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Application was submitted in 2017 for a 25-year Development Licence to permit development and further appraisal of the Ntorya Field.
RPS Energy completed a Competent Person’s Report (CPR) for Aminex in 2018 and estimated a gross Pmean of 1.87 TCF gas-in-place with 763 BCF gross recoverable gas of 2C Contingent Resources associated with the Ntorya Discovery. In July 2018, the Company agreed a farm-out of a 50% operated interest in the PSA to ARA Petroleum Tanzania Limited (APT), a wholly owned subsidiary of ARA Petroleum Limited, itself an associate of Eclipse Investments LLC, who then owned just under 29% of the issued share capital of Aminex PLC. In return, the Company received $5 million and a carry of up to $35 million of its costs for its retained 25% interest in the development of the Ruvuma asset, equivalent to a carry on the first $140 million gross expenditure on the project. The farm-out completed and operatorship transferred to APT in October 2020. APT also acquired Scirocco Energy’s 25% interest in Ruvuma and now has a 75% interest.
29th February 2024 RNS
Ruvuma Seismic Update
· 3D seismic improves Ntorya gas field volumetrics and reveals enormous wider potential
· Operator's geomodelling significantly increases Ntorya GIIP to 3.45 Tcf
· 3D seismic reveals considerable upside for Mtwara Licence with total unrisked GIIP of 16.38 Tcf
Charles Santos, Executive Chairman of Aminex commented:
"Completion of the 3D seismic data interpretation is another important milestone for the Ntorya gas field development, and I am delighted that the results are so positive. The quality of the new 3D seismic dataset was excellent giving the JV partners the ability to map in detail the Ntorya gas discovery, refine volumetric estimates and provide the basis to locate future appraisal and development drilling targets. We are particularly excited by the significant potential gas volumes now identified in other untested structures within the licence area. To place these volumes in context, the Ntorya accumulation is potentially the largest onshore gas discovery in East Africa and, with the sizeable new exploration targets, should be much less expensive to exploit than offshore resources. Further announcements can be expected detailing a future programme of drilling and an associated schedule to commercialise these exciting new opportunities and add further value for all stakeholders."
https://www.lse.co.uk/rns/AEX/ruvuma-seismic-update-onc65upi3b8jp5q.html
From today's Tanzanian budget speech by the Energy Minister "Cabinet has approved the issuance of a license for the development of this Block where the procedures for the issuance of the license to TPDC on behalf of the investor (ARA Petroleum Company)"
Crusty’s opinion is worth more than Stockcheque’s, this is a ubiquitous fact, universally agreed by all in the know.
Rojo is a counterbalance to the Prozac crowd. Like the Joker to Batman, he wouldn’t need to exist were people not dileriously quoting £1 share prices and complaint about the share price going back down on rumours with not back up. This stock is acting exactly as it should, upswings on rumours, stock dump when there is no news. It’ll all come out in the wash and when a rumour is backed up the share price will stick and that will be the new plateau. Boringly predictable!
Bigpot - you probably mean prosciutto, not prosecco.
Watch the SP is my advice !
Kid you he’s not Prosecco,and what’s up rojo has Ufufuo hit a nerve after the drivel you posted earlier or was it Prosecco ????????
Thanks Bullfrog. Well found. I's all go as we suspected. RNS incoming after that.
Translated from https://www.parliament.go.tz/uploads/budgetspeeches/1713966417-Hotuba_ya_Bajeti_ya_Wizara_ya_Nishati_kwa_Mwaka_wa_Fedha_2024_2025.pdf
112. Honorable Speaker, this project involves development of natural gas discovered in Ntorya area in Ruvuma block. Until March, 2024, the works carried out include completing the interpretation of the 3D system seismic information collected in an area of 334.9 square kilometers and continuing with the preparation of repairs and
well tests for the Ntorya 1 and Ntorya 2 wells .
In addition, the Contractor is continuing with the purchase of the Chikumbi-1 well boring plant.
Likewise, the Cabinet has approved the issuance of a license for the development of this Block where the procedures for the issuance of the license to TPDC on behalf of the investor (ARA Petroleum Company) are
being completed.
