London South East prides itself on its community spirit, and in order to keep the chat section problem free, we ask all members to follow these simple rules. In these rules, we refer to ourselves as "we", "us", "our". The user of the website is referred to as "you" and "your".
By posting on our share chat boards you are agreeing to the following:
The IP address of all posts is recorded to aid in enforcing these conditions. As a user you agree to any information you have entered being stored in a database. You agree that we have the right to remove, edit, move or close any topic or board at any time should we see fit. You agree that we have the right to remove any post without notice. You agree that we have the right to suspend your account without notice.
Please note some users may not behave properly and may post content that is misleading, untrue or offensive.
It is not possible for us to fully monitor all content all of the time but where we have actually received notice of any content that is potentially misleading, untrue, offensive, unlawful, infringes third party rights or is potentially in breach of these terms and conditions, then we will review such content, decide whether to remove it from this website and act accordingly.
Premium Members are members that have a premium subscription with London South East and have access to Premium Chat. You can subscribe here.
London South East does not endorse such members, and posts should not be construed as advice and represent the opinions of the authors, not those of London South East Ltd, or its affiliates.
The Stronger Pound does not seem to have had too much effect.
JP Morgan Broker Rec. of �25 issued mid March. Looking back at their previous recs. they have called it right almost all the time. �25 will do me in a years time!
...and now, nicely above. This Board's gone awful quiet recently!!
Moving back towards the �20 level......
....this is an easy one folks. Cracking figures followed by a ludicrous share price fall = very strong buy. On less than 13x next years' earnings now. This reminds me of the fall from �!2 to �8 (which is when I bought back in). Buy now while stocks last - I am!!
i don't get the rationale behind the selling after the price has dropped by over �1. Sure the finance director has left this is nothing new and besides the results were pretty good.
Apart from the mention of fx headwinds cannot see anything to justify the drop, but then again this is AHT which always behaves oddly!.
Do think as you dubious, that the news about Suzanne Wood is also contributing negatively.......plus a possible contrived drop before the yanks open and hopefully pile in (?), will see.
Excellent results followed by the usual fall in the S.P. Not helped I suppose by the resignation of the finance director and the fact that a sale trade for just under �10 million went through after hours last night.
�20 by Christmas?
This site seems to have gone haywire.
It was interesting to read a response from Geoff Drabble to a letter to and posted by a shareholder over on advfn., concerning the merits of a share buyback.
Also to know that he keeps an eye on our thoughts on these share chat pages!
If you like aht you might want to have a look at ferg (ex wos), plumbing and central heating.
T/o US 63%, Can 6%, UK 15%, RoW 3% (=87%, the Moon ???). If Brexit goes pear shaped maybe a refuge.
Don't hold any yet, but intend to get into aht and ferg.
yep - the brokers are very clearly lagging NOT leading indicators of a stock price. Definitely worth ignoring share price targets, although some of the commentary about the fundamental state of a company's business can be useful.
3rd January 2018 12:30 | Ashtead Group PLC
Credit Suisse today upgrades its investment rating on Ashtead Group PLC (LON:AHT) to outperform (from neutral) and raised its price target to 2240p (from 1650p).
TBH these brokers are jokers! CS now suddenly rate this at over 35% higher than before and have become positive about it. I could have told them that earlier.
My only concern is that the last buyback they stated “up to £200m in 2016/17” (they only bought c £48m), this time it’s “at least £500m.....”. My guess is though that it will be just £500m which spread over 18 months is the equivalent of £333m pa, doesn’t sound as bad! (gulp). They will not get anywhere near a billion, that’s just PR IMO to keep the US investors/market happy. They would have to increase net debt to fund £1bn and no way is a buyback going to be funded by debt, that would be madness IMO, thus the billion is smoke and mirrors.......they only bought back 25% of the last buyback programme so even the £500m may not come to fruition, no doubt in time they will announce a significant acquisition and then “the previously announced buyback programme has now been reduced accordingly”.
As for the director sells, well why not, how many on this board either put a short on or sold around results? (I did neither by the way except had a cheeky top up this morning). Also, think the three that sold tend to always sell on the same day (they did in June as well) so although timing not great for pi’s they do seem to try and manage a single hit to the sp.
There was also a broker downgrade yesterday (Citi) from Buy to neutral which didn’t help.
Looks as though a lot have, but that doesn't bother me as much as the company planning a £billion buyback instead of paying off some of the debt.
I agree that directors have to be allowed to sell sometime but 3 directors selling on the same day, more than £22m mmm. some people's families will get pretty impressive Christmas presents this year. But lets not forget that apart from that ( i know its a big 'that') the recent results were great and nothings changed.
I take absolutely no regard to broker ratings, they are biased, self opinionated, some might say imbalanced in favour of a few pre informed clients and in time prove of little or no value.
