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Crusty I think the next couple of months could be tricky but nothing that won`t Iron itself out in time, the drill news is what everyone is holding out for so fingers crossed
Yes indeed Frank quite right, split "pro-rata" between JV partners.
I also agree with you that AEX will not go bust. They will look to raise capital through any one of a number of methods post CH1 drill. But I do mot think that selling any of our 25% will be one of them.
I wish you all a great weekend.
CrustyPete if AEX went bust and not that it will happen it would be split between all parties wouldn`t it like Kilwani stake ??
Strange behaviour from that one.
It would be APT that could be in the market for some of AEX;s 25% PoC not ARA..... They are different entities.
Anyway good night all.
As the Ntorya asset gets developed through the work programme which Aminex has a full carry, the asset becomes more valuable. Hence, Scirocco are happy to fund their share of the programme and advance the asset until they realise value through production of gas or they agree a sale at a value that is acceptable. It's quite simple as everyone can see. Stale and crusty as usual.
Yes, if APT wanted it they could purchase some of AEX interest - but that is a ridiculously optimistic price. $1 of credit does not equate to $1 of cash. And that would result in a significant loss pf shareholder "value"
What rubbish.
"Just as Scirocco are doing" You mean just as Scirocco are failing to do PoC. And yes PoC even if SCIR could find a buyer, that purchase would need APT and Tanzanian Admin approval. Its a closed shop.
"Stale and Crusty" maybe PoC but to date, somewhat more reliable than your overly optimistic, one-eyed babble.
Come on stop being daft. Aminex own 25% and can sell it just like ScIrocco are doing. Stale and crusty as usual.
Nonsense? Prove it! And, whilst you are at it prove that any buyer would not need APT and Tanzanian Administration approval.
The seller would need approval by both APT and Tanzanian Authorities and I suspect that would, in effect, mean that the APT would end up acquiring it for next to nothing.
Please provide evidence of forfeiture. That's nonsense.
If they wanted, Aminex could sell 5% to ARA for $7m, if ARA wanted it.
If AEX goes "bust" they would forfeit their 25% to the JV partnership.
CrustyPete. ARA do not get 25% of Aminex's share of revenue. It still belongs to Aminex. As I've said it's a carried asset worth $35m so Aminex would sell it to the highest bidder if ever they needed cash in the scenario of going 'bust'.
Oh and PoC any sale of AEX's 25% would require both the Zubair's and the Tanzanian Administration's approval..... That gives the Zubairs all of the trump cards.
Which of the two options below will get the Zubairs the earliest return on their £26m investment PoC? $10m a year from AEX's 25% or their sub 30% investment in a set of totally dormant assets that will take millions in further investment, a change of attitude on the part of the Tanzanian Administration, and what another 4 -7 years (KN2) to generate any meaningful production income?
I partly agree. There must be value in the carried asset. The problem is that there appears to be no interested parties (look at scir). If they sell their % at a reasonable price, again, could shoot up.
But, zubairs have a lot of control over aex and there is more value in the asset than aex. If they show support in a funding arrangement then onwards it goes, but previous apparent support is no indication as it was a necessity to enable the transfer of 50% and operator control smoothly.
If Aminex goes' bust' then shareholders would lose out including the Zubairs. This will not happen though as Aminex have 25% of Ntorya with a free carry without Aminex having any debt secured against the asset. therefore it still belongs to Aminex. The obvious answer is that Aminex can't go bust as it will just sell it's 25% of Ntorya with the free carry valued at $35m. They would then use this cash to invest elsewhere or return it to shareholders.
ARA (Zubairs) have spent circa £26m on their sub 30%. It will cost them another $140m on the development of Ntorya FFD before production begins, after which they will then have to give AEX circa 25% of the proceeds every year thereafter at what rate? $10m per annum minimum.
If AEX go bust it will still cost ARA £140m on the development of Ntorya but the difference is that they will get to keep all of AEX's 25% of future revenue @ $10m per annum minimum.
Oh I hear you say but ARA will lose out on their 30% of AEX!! Wow fecking wee - $10+ million a year years to come versus sub 30% of a Nyuni / Kiliwani asset that is currently totally dormant, no capital to bring it back into production, likely a very poor return on capital in any event, no immediate prospect of developing KN2 (it will require a pipeline) and all of that subject to TPDC work programme approval.
Some may say that looks like a "no-brainer".....
2c proven resource of 770bcf of gas. That's worth the spend, right? We were talking about aex ability to keep going and you mentioned the zubairs being committed to their investment in them. So far they kept them afloat whilst needing the farmout to complete. Back to square one and the important question is will they now, when if aminex goes bust, they get their share of aex asset anyway after default? I'm not saying that will happen, but things are very untransparent and less than reassuring given how things have been.
A simple sign of progress and this will shoot up. The opposite, as always, is where this is.
It's going to cost the Zubairs more than £26m before they see a bean. More like £100m +
It's a lot of money in anyone's book.
personally, I think LTHs are responsible.
They have 50% of a multi billion pound asset with plenty of potential upside and so far it's cost them about 26 million. I bet they are well p$$see off :)