113. Honorable Speaker, preparations for the construction of a pipeline to deliver gas to Ntorya
The Madimba gas processing plant is underway where the Environmental and Social Impact Assessment (ESIA) has been completed and the Engineering and Construction Lead Consultant is completing the
engineering feasibility study to enable the pipeline construction tender to be announced
"A founder of Ruvuma, the largest onshore gas project in Tanzania."
"Committed to energy security and Prosperity for the people of Tanzania"
"Fuelling Tanzania's economic development and bettering the lives of its people through natural gas"
"Bringing reliable and cost-effective energy faster and cleaner for decades to come"
All the PR noise say's it is happening. The last two paragraphs particularly could not get past the nomad if it weren't known to be happening, as it would be seen as blatantly misleading.
The RNS is surely on its way
Prosciutto wanted you to believe that the 3D seismic results were going to be terrible! I know!! This one is an absolute peach :-)
Prosciutto said (just one example!): "The 3D seismic interpretation is supposedly finished. So, why the delay with releasing the interpretation? Their thesis being that there will be a 'World Class' reservoir present. It is fairly easy to avoid a fraud but what isn't easy to avoid is the failed, honest efforts with a good target, with good people and with a good thought-out thesis. But what happens if their thesis is wrong? Is it possible they haven't found that 'World-Class' reservoir? ... mais oui. It is one thing being sanguine about the risk involved but what if there is no 'World-Class' reservoir present? Are you prepared to absorb a collapse in the risk- adjusted NPV?
Need I remind you of the results of the 3D seismic results that then followed? If you insist! :-) The headline figures were:
"Operator's geomodelling significantly increases Ntorya GIIP to 3.45 Tcf"
"3D seismic reveals considerable upside for Mtwara Licence with total unrisked GIIP of 16.38 Tcf"
According to Encyclopaedia Britannica, gas fields of 3 to 30 TCF are classified as “World-Class Giants”. Unquestionably World Class then. Better than that, a World Class Giant! This is significant. Encyclopaedia Britannica explains that “supergiants and world-class giants represent less than 1 percent of the world’s total known gas fields”
Lastly, let’s remind ourselves of what our leader, Charles Santos had to say about the 3D seismic results and next steps:
"We are particularly excited by the significant potential gas volumes now identified in other untested structures within the licence area. To place these volumes in context, the Ntorya accumulation is potentially the largest onshore gas discovery in East Africa and, with the sizeable new exploration targets, should be much less expensive to exploit than offshore resources. Further announcements can be expected detailing a future programme of drilling and an associated schedule to commercialise these exciting new opportunities and add further value for all stakeholders."
Why? His opinion is worth no more than anyone else's, on top of which, you can read the statement from the Deputy Prime Minister and Minister Of Energy and easily come to your own conclusion based on the facts, you don't need anyone's OPINION, not even mine.
I am keenly waiting to hear Crusty about this
Desperate Hams intellect is not looking so clever having been ripped apart by a proper accountant 😂😂🤣
Yes BG - it's called intellect.
BG I believe the budget was approved at government level this time last year
Lol, no friends rojo likes to hurt himself, he must have some sort of condition.
Prosciutto wants to convince you that Aminex will get no revenues for condensate. For example Prosciutto has said:
"TPDC owns the 'Condensate'. Orca Energy Group and M&P/WEN can attest to that" and...
"Please provide evidence that the proceeds of any 'condensate' is forwarded to Aminex. Orca Energy Group / M&P produce volumes of condensate and ALL of the proceeds go to TPDC.."
What you need to know...
From ARA Petroleum’s “Revised Resource Potential – Post 3D Seismic” presentation from Feb 2024:
P.3 - “A seismic inversion, performed by Ikon Geoscience, calibrated to the existing wells and the new Ruvuma 3D seismic dataset, focused on further derisking the lateral continuity of the main Ntorya reservoir. Static geomodelling based on the Ikon inversion has resulted in the definition of a higher confidence discovery outline area extending to an area of ca 75km². This area now yields a revised and matured “Development Pending” unaudited Contingent Resource estimate of 3.45 TCF Gas Initially In Place (GIIP) WITH ASSOCIATED RECOVERABLE CONDENSATE OF CA 20 MMbbls.”
