Gordon Stein, CFO of CleanTech Lithium, explains why CTL acquired the 23 Laguna Verde licenses. Watch the video here.
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BumbleB, appreciate what you're saying, first order news would be confidence boosting to me, it'd validate what AFC have said and what we have. Will also do wonders for the pi's and sp. Pretty confident in what we have here, but would help underpin and stop slides unwarranted slides like yesterday. Which in all honesty spiralled out of just a handful of largish sells.
I accept that there could be and are many reasons why potential customers are waiting to sign on the bottom line, but I am certain that once tomorrows election is out of the way (hopefully not a hung parliament) many businesses will release some of the cash that they have been reluctant to spend.
I will not mention who I hope wins tomorrow, as I do not wish to turn the thread into a political thread, but it is uncertainty that is holding many businesses and individuals back from spending or/and investing.
What would really underpin investor confidence would be to sink some deals with interested parties. If AB is focussing his time on that activity it will be time best spent on his behalf. After the Investor Day presentation CFO said it might be worthwhile keeping am eye out for reports within 9-10 days. I hope that is not misquoting him. If that is not likely to happen then yes, a Proactive interview would be useful.
Haggismchaggis1,
Plus of course is the fact the the grid is prone to failure, often at the times when it's needed most.
Where I live (East Yorkshire) we get a blackout period around 20 times a year, in stormy weather it is often several within 24 hours.
It doesn't sound much, but if you are awaiting for your vehicle to charge, even a 30 mins blackout can cause problems.
Then of course there is the cost to industry, even those with cut in generators powered by that ever increasing unpopular diesel fuel.
"£5,000/kW (installed), which is likely to be reduced as larger units are released to the market"
A 50kW DC charger with a short distance to a suitable power supply that can handle that level of demand costs about £50k installed, so about £1000 per kW. But the further you go from the power source the more it costs and the more power it consumes due to losses along the cable. When you start talking half a mile away, you're looking the same ball park as AFC for cost of digging up roads and putting in hefty cables. Further away than this and AFC is getting cheaper and cheaper.
Further away it could even cost £350k+ for a new substation, and cabling on top of that. At this point AFC is way cheaper.
Agree fuelcell, AB could do as you say. Maybe even a podcast? Would certainly clairfy matters and underpin confidence.
Jolly, I was struck at the shareholder day that AFC seem to have a more positive outlook about orders etc to the broker note and I suspect that a lot of this was because they had received far more interest than expected from customers the day before, not to mention the buzz over the new membrane and DeNora's positive comments etc, and these were all new developments since the broker note.
As you say, it may take a few weeks to get to actual decisions being made but there is nothing to stop AB talking about how much interest the company is getting or stopping potential customers confirming that they are interested in the products.
Yup fuelcell, will take time as the corporates/orgs that attended will likely need to provide feedback to decision makers etc and with us being so close to xmas, maybe new year we may have orders. But perfectly happy for the BoD to surprise us..
This was all from the WH Ireland note back on 11th November when the SP was 7p.
What we need now is some proper feedback from the demo day (after AB missed a fantastic opportunity to release these with the presentation) and some orders.
The broker would need to release a more positive target price than the 21p EV charger one once the orders start to come through!
There must be some massive sell order going through here as there has been a steady stream of buys going through in the last 30mins or so.
You got us hanging on every word Nick
Have i sent everyone fast asleep yet? A recommend will do if you still want it !
You will like the AlkaMem bit coming up :)
Key Catalyst: H-Power™ First Sales Revenue Forthcoming
We anticipate that AFC Energy will achieve first sales in 2020, which will set the scene for material revenue gains as demand for EV charging takes hold. We expect AFC Energy’s units will be sold for a targeted price of circa £5,000/kW (installed), which is likely to be reduced as larger units are released to the market.
First sales would represent the early penetration into a market that is destined to grow materially as EV’s, from a low base, entirely displace conventional cars in order to reach government mandated targets.
We believe the EV charging market most suited to AFC Energy’s H-Power™ systems is the high-end grazing market in a context where sourcing energy from the grid is challenged.
This is a market where premium pricing can be expected and where customer demands will be high, essentially requiring clean, reliable and relatively fast charging. We believe that car park charging will become essential at i) paid for parking locations ii) commercial locations and in particular at supermarkets. We further believe that off-grid sources of electricity will be required to meet fast charging demand as it grows.
The EV charging market is in its infancy and the outlook for growth is extraordinary
Many thanks indeed Nickel......that's all really helpful
42p sounds like a credible and realistic target (remember the days when the house broker used to put figures such as 232p on it!). Would give a MCap of about £190m.