This is a great world wide organise business which has had a great year and I can see nothing that should reverse that trend, i would not of course be shocked to see a slow down in its share price and would not be at all surprised to see a substantial if not equal rise in the near future.
All opinion i know, but as we are not privy to the financial underworld thats all I have.
Yes, but that suggests we should all be doing the same then!!!
If the directors want to take profits surely now is the best time ,when there is a positive outlook for the company rather than a negative.
...this morning. Of course it's understandable that they want to take some of their wealth out, but Drabble has taken £20mn out!! - not a great signal to the market is it? All the gains of yesterday lost - disappointing TBH.
<b>Records and upgrades follow Ashtead's results
By Graeme Evans | Tue, 12th December 2017 - 13:05</b>
As much as Ashtead (AHT) boss Geoff Drabble tries to downplay the "Trump card", there's no denying that the US president has been a boon for shares in the equipment rental company. They rose as much as 5% Tuesday to a fresh record high and some believe they could go further still.
Up more than 70% since Donald Trump's election to the White House, the FTSE 100 (UKX) stock was given fresh impetus today after Drabble forecast better-than-expected annual results and made a surprise pledge of up to £1 billion in share buy-backs over the next 18 months.
Trading momentum remains strong, particularly in the United States where Ashtead generates nearly 90% of trade through its Sunbelt division. Rental-only revenue growth for Sunbelt was 18% in the quarter to October 31 as group revenue lifted 22% to £945 million and profits rose 24% to £298 million.
Ashtead's role in clean-up efforts following hurricanes Harvey, Irma and Maria helped the performance, but Drabble is keen to stress that the factors behind the US growth story are as much structural as they are cyclical or due to one-offs.
Recent excitement in the City about Ashtead stems from Trump's US tax reforms, which will mean a lower group tax rate of 23-25% as well as a one-off, non-cash tax credit of about £400 million relating to deferred tax liabilities.
While Ashtead cautioned that the full benefit may not be fully realised until 2019/20, analysts at Investec Securities have said that a 23% effective tax rate could increase its estimates of full-year 2019 earnings per share (EPS) by 17%.
On Trump's infrastructure spending plans, Drabble said earlier this year that this was little more than a long-term advantage for Ashtead.
Ashtead has a five-year plan to grow its North American business and is only 18 months into the journey. Sunbelt is now the second-largest US rental equipment business, with almost 650 outlets. In 2014, Sunbelt entered the Canadian market where it is gradually building a presence and network of stores.
In the UK, Ashtead's A-Plant business continues to perform well and delivered rental only revenues of £182 million in the quarter to October 31, up 20% on the prior year.
With shares up 28% since the US hurricanes hit, UBS analysts said the strong quarterly performance and US tax cut were mostly factored into the share price, although they said that today's significant share buy-back was unexpected.
Barclays moved its target price to 2,263p from 1,867p following today's update, even though Ashtead has been the strongest performer in the UK support services sector by some distance over the past three months.
Oops forgot the link!
Excellent results........only down side is the buyback rather than increased / special dividend.
Posted earlier that I thought year end 130p-140p but that was without a reduction in tax from c 34% to 23%, which, according to the following article will increase eps by 17%, so make that 152p to 164p, PE16 gives mid of say £25.......so spot on Matt!
Watch the broker upgrades start coming through now........always behind the curve.
Good luck all.
ps The normal bit of selling but at least it stayed blue today.
pre-tax of 509m expected, £536m achieved. Consensus EPS was at £1.20 this year, but feels like £1.40 will become the target after these number. I think 18x rating by end of the financial year in April would be fair, giving price target of £25. Same target I had before but brought forward a few months!!!
Oops, missed the first line of the paragraph:
The equipment rental company will report its half year results on Tuesday......
Couldn’t resist a ramp!
“Tuesday, with analysts expecting pre-tax profits to be around £509m, 19.5pc higher than at the same point last year.
Consensus estimates for revenues suggest they will be 27.8pc up on the same six month period in 2016, at almost £1.85 billion.”
As suspected, an “exceed” market expectations looks to be on the cards.........hope so anyway!.
Main points (from the balance)
1 Business Taxes
Both plans lower the maximum corporate tax rate from 35 percent to 20 percent. The Senate plan delays the change until 2019 to save $100 billion in revenue loss. The United States has one of the highest corporate tax rates in the world. But most corporations don't pay more than 15 percent. They can afford tax attorneys who help them avoid paying more.
Both plans lower the maximum small business tax rate to 25 percent.
2, Plans allow businesses to deduct the cost of depreciable assets in one year instead of amortizing them over several years. It does not apply to structures. The deduction starts phasing out after five years. The write-off would encourage more investment.