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Aimster, " What’s the point of having TCFs of gas without any near term customers."
well yes , also what's the point of ARA/Zubiar's spending/releasing the (3D funds $20m) if (viable) commercial terms can not be negotiated, so yes, i'm sure negotiations are ongoing, like, will they be able to sell gas privately or will it all be sold (as with the KN GSA) at well-head to the TPDC directly into the national gas infrastructure ? so i guess negotiations will include, who will control the gas at well, ie; who will pay for the 20 km pipe-line from Ntorya to the processing plant ?
The other and most important thing ARA would be considering, apart from commercial terms, is where are my customers coming from? What’s the point of having TCFs of gas without any near term customers. Hopefully negotiations are still ongoing with regards to exporting gas and perhaps heating the oil pipeline via power stations plus cement factory. Wentworth seems to have domestic demand covered.
Semantics BG that's all. I am still given to believe that any changes will not be significant. Though of course were that be the case it would certainly put a premium on getting the 3D's completed sooner rather than later.
If the drill site moves significantly they may well need to build a new road into the site....
yes i thought the same, "fine tuning" , but the wording has changed from "The new seismic will also deliver information that will be helpful in the final planning of the Chikumbi-1 well" to "The 3D seismic will be essential in optimally locating the Chikumbi-1 well to derive the most value in determining both reserve and development potential." ?
Yep, broadly agree with that BG, though that would still give them some wiggle room unless the drill site had to be moved by some considerable distance (which I doubt). I am given to believe that the 3D would simply be about "fine tuning" the drill site rather than dictating a wholesale change of approach.
Good Morning all and Crusty, so for the drill in Q3 2022 when would be the ideal time to get all the 3D done as I like Helium One approach how they scaled from Seismic straight into drilling, if this was the case then this could be in theory started in Q1 2022 but there is a lot of time between now and then of course !!!
Just before I go let me restate - I DO believe things will improve under the current administration. I just don't believe that it will happen as quickly as others seem to suggest. There are a host of structural, inherited inhibitors that need to be overcome before they can implement a new "blueprint"
The Government has demonstrated a different approach to a totally different industry, in a totally different position and which, for a multitude of reasons is not comparable; one that differs in scale, complexity, strategic importance and complexity.
I would further point out that HE1 has been operating in Tanzania for something approaching two years and has been receiving the same "favoured" treatment since long before the change of administration. This further underlines that the difference in the approach is the industry and the factors surrounding it that enables the difference in the approach and not necessarily the administration that is exercising it. And I have already explained the multitide of reasons why I think that is the case.
However you are correct, ICB I am not at all surprised that you choose to adopt your preferred line.
Helium is a gas! As far as I am aware the Government process is the same for Helium as it is for AEX’s gas. So you will probably not be surprised when I say in my view I believe HE1 has demonstrated the Governments new approach and it is reasonable to expect the same for AEX.
HE1 are not an Oil and Gas company but a Helium company, the first in the country and a relatively small one at that; are not hampered or affected by the potential size of the sector, the number and size of potential "players", the political history, existing arrangements, strategic mistakes and the structural red tape borne of over 2 decades of corruption and ineptitude. If the Oil and Gas industry was starting with a clean sheet of paper things might be a lot different but the reality is otherwise. Moreover the scale of the two industries is incomparable - helium industry is small, new and not strategically important as the catalyst and foundation of decades of Tanzanian industrial growth. Hence the scale and importance of decisions are nowhere near as complex nor politically sensitive. To attempt to compare the two is grossly simplistic in my view and ignores material and obvious differences.
The treatment of HE1 may be an indication of the direction of travel but, as I keep saying, things will take quite a time to turn around for the O&G industry for reasons explained above.
I would suggest for discussion that the progress made in recent months by HE1 demonstrates that the Tanzanian Government have changed their attitude are assisting companies. HE1 are currently drilling and seem to have obtained the necessary approvals without the delays we have previously seen.
I too remain optimistic that will happen Tanzania but unlike the rose tinted spectacle brigade I do not expect to see the benefits of that change "overnight". Let's face it, some of those more optimistic expectations have already been proven to be totally fanciful.... "Wall of news" and "seismics being completed by the end of September" already look ridiculous; hype and self interest only.
BG made good case for seismic programme starting in September and that now looks more and more likely to me.
I remain open to the idea of things changing for the better with the new regime but still believe it sensible not to count any chickens; the proof of the pudding still stands to be in the eating.
"2.0 They have met the TPDC several times in the last few weeks and discussions are ongoing with both parties apparently agreeing it needs to be resolved quickly." We have heard that same refrain countless times in RNS's and AGM's over the least decade - it has long lost any semblance of credibility.
Understandably the pessimists view but with the demise of the late John Magufuli, I optimistically believe change of President heralds a more welcoming government for Tanzania's future.