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The same I think, I've never felt the need to change my name, over God knows how long, ah, tell a lie, I did try and join AEX Telegram last year or when ever, and when asked for mob num, and me being the caveman that I am didn't have one, lol, so I asked my dear wife Mandy if I could use hers. Well little did I know, that Mandy was going to be my new name and thst I was about to imbrace my feminine side, lol. But straight away I found posting more relaxing and fellow posters, male I guess, more obliging. Well there now you know, the only other thing now though, my good wife Mandy has taken some interest in AEX, and some posting. Lol ??
Or Apache. Probably doing a Peckham rain dance as we speak.
good one RoJo, you have your own unique signature. lol
Tut tut...
Have you mixed up your logins?
Gas femme, can you remember how long it took for the last GSA? Pyjamaboy was out of pyjamas and tiptop was in a flatcap i seem to remember?
The positive and I could wrong unlike Char SP was killed somewhat on raise after raise, if successful this could go on a good run, only a thought
ICB888,
Yeah, those plus spud and drilling progress, and the Kiliwani 3D, plenty of news flow for a change.
Haggis,
I agree with your views on seismic releases and as I said previously I think this will be good for providing regular news flow ahead of the drill ideally with increasing resources each time.
Compare 26/7 to 5/8 and the Seismic tracks are still growing.
https://tinyurl.com/AEX10082022
ICB888,
I think it's pretty much guaranteed that we will get the interim 3D results in August and the full results in Sept/Oct.
This is because we have been told "APT has recently received the first batch of field seismic data and expects to have processed and interpreted sufficient data to confirm the final drilling location of the Chikumbi-1 ("CH-1") well before the end of August."
And when I checked the Satellite view last week I can still see the tracks being cleared, so they are not done with preparing the complete survey area, let alone acquired all of the data yet.
We know that they have had the first seismic before the 1st August so probably in July which will enable them to confirm the drill site by the end of August. On 1st August they were continuing field acquisition to complete the full seismic programme. So what we aren’t certain of is whether the full seismic will be available this month or if we will just get a taster when they site the drill with the full seismic coming slightly later. The 2 stage approach may be better to keep the news flowing because the market does like regular news flow.
gaslady,
I'll settle for that :-)
We nearly got to 7p on nt2 drill...now I realise we have diluted a bit since but if the momentum and news flow is right can't see why we won't get close if not beat that
Panch
My finger in the air guesses:
1p+ on seismic results (end of this August?)
2p+ on Spud date confirmation (beginning of November?)
3p+ on spud (Hopefully November if not December which has been the historic aex drilling month)
4p+ / 5p+ on ch1 results - dependent on what 1st and 2nd targets reveal - say March 2023)
5p+ if gas contract negs start (late spring 2023?)
6p+ if more future drills announced to complete FFD and or collection point and pipework to madimba power station begins
10p+ 2024 if producing income and FFD in progress
???p+ if all goes to plan and income realised by end 2024 / start 2025
if liquids are found in the 2nd target Jurassic, .well my crystal ball exploded at that point.
but hey, I would happy with 2p by xmas to start with...
If the last 5 years here has taught me anything about investing in Africa it is ...A bird in the hand .I do believe Ara have the political sway to see this through but if we got another bulldozer for whatever reason things could change very fast. My personal opinion is we should see a spike off 8 to 9p minimum on the drill as a steady stream on news flows into the drill from both kiliwani and nt3
Panch …. Our neighbours Wentworth are knocking out on average 90 MMcfd and they have a market capitalisation of around £40m the same as AEX at a SP of 1p. Albeit less resources and no excitement from any drills in the near future. So what will happen to AEX’s SP when the gas field is fully developed selling 140 MMcfd?. Nobody here knows.
Once the Ruvuma pipeline is connected to the main pipeline IMO that will trigger more international investment and well over 140 MMcfd but how many years away?
Panch, mine only an educated guess same as all having been here for 10+ years
4-5p end 2022 for a while perhaps then dropping
6-10p end 2024
15p end 2025 based on zero debt up to $40 MM per annum net to Aminex
or.......we could be bought prior to 2024 for less than 6p putting us all out of our misery !
It's all well and good fast tracking the ability to deliver gas, but also needs the demand in order to sell it. I think 40mmcfd was what they expected from 2024's first gas.
Thanks Haggis...I think..
I'm aware of the possibilities and was just interested in everyone elses estimations on price come the end of 2024 based on what we already know. if its sooner then great but id still like to know the price predictions based on current forecast at that particular date.
Look at what the new President has done since she took up office. In a very short time she has completely turned around the oil and gas industry from the corrupt bureaucracy she inherited, getting us back on track, the LNG plant back on track, and much much more. If she wants gas fast tracked she will get fast tracked!!
“Ntorya development by the end of 2024 and targeted production of 140 MMcfd (million cubic feet per day)”. …..just to clarify 140 MMcfd is NOT at the end of 2024 but probably a few years after.
Also when has the Tanz Government fast tracked anything?
As for share price, take a guess, everyone else will, as nobody has a working crystal ball.
"Aminex Plc’s AGM presentation in May 2022 anticipates “first gas” for the Ntorya development by the end of 2024 and targeted production of 140 MMcfd (million cubic feet per day) - a significant increase when compared to existing national production (128 MMcfd in 2020)."
And from that, a very important phrase that many don't seem to understand.
"by the end of 2024"
Not 'end of 2024' as many keep posting, it can be any time before that.
If CH-1 is a gusher I'd expect the Tanz Government to fast track it to production.
Forgetting the 3D and potentially increased gas /oil for a minute, if this goes to production in Q4 2024 as planned with what we already know is in the ground, what do you envisage the SP to be at that point?
I've not dipped into here for a short while so all the usual arguing aside, take all the variables and possibilities out and just give me your best guess on a straightforward figure, what's your opinion on where this will be in just over 2 years' time if we go to production with the info we have now?
Thanks for any input :)