P.17 - “in a success case, SIGNIFICANT VOLUMES OF ASSOCIATED CONDENSATE ARE EXPECTED TO BE PRODUCED based on the results of Ntorya-1 and Ntorya-2 as shown in Table 1. WITH EXPECTED LOW PROCESSING COSTS AND AVAILABLE EXISTING MARKETS, THE CONDENSATE COULD PROVIDE A LOW-COST, HIGH MARGIN SUPPLEMENTARY REVENUE STREAM FOR THE PROJECT.”
So, evidence enough then that:
a) they have confirmed they expect around 20 MMbbls of condensate – and that’s just for the NT1 & NT2 area
b) they have put in writing that they expect this to be a profitable additional revenue stream
Please DYOR people and do not be hoodwinked by our resident troll(s)!
Try not to fight it. It won't hurt as much ;-)
Yeah,yeah, yeah...
Meanwhile the SP is languishing...
If any of what you post is certain, the SP would be flying. It's NOT.
One of Prosciutto’s favourite slogans "Encourage the takeover of Aminex.. Be happy with a 30% premium to market and hope to hell the takeover will secure regulatory approval".
Completely ridiculous!
As mentioned before, recent reports from Aminex’s company stockbroker value the company at 4 to 6 times the share price at the time of the report (1.03p) if the 3D seismic were to confirm 2tcf of gas and depending on scenarios regarding rates of production.
Obviously, the 3D seismic has identified likely gas in place of 3.45tcf for NT1 & NT2, potentially another 4.5tcf associated with CH1 and perhaps as much as 16.38tcf across the license area.
As I have posted previously, you can easily extrapolate out from Shard Capital's figures and work out equivalent figures for 3.45 and 7.95tcf.
In summary, the 3.45tcf for NT1 & NT2 may justify a valuation of between 7.2p and 10.66p per share. If CH1 brings us to 7.95tcf, that would increase that to between 16.38p and 25.57p per share. Ranges depending upon production rates. Those figures are unrisked.
Another related wheeze of Prosciutto’s is try to convince people that ARA is conspiring for Aminex to be sold to TPDC in a fire sale!
This makes no sense whatsoever. At the last AGM, the Board that Aminex gives ARA options for monetisation of Ruvuma.
ARA owns nearly 30% of Aminex. If/when the share price reaches several times current levels, the value of their stake in Aminex would give them back all the money then need to spend on full field development and more.
ARA could have let Aminex fail back in the dark days of the previous Tanzanian government and whilst everything was on hold. Instead, they propped us up with loans.
If ARA and the Aminex BOD wanted Aminex to fail or wanted to engineer the company being bought out on the cheap...
Why the loans to keep Aminex going?
Why do a raise last year to cover costs until production?
Why the more fulsome and positive updates over the last year or so – particularly the very positive 3D seismic results?
Why hire a new PR firm in Feb to get the word out about Aminex (new website already, the X / Twitter account is getting a workout too)?
Simple answer – you wouldn’t do those things unless you wanted Aminex to prosper and increase in value.
Our resident troll(s) want to subdue sentiment but, in the end, the value will out. The license secures the asset. Opportunity to buy in at these low levels may be running out IMHO. DYOR and good luck to all genuine investors here.
The Deputy Prime Minister and Minister of Energy said the license had been granted.
What does granted mean? To me it means signed off by those at the top of the Tanzania Government.
Once signed off it still has to go through government procedure the issue the license to ARA. This is what we are waiting for, nothing more.
Nothing is misinterpreted in this statement that's been published on several websites including a version they translated into English that says the same thing.
"In the small natural gas sector, he said, effective management is underway where, under the Sixth Phase Government, it has been granted a licence for the extraction of natural gas at the Ntorya well in the Mtwara region, with the last licence being issued in 2006."
