced by Gobind grip on the purse strings. He is firmly focused on increasing AUM.
As mentioned by Giles we are merely at the starting blocks here’s so it’s absolutely reasonable to assign a higher P/E on projected growth. Signing up a family office investing $25M in separate managed account would for me well and truly get us off the starting blocks.
Again it’s my expectation that when one signs up be it family office or the RCF signed off, we’ll then see a steady flow of other sign ups.
Just waiting on that first domino to fall!
£600k in 2020 from BOAGF is a stretch. At 0.75% basic fee that would mean aum of £80mn ($100mn) for the whole year. But as we are nearly half way through already, and ALGW had ZERO income in FY 2019 from BOAGF, they need to gather close to $200mn of assets from now onwards, to generate that level of basic income. OK I didn't count any PF, but you get my gist. Without a marketing plan in place, ready to hit the ground running as the US comes out of lockdown (and hopefully not into a Summer of racial madness), you are setting yourself up for disappointment. At the very least, you need to answer the question, how much has BOAGF gathered thus far in 2020, and if a paltry sum, why will things speed up at a meteoric pace? The same goes for any Hybrid Bond Segregated Accounts.
@Secretblueprint: My bad, I meant Separate Managed Accounts.
This from the April update:
Separate Managed Accounts - The Company was approached and has entered into discussions with sponsors of proprietary funds to manage the longevity assets within those funds or what we call separate managed accounts. The Company continues to receive and have discussions with parties that wish to allocate funding, usually at a minimum of $25m, to invest in SLS, and to appoint the Company to act as the advisor or sub-advisor for a fee. During 2019 the Company had several of these opportunities present themselves. To avoid a dilution of its resources, the Company focused on discussions that were with parties pre-vetted by, or already known to, the Directors. These opportunities had reached a stage where early 2020 was proving to be the inflection point for the discussions, particularly as the equity markets were viewed as being "toppy", with the investors wishing to diversify into non-correlated assets. Whilst market turmoil has caused liquidity issues for these investors (who would be likely to want to allocate funds currently invested in equities into SLS assets) but has not diminished their desire to diversify into SLS. The Company is in contact with these parties who recognise the executives and the Company as a valuable resource for their long-term objectives.
Giles
At the corporate update in April, the company reported there was no institutional appetite for the "hybrid product" so they are not marketing it anymore. As far as I can make out, the only investment service they have reported to the SEC is BOAGF , so that is the only one they can be marketing in USA surely? Sure, BOAGF can offer bundled SLS policies ( the equity portion) or zero coupon bonds (the debt portion) but there is no "hybrid product" anymore, so one cannot assign an additional income forecast to it, beyond BOAGF.
Any view on that?
At the AGM he told me that ALGW had enough cash for this year, he also wrote it publicly somewhere. I intend to hold him to that.
Thanks Giles, much appreciated. I can see where you can your numbers now.
Was the omission of any placing comments intentional? I’d like to know your thoughts on this.
I’m going to email Gobind myself this evening to open up a dialogue - but have you had any conversations with him recently? Curious about the sentiment with the team currently and where they see the next move.
Again, really appreciate your input and knowledge on LSE.
@Serge1: I’m surprised you couldn’t find me on fb. When I type gilesfitzh into the search bar it only gives me as the result. If you need my full surname look at one of the TR-1s from 26/2, 17/3 or 25/3.
@ Serge1and Rambo23: If income for 2020 is £600k from BOAGF and say £500k from 2 hybrid accounts, using a P/E of 15, not too exaggerated I would think, that would give a MCap of £16.5mn which on 205mn shares is an sp of 8p. For 2021 we could reasonably expect £1.8mn from BOAGF and £1.5mn from 6 hybrid accounts, using P/E of 15 that’s a MCap of £49.5mn and an sp of 24p.
However for the next few years ALGW’s share price is going to be based on future expectations rather than year on year earnings so, IMO, 20p is by no means out of reach this year.
That is very true. Best to leave the slippers stateside and head to the meetings with a proper pen and contracts in hand to get the deals over the line. No coughing allowed then!!
Couple of flights business class and that’s all gone. Plus, Gobin needs a new pair of Louis Vutton’s I’m sure.
1,466,667 shares in total @1.5p = £22k so yes not a great deal
Rambo - correct me if I’m wrong but I believe the total value of the BOD’s sharing was around £45k? Not a great deal.
Hi Serge, good questions and I had similar thoughts so thanks for sharing. One reason I thought the BOD bought the shares like they did via a subscription was because I believe the money goes straight into the bank account (happy to be corrected) therefore increasing cashflow (useful right now) at the expense of minor dilution. If a placing were ever needed but you were expecting deals to be signed soon surely they would wait and agree at a much higher price if it was even needed or better still sign a deal and get some debt facility in place to avoid a placing. Downside is if you can't get the deals over the line and raise higher. Interested as you are to see Giles/ anyone else's view on these points. Personally I'm not worried about a placing right now but worth a discussion to see other peoples thoughts. I'm long and haven't been trading this as I believe there is lots of potential so will continue to buy any dips. DYOR
Hi Giles,
I can't find you on Facebook so just thought I'd ask here.
You mentioned in your last post that you feel 20p by the end of year is not out of sights - we currently sit at £3.6m mcap, so that would make it around £72m - with potential income of around £600k if the $100m sign off happens, just wondering on your thought process there?
I'm just curious on your placing thoughts? End of Feb results show we have £275k in cash, I am concerned of what this will have depleted to now. Although I understand costs are incredibly low with no flying. Have you spoken to GS about the possibility of a placing?
Great to buyers at close to 2p - although recent events do leave more questions than answers, which do make me feel uneasy.
Penny for your thoughts, G.
Struggling to find you..
I'm on fb
Giles,
I have a few questions I’d like to put to you. How can I get them to you privately?
agreed looks primed for a good afternoon
People, who obviously don't visit here, have sold nearly 1 mn shares today when it's plain to see that the sp is only going UP. More fool them.