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" Cash is not a worry and I am not even factoring KN1 and Nyuni into that. " Not a worry?! Edgar what planet are you on? The Board have already stated that they will need a partner to provide the company with cash cover to keep the lights on let alone to fund the remediation of KN1 or drill KNS - that means another dilution of some description....
My thoughts too regarding spud date matherdj. heres hoping we get that farm out completion next week.
If the farmout completes in the next week or even month, I can’t see the spud date being that far away. Maybe 3 or 4 months out after completion if Covid doesn’t get in the way.
We already know the spud that could be Q1/2021 or later. Not hoping for sparks yet. Best near term news is completion of farm-out and/or some other corporate activity (e.g. buy out). AEX shareholders have got f--k all out of AEX for a long time. Like one of those "lifestyle" AIM companies being discussed in the media.
‘CAN gain...’
Problem is that cash is a worry with the ceo pondering coupling up with another income generating company in exchange for some of the Ruvuma asset. IMO they need to announce completion of the farmout along with or quickly followed by a spud date in the not too distant future to get sentiment back. Also get the seismic going quick smart. After all, they’ve been flat out working weekends and the likes so it would be good to actually see some evidence of that. Maybe then the share price gain gain momentum.
Mather
Good question! Obviously I have no real idea. But if it is fair to compare the 2017 highs then I would hope that the lead up to CH1 results (not spud) would get us there. The question is whether that is a fair comparison and I don't know. I think it is. The company is in an incredibly strong position with the farmout concluded. Cash is not a worry and I am not even factoring KN1 and Nyuni into that. This is just purely the Ntorya area.
A knockout gas find at CH1 (by which I mean 1.5 - 2 TCF) or even the elusive oil means we are then way beyond that level, IMHO.
Edgar, in what timescale are you thinking of that share price or probably a more tangible question is with what milestones reached?
Tanzania
Your target share prices are not far off mine. 7p was what it hit in 2017 pre N2 flow rates disappointment and at a time when CH1 was described as back to back with N2. Of course we had 75% of the licence then and only 25% going forward. The million dollar question is what impact the Farmout will have on valuation. No more money to raise and a carry to $45m pa but less licence. It depends on whether you choose to value on an earnings or a reserves basis. Will be interesting to see what the market makes of it. But I am holding tightly to my golden tickets. Been here so long that I am not selling too low now when the finishing line is in sight (remember the early production system promised in the farmout announcement?)
You’re just the opposite end of the spectrum Apache. Maybe somewhere between I’d guess. Needs to get moving though and soon.
Yeah. Huge for Aminex is a SP of 1p.
Tanzania, ‘huge for aminex’ is different depending on your starting point and his is from a big low. I doubt it’s along the same lines you are thinking or at least for quite a few years to come.
To remind everyone of that question posed in an interview with Robert Ambrose "what does all this mean for Aminex" his answer "its Huge". In the case of any merger etc, I feel 7p is fair and 10p plus is nudging towards Huge. I understand why it was deemed right we acccepted the Farm Out Capital Gains tax levy, but still find it odd that such a tax is paid in advance of approval. No doubt the small print exonerates any onus on government to grant approval once tax is paid.
Morning all,
I have said several times on this board that I think the Farm-Out is a "done deal" and we are simply awaiting the "rubber stamp". I have also said, and say again that unfortunately as has been evidenced many times in the past, rubber stamps are few and far between and take a bloody long time in Tanzania and therefore that we should not be making any assumptions about the timing.
Taking both of these into account my conclusion is that, yes, we will end up with an interest bearing loan but that, in the longer term it will be totally incidental. Pity that we need it (unnecessary and unfortunate expenditure, CGT etc) but not a material issue. As BG has alluded to and as the Board have stated - the more material issue is that, in any event, interest bearing loan or Farm-Out aside, we need a partner to help keep the lights on.....
AND, if anything, it is this deal and the timing of its completion which will determine the date that the AGM will be set.
this is wild speculation i know, but like you say news Monday/Tuesday is either going to be pretty good or maybe pretty bad, and also like you i think the farm-out is nailed on, but with all the hush hush the past month or so, I'm going to stick my neck out and say that i think Aminex, its share price, and us holders, have been positioned fore, and to accept a consolidation/merger, which we have been told by Robert Ambrose they are looking at, and i think as i said before the most likely candidate knowing what we know of them is Orca who is (asset poor but production rich) and possibly Solo's assets could be in the mix as well. like i said wild speculation, but this weekend i think that's all we got : )
the Farm-out is 150% nailed on unless there is a big con at play and I don`t believe that is the case speaking to James, I did however 2-3 months ago think we could of gone bust tho and that has since changed, my shares has gone down and up several times and I fear it maybe the case again before this gets going/better again but until that RNS GOOD/BAD we just don`t know, I`m focused on the drill date that is all GLA !!!!
needless to say, there has been no such clarity this time round, and for reasons why, it seems Aminex are not willing to share.
well, back in July of last year, we got two updates regarding long-stop extension,
the first, 19 July 2019, saying all parties have agreed to extend the longstop date to 31 October 2019 should it be required
Ruvuma Farm-Out Update
"Aminex announces that all parties to the previously announced Ruvuma farm-out agreement ("Farm-Out") intend to extend the longstop date to 31 October 2019 should it be required. Whilst acknowledging that completion of the Farm-Out is taking longer than anticipated, due to an ongoing review of active Production Sharing Agreements by Tanzania's Attorney General's Office, the Company and ARA Petroleum Tanzania Limited ("APT") remain actively engaged with the Government of Tanzania to close out the remaining conditions. The Company will make a further announcement if or when the longstop date has been formally extended."
and the second, 29th July 2019, stating
Ruvuma Farm-Out Update
"Further to the Company's announcement on 19 July 2019, Aminex announces that all parties to the Ruvuma farm-out agreement have agreed to extend the longstop date for completion of the transaction to 31 October 2019."
Just thinking about how ridiculous it seemed when they extended the long stop date to June 30th ... and here we are. One hopes there was a rationale for it though, e.g. a counter-party commitment.
Well, guess we find out by end of play Tuesday at the latest, not sure confident in any TZ Gov timescale outcome has ever been possible.
Hi CP, I guess it depends if they are confident they will get the approval in time, it’s just previously they have extended it ahead of time.
It just seems that the company are happy to sit and wait, regardless how long it takes.
I guess the zubs would be happy to see aminex go under and pick up the assets cheap
Nelly, I get what you mean, but surely they could only issue an RNS if they have information from the Energy minister to confirm he won't sign it by the 30th?
No RNS suggest they do not have that information
What on earth are you on about now Frank? Perhaps you could point out where I am disagreeing with you....?
I am not commenting on the likelihood or timing of the Farm-Out happening or the timing of it - simply that in reality whether we now have an interest bearing loan or not is somewhat irrelevant in the bigger picture. It is Farm-Out or bust Frank that's all.
Do I need to spell that put for you any further or have you got it now?
whatever the case if no drill in 2021 and Solo board don`t deliver by then too then I will waive goodbye to both stocks as they wasted enough of my time, James thinks very much it is a matter of when rather than IF but maybe you know more than we tiny folks know Crusty !!!
It's a carve up between this government and the zubairs.