I reckon you can double that as Alkamem becomes appreciated.
Thanks again.
H-Power Business Model – Strategic complementarity with other technologies and power sources, including grid power (despite providing an “off-grid” solution):
AFC Energy expects that its H-Power™ EV charging systems complement other technologies and sources of energy.
Importantly, it is likely that AFC Energy’s H-Power™ EV charging systems will be used in conjunction with power provided by the national grid because although power from the national grid is expected to have a cost advantage it is also expected to be limited in capacity.
It is expected that steady production of electrical energy from AFC Energy’s power systems will be stored by battery banks that will allow lumpy demand to be met. The ratio of the maximum power output with battery support for fast charging relative to the power capacity of the underlying fuel cells is easily variable depending on circumstances.
We believe AFC Energy’s technology could be configured in a number of ways to fit with other technologies.
AFC Energy does not intend to sell electricity at EV charging stations but rather to sell its H-Power systems to the operators of EV charging stations. The exact nature of its commercial agreements could take a number of forms. The company expects to enter long-term service contracts with the purchasers of its power systems.
The core component of the H-Power system’s fuel cell is the HydroX-Cell(L)™ containing the actual fuel cells (stacked together) which are expected to be replaced every four years. The less valuable gas delivery systems and associated equipment is expected to have a life of 20 years. The fuel cells and associated components are expected to be fit
into easily transportable shipping containers.
AFC Energy does not intend to manufacture the Hydro-X-Cell(L) systems which are the key components of its fuel cells and the H-Power™ system. Rather, AFC Energy has entered a joint development agreement with De Nora, a global leader in electrode fabrication to enable mass electrode manufacturing. By implication AFC Energy’s capital investment in manufacturing will be limited and it will benefit from the capabilities of an incumbent leader in this field.
Background on Liquid Alkaline Fuel Cells – the heart of the H-Power™ system Alkaline fuel cells turn chemical energy into electrical energy by converting hydrogen and oxygen into water, other than heat there are no other outputs from this process. The oxygen used in this process does not need to be pure and ambient air is all that is required; however, the hydrogen must be pure and the degree of purity depends on the specific fuel cell.
Liquid alkaline fuel cells have a liquid electrolyte, which is in contact with both the anode and cathode. Importantly, fuel cells do not generate any greenhouse gases.
Thank you very much for that NI. Much appreciated.
I've been watching the L2 book for most of the day and it is interesting to say the least. Very volatile at the moment but there is clearly appetite on the buy side.
Investor Prime - they have an unrisked price target of 42p but excludes a hell of lot of the upside they have denoted (some of which i have included already). I expect they will raise that raise substantially as the milestones start completing. As for a seller reloading, it's not a seller reloading but a buyer. The seller finished yesterday. It's ordinary unworked sellers that are choosing to close now but matter of fact is that any buying pressure now will raise the price. As for RSP , again it's platform thats a far superior to L2 and provides that extra level of visibility.
OK, I can get a live price of a shade over 15 p again.
DMA = Dopey Moronic Amateur
Direct Market Access - i.e. not via a broker.
Also, not quite sure what NI means by RSP...it is just another term for a MM:
https://www.londonstockexchange.com/prices-and-markets/stocks/tools-and-services/direct-market-access/direct-market-access.htm
DMA?????
Seller keeps reloading every time the SP goes up. It seems to be a DMA seller too. Hmmmm....
Wow. Someone really looking to crash the SP here. Some massive sells knocking the wind out of the SP here
Many thanks Nickel. I have been trying to obtain some good brokers notes like these for the past month. Priceless!
The near term elephant in the room is the membrane technology.
A market of $1.2bn and the vast majority of that is outside of AFC's focus (no meaningful amount of membrane alkaline fuel cells are being produced, just a few in laboratories), in the fields mentioned in the broker note
So, AFC are looking at licencing the technology out for use in those other fields.
Equally they have said they've been approached for a possible sale of the technology for use in other fields only.
A sale of the membrane into a $1.2bn annual market has to be worth at least £300m, possibly as much as £500m. If that happened, you can easily work out that the market cap of AFC W
would be at least that much.
If they don't sell the membrane in that way and go for several licenses for the different fields, they would be basing the price on earning at least the sale value in the first 5 years, with reasonable uptake of it by those industries.
So the broker may not wish to put a valuation on the membrane, but it's definitely the elephant in the room, as talks are already in progress for the sale or licencing of the technology, and AB has stated he wants to make money from it ASAP.