The pertinent words being 'HE SAID', which means it is quoted directly from his speech at the Energy Convention.
https://youtu.be/-McXXaPA_60?si=XXNVYb2jDK7AygH9
What say I about what or whom Mrs Gaslady?
I wonder if it's the Ministry of Energy's budget that will provides for the Ntorya pipeline to the processing plant, or whether it comes from the TPDC own budget. ?
Prosciutto likes to cast doubt on Aminex’s future profitability - drawing misleading parallels between Aminex and Orca:
Prosciutto: “Aminex has a 25% interest in Ruvuma so Ruvima would need to produce 487.2 MMscf/d to equate to Orca's 121.8 MMscf/d. Orca Energy Group lost ($0.02/sh) in Q4 and the foreign exchange reserve deficiency was a contributing factor”…“If Orca Energy Group is unable to generate a profit, it raises the question of how Aminex could possibly be expected to do so. Why proceed with a business plan if it is destined for a loss?”
What you need to know:
Orca End of Year Results of 04 Apr 2024: “Total gross conventional natural gas production, including fuel gas, was in line with revised forecasts and averaged 121.8 MMcfd for Q4 2023, OF WHICH 80.8 MMcfd WAS ADDITIONAL GAS.
They only get revenues on the ‘Additional Gas’. The 121.8 MMcfd is a GROSS figure (INCLUDING AMOUNTS BELONGING TO TPDC AND FOR WHICH ORCA RECEIVES NO REVENUES). Using the 121.8 MMcfd is therefore an unfair comparison (and before anyone says it, there is nothing to say they will be able to sell TPDC’s ‘protected’ gas when agreements expire in July).
So, the gas volumes attributable to Orca are about 35% lower than Prosciutto is suggesting.
Then let’s look at that loss of $0.02 per share. Firstly, that is for Q4 of 2023 only. Looking at 2023 as a whole, they had net income attributable to shareholders of over $7million, which equated to A PROFIT of $0.35/share.
SO, THEY DID MAKE A PROFIT FOR THE YEAR. It was however considerably down compared to 2022 ($27.3million). The report explains this:
“Net income attributable to shareholders decreased by 75% for the year ended December 31, 2023 compared to the same prior year period, primarily as a result of the decreased revenue, increased depletion expense, including a one-time accelerated depletion charge in Q4 2023 with respect to costs previously incurred in relation to the 3D seismic acquisition and processing program, and higher net foreign exchange loss”.
More on the fall in revenues…
“Gas deliveries decreased by 15% for Q4 2023 and by 1% for the year ended December 31, 2023 compared to the same prior year periods. The decrease for Q4 2023 was primarily due to declining production from the currently producing wells and reservoir compartments in the Songo Songo field.”
“Revenue decreased by 23% for Q4 2023 and by 7% for the year ended December 31, 2023 over the comparable prior year periods”… “The decrease for the year ended December 31, 2023 over the comparable prior year period is primarily a result of higher TPDC share of revenue as an outcome of decreased capital expenditures and lower Cost Gas revenue”
How ‘Cost Gas’ revenue works…
“75% of the gross field revenues derived from the Discovery Blocks, less processing and pipeline tariffs and direct sales taxes in any year (“field net revenue”), can be used to recover p
More on that depletion charge…
“The depletion charge for natural gas interests increased by 52% for Q4 2023 and by 43% for the year ended December 31, 2023 over the comparable prior year periods. The increases were mainly due to a reduction in estimated proved reserves. Additionally, during Q4 2023 accelerated depletion totalling $7.0 million was recognized on engineering, acquisition, processing and associated costs related to the 3D seismic acquisition and processing program which will not be pursued in the absence of a license extension”
In summary then, because their license is about to run out and they have no clarity regarding if/when it will be extended, they have put most of their planned capital expenditure on hold. That meant they had fewer costs to recover as Cost Gas, significantly reducing revenues to Orca. Compounded by lower production in Q4. Profitability was then further impacted by greatly increased depletion charges resulting from a reduction in estimated proven reserves and $7m of costs for the terminated 3D seismic programme.
