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AFC fuel cells are not powerful enough to compete with the grid at the moment. The biggest Kore is circa 160kw and is expensive to build, run and takes up a lot of space. That kind of power may be enough to power a circa 20,000 ft2 industrial building. This is why you haven't seen any deals yet for static commercial cells to be installed.
The sweet spot for AFC is where traditional diesel generation has been used - That's my interpretation. Temporary power.
I think the shipping idea is a master stroke - lots of potential in this area and if i was AFC i would be pushing to get a cell in the St Helena asap.
If NG (a company with 99.99999% reliability) interrupt your supply of electricity you are talking thousands upon thousands/ millions of people off of supply, cities/counties/the whole country. In that scenario, with AFC chargers not being likely for personal use at home, I see off grid chargers would be useful if you could fight your way to one still available if not reserved for emergency services whilst NG try fo restore supply. So I cannot argue, if the country had a large power cut then off grid chargers would be useful, is a shortfall in margin meaningful to AFC as a business and their share price.....no. These products will not sell on the basis of a Transmission level fault causing people to lose supply, against a reliability of 99.99999%, a distribution level fault, maybe, but that is nothing to do with NG margin requirements.
That is why I go to my original point, this is just posting something for the sake of it, it is really not relevant. In the distant future I see this potentially being a relevant conversation, but that is still dependent on many factors.
Hi BumbleB,
The distribution network is very different to the transmission network and there has been instances identified where it lacks capacity in regards to EV forecasts. The challenge of grid connection is also a real issue in many ways but the process is constantly being improved to keep pace with the evolving energy industry.
The issue for NG is different, in simple terms it is just about matching supply and demand and keeping the frequency at 50Hz. Off grid chargers will take some burden of demand out of the equation, most appropriately at peak times, but there is so much more to it and the levels we would be talking in the near future are negligible.
The peak times for electricity are the morning pick up around 06:30-09:00 and the darkness peak around 17:00-20:00, essentially when people are arriving home from work, it's getting dark etc. During this peak it may be just as useful having EV's connected to the grid managed utilising a smart tariff system, aggregation could even allow them to operate as ancillary services providing response. Similarly it would be a good thing having them connected during low demand periods to support inertia requirements. However it goes it is going to be interesting and the innovation in this area is going to be a great thing to follow. Overall though what I am trying to say is in my opinion, NG issuing a margin notice as they have numerous times over many years, is not very relevant to AFC, a loose link at best, particularly in the near term. I am not sure AFC are setting out to displace large nuclear power stations etc. I believe their strategy lies elsewhere.
I see, not unreasonable but that is a very long term view against the backdrop of current Transmission level margin shortfalls. If AFC could mass produce small hydrogen generators to be used in the aggregated STOR market then we are talking! :)
Orville. Im thinking more like the JĂĽlich deal which will be used for distributed microgrid applications and smart cities.
I am happy to explain myself no problem, although I was interested to hear your views.
What I meant was from an infrastructure perspective, I think the automotive manufacturers and consumers are adopting EV's/PHEV's at an increasing pace which due to policy will not just be linear. I think distribution networks and businesses may find during this period of rapid adoption that a product such as AFC's will offer welcome respite, additionally it could serve the more rural areas. This is still a way down the line and for possibly the next 5 years will still have little impact on Transmission level energy distribution. The real area of interest for hydrogen in Transnission is electrolysers for excess wind and also the trials currently being undertaken by NG to test hydrogen in the Gas Transmission system.
Orville. So what did you mean by this
The AFC EV charging stations certainly have a place, if not just for an interim period which would likely span years, though I am slightly concerned by their requirement to have an internal battery for times when there is no load. It is likely not a huge inconvenience to customers but is a bit of a nuisance in the speccing process I imagine.
All those years ago the AFC business model was to be a grid power generator... c.f. the KORE at Stade
Yes, National Grid have submitted a number of EMN's over the past 6 months for various reasons, typically when wind outturn is low. This is just a signal to the market to help fulfil margin requirements, typically by way of conventional plant submitting a physical notification of availability.
Currently what do AFC offer in this area, or even in the near future? You can assume the off-grid charger may someday add value by demand trimming but that is a long way off.
Please explain your view of how this news has any strong relevance to the AFC share price? Do you foresee AFC serving as an ancillary service to NG any time soon? Not everything associated with Energy means it is a positive or negative for AFC.
Don't assume I am naive to an industry that I have spent my whole career in.
Orville, you telling me your invested in afc, and you didn't think it relevant.
Orville...it says "due to unavailability of power sources"
That's where AFC come in so clearly very relevant.
This really doesn't have any relevance to AFC or their share price unfortunately.
Britain’s National Grid warned on Monday the country’s electricity supply margins are expected to be tight this week.
“We’re forecasting tight margins on the electricity system this week (from tomorrow onwards) owing to a combination of weather-related factors and unavailability of power sources over periods of the day with higher demand,” National Grid Electricity System Operator (ESO) said via twitter.
Several of the country’s nuclear power plants are currently offline, while there are also forecasts for low output from Britain’s wind farms over the coming days.
https://www.reuters.com/article/uk-britain-electricity-idUSKBN2AT2JW