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Tanz,
Pipeline.
"Aminex Plc’s AGM presentation in May 2022 anticipates “first gas” for the Ntorya development by the end of 2024 and targeted production of 140 MMcfd (million cubic feet per day) - a significant increase when compared to existing national production (128 MMcfd in 2020). It also highlights the importance of existing infrastructure (including the 36 inch gas pipeline from Mtwara to Dar es Salaam with the capacity to transport 784 MMcfd) and planned infrastructure (in particular, the pipeline from Dar es Salaam to Mombasa)."
https://www.pwc.co.tz/press-room/why-tanzania-why-now.html
And the CH-1 plan before ARA took over:
"Upon success at Ntorya 3 the company envisages an Early Production System (EPS) at the well and some remediation work at Ntorya 1 and Ntorya 2 with pipeline to Madimba gas plant."
"According to io’s report a gas development project at Ntorya could be viable with three wells Ntorya 1, Ntorya 2 and Ntorya 3 producing into a raw-gas pipeline to the Madimba gas plant, approximately 33 km away."
https://www.oilnewskenya.com/ntorya-3-ready-spud-h2-2018-ntorya-field-declared-commercial/
And this:
"Mtwara–Dar es Salaam Natural Gas Pipeline"
"The main pipeline from Madimba in Mtwara Region, to Dar es Salaam, measures 36 inches (91 cm) in diameter. At Somanga, in Lindi Region the main pipeline is joined by a smaller 24 inches (61 cm) pipeline delivering natural gas from Songo Songo Island. Both processing plants, one in Madimba and the other in Songo Songo are two trains (processing units) each and together are capable of processing 350,000,000 cubic feet (9,910,896 m3) of natural gas every 24 hours.[2]"
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mtwara%E2%80%93Dar_es_Salaam_Natural_Gas_Pipeline
One thing worth noting Tanzania - once CH1 has been drilled even if ARA end up selling at wellhead they are expecting there to be a high proportion and volume of "liquids" (condensate) from CH1 and other drills which they can separate off at wellhead and sell direct to market at a very good mark up. That particular element does not need a pipleine...
I note that tripemctripe is still peddling his one-eyed BS, filtering anyone that doesn't conform to his version of "reality"..... tripemctripe, the embodiment of cancel culture.
bullfrog, the options for the GSA are either for ARA to sell gas at wellhead directly to the TPDC, in which case the TPDC will be responsible for delivery of the pipleine and onward sale of gas to the GPP and to industry (or export) or, conversely, for ARA to build the pipeline and allow them to deliver the gas to the likes of Dangote and into the Tanzanian gas infrastructure.
At Wellhead is the presumed most likely outcome according to the BoD at the AGM, which would be a shame to my mind for a number of reasons; firstly because I would rather ARA have responsibilty and control of the pipeline / infrastructure build and timeline and because of the potential increased income and profit from being able to sell it on to industry and the GPP at a far better price.
No Tanz, tha plan for for a pipeline to be built to connect the Ntorya Basin into the GPP at Mtarwa - who will build this will be determined as part of the GSA negotaitions between ARA and the TPDC/ PURA for which the anticipated completion is for some point in 2023 in readyness of production in 2024.
The Dangote thermal power station that is powered by gas is only 22km from the existing NT-2 well https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dangote_Industries_Tanzania_Thermal_Power_Station
Could be a potential customer to take gas directly from well head but believe they already have a contract with TPDC to have gas supplied from them.
https://ibb.co/mJxdQft
Aimster, if you are right, I'm sorry I believe you are well wrong with an SP of 4p. I know there are numerous hurdles of red tape to negotiate but with the present sky high cost of gas staying where it is, it gives TPDC, Government and Ara the encouragement to get on and make it work. Of course as I have always argued, it all comes down to that drill at Chikumbi 1 Well in the first place.
Tanzania
The Ruvuma gas field is right at the end of a 300-mile 36-inch gas pipeline that goes all the way up to the capital city of Darsses Salam. So know issue with connecting the gas to the main pipeline. I THINK it’s around 30km away. Someone can correct me on this.
Maybe Crusty may be able to tell me, is there a route from Chikumbi 1 well to a pipeline where we can sell our gas ?
Best to go by timing rather than share price.
Hi Tanzania
My 4p SP prediction was based on the CH-1 drill ONLY. When the field has been developed to warrant a pipeline (maybe after CH1) and the GSA has be signed off, I would expect the SP to be a lot higher (less risk investors jumping onboard)
The 4p for CH1 drill was based on taking the SP graph on the run up to NT2 and factoring accordingly. Taking into account that now only 25% vs 75% albeit fully funded to production plus a large number of investors were spiked at 4-5p after NT2 waiting for NT3 and have been averaging down since, apart from a few like CrustyPete who IMO reads the market pretty well and probably has 10m+ shares at an average of around 1p. These LTHs will have a sell trigger point below 4p.
As Pete pointed out if a large number of rainbow chasers turn-up and Haggis keeps up the good work at pumping and is joined by a few others, we may go above 4p but it will not be sustained.
Tanzania, listen to CrustyPete he is grounded and realistic, but as Haggis rightly pointed out, no-one has a crystal ball.
Hi Aimster,
Can you please tell me, if Ara make a significant gas discovery at Chikumbi 1 Well, is the proximity of the pipeline reasonable enough to send our gas for sale ? If so, do your still regard that scenario still leaves Aminex plc at 4p ?
So following on, I can hear the question who do you sell the gas to ? Although I do not have knowledge of the oil industry, is it right there are tankers who whilst sailing to their destination, convert natural gas to LPG ? I have no doubt at all there are numerous of you oilmen you will spell out the pitfalls.......
Tanz,
I doubt it, as after I posted proof of AIM companies worth a fraction of £300m having many ii shareholders, he disappeared back under his rock, no admitting he was wrong there.
Please think about it Haggis. If the feasibility of a substantial discovery at CH1 is a possibility, and the feasibility of piping the gas to a place for sale, my guess is Aimster will hold his hands up and admit it's a scenario he's overlooked !
Tanzania,
Why are you crediting Aimster with any level of credibility?
His claim that ii's would never buy a small cap under £300m just tells you he knows very little about what he's talking about and is just bluffing his way though these boards.
Likewise his 4p should be instantly dismissed, as it's a baseless guess, a number just plucked from the air and a load of baseless reasoning (everyone will sell out at 4p or less) and baseless claims (the one mentioned above) then chucked at it to try and justify it.
Not that long ago we were all mulling over the possibility of the government selling gas from any significant discovery at Chikumbi 1 Well. I wonder if the idea is remote enough for Aimster to say he does not consider it to be one of his scenarios ? On the other hand If it is feasible , I would like to hope Aimster views a figure something quite a deal better than his original 4p target.