So, Prosciutto has given misleading and inflated comparisons of production rates – by including volumes produced for TPDC and for which Orca does not profit from under terms of contract.
Prosciutto then tried to make it appear as though Orca was making a loss on those inflated production volumes – saying, what hope then for Aminex! The reality being that Orca is profit making. However, their profitability has decreased sharply due to factors that are very specific to Orca’s circumstances and not relevant to Aminex.
ORCA - Cancelling almost all capital expenditure because their license is due to expire in 3 months and very, very little progress has been made on that.
AMINEX – Full Field Development Plan approved, Gas Sales Agreement approved, 25yr Development License either 1 step from approval or fully approved – this will unlock more than $100m of expenditure by the joint venture partners (Aminex fully carried for our share)
ORCA – reporting “a reduction in estimated proved reserves”
AMINEX – From end of Feb 2024 RNS “Operator's geomodelling significantly increases Ntorya GIIP to 3.45 Tcf” and “3D seismic reveals considerable upside for Mtwara Licence with total unrisked GIIP of 16.38 Tcf”…and “RPS has been engaged to undertake a revision of their 2018 CPR…with the aim of defining preliminary 1P and 2P reserve estimates. These reserve estimates are expected to increase substantially as phased development and project maturation progresses”
Very, very different circumstances then. Remember, as outlined by Shard Capital, Aminex is forecast to be very profitable indeed.
Don’t forget the $110m in unused tax loses and the $90m loan to Ndovu which together, as confirmed by the Board at the AGM will allow Aminex to have a number of extraordinarily profitable years once in production.
DYOR and you will see that Aminex is significa
Prosciutto likes to try to worry people about availability of US dollars in Tanzania.
Prosciutto's recent quote from Orca report, hoping to worry Aminex shareholders:
"There is a risk that the Company may not be able to convert Tanzanian shillings to hard currencies, such as US dollars, in the future as and when required. It is not known when the foreign exchange reserve deficiency in Tanzania will be remedied, if ever." 1. 2023 Orca Energy Group Annual Report
What you need to know:
On 01st March 2024, Tanzania’s Minister for Finance, Mwigulu Nchemba was quoted as saying that he is confident that the supply of dollars in Tanzania will stabilise once mega projects are operational, easing the pressure of importing necessary equipment.
He said “Once these projects conclude, the scarcity of dollars will be history. We are also focused on enhancing crop production and expanding the value chain to facilitate the sale of more products abroad, thereby increasing the availability of dollars”
Then, on 15th April 2024, The Citizen news outlet reported that “The government is optimistic that the dollar crisis will start to ease from next month when the high tourism season begins. The situation will improve further, courtesy of a projected rise in exports of traditional crops and an increase in gold prices, according to the Bank of Tanzania (BoT)”
If you want a bit more detail, the article continued:
“Tanzania earned $1.3 billion from tourism in 2021, but receipts soared to $2.5 billion and $3.4 billion in 2022 and 2023, respectively. Gold brought in $2.7 billion, $2.8 billion and $3.06 billion in 2021, 2022 and 2023, respectively. With projections pointing to a further rise in tourist arrivals and gold prices, BoT is optimistic that foreign exchange challenges the country has faced in recent months will soon be history. "We anticipate a surge in revenue from tourism beginning this May, coupled with exports of traditional crops such as cotton, sesame and others"
and...
“The government has implemented multifaceted strategies to address the foreign exchange crisis, including reducing dependence on dollar imports for commodities that could be locally produced, such as palm oil and sunflower oil. This involved developing improved seed varieties to reduce cooking oil imports. Additionally, the government waived taxes on solar products to lower import costs, aiming to reduce dependence on the dollars and alleviate its shortage. Reports also listed proactive government measures taken in the previous year, including providing export credit guarantee schemes and supporting local businesses to boost exports”.
So, lots of action has been taken and the situation is fast improving – with data to back that up and assurances from the Bank of Tanzania themselves.
In summary then, the evidence suggests that this is an ever-diminishing risk, and soon to be a non-issue. Beware the scare-mongering troll(s) and, as ever, DYO