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““Surprise, surprise there’s no update still
Delays as always or does it even complete?””
Pouring one out for you this morning Tez.
Tanker Delta Blue arrived at Palanca. Should soon start loading Azule (AET) oil shortly.
RNS likely either this or next week for sure.
GLA
Definitely. Either way the price chart looks primed to kick on for a 2nd drive at ATHs
Something going on. Might take a day or two to reveal.
Some solid buying earlier and one would think it could be a bit leaky.
Block 3/05 - Interesting to note in the CPR that of the 108 mmbbls (gross) of 2P reserves, 35.9 mmbbls is attributed to water injection restoration....$3.1bn of gross future revenue at $85 Brent potentially generated from restoration of water injection.
This is a huge financial incentive to the field partners to continue making further progress on this relatively low cost production development initiative, since the peak water injection target calculated to deliver the P2 figure is just 50% of the design capacity of the existing equipment/infrastructure.
Block 3/05A - outrageous good fortune for Afentra shareholders that the Punja Field development Area has very recently been approved by the Angolan Government as a Marginal field for tax purposes, when considering that peak production is estimated at 48,372 bopd of oil and condensate, with 203 million bbls of recoverable reserves.
https://www.offshore-technology.com/marketdata/punja-conventional-oil-field-angola/?cf-view
Oil up, Debt down risk of JWB***** posting lowered
Competition Authority decision in the bag the long wait will be worth it and surely a minimal consideration once effective date barrels since October 2022 offset against the consideration!
Meaning it is probably already priced in! 30s before 60s.
Since the Angolan Government has already approved the sale of a material working interest in the same asset to Afentra from Sonangol, the National Oil Company, it's virtually inconceivable they would prevent Afentra from acquiring the Azule working interest, particularly when Azule is the highest producing independent O&G company operating in Angola, and is owned by two oil majors who are currently investing heavily to materially raise production at its Angolan offshore assets.
In addition, Afentra were selected by the Government as the preferred partner to Sonangol for one of the most prized onshore blocks in the most recent License Round.
IMO - On the balance of probabilities, there is more chance of Dianne Abbot winning the Grand National riding side saddle on a Shetland Pony than the Azule deal not completing.
You bored?
Surprise, surprise there’s no update still
Delays as always or does it even complete?
Also looks like the mini-drop has bottomed out and ready for the next rise.
A good time to get in or top-up.
The exact same thing happened with Sonangol terry. And look what happened there!
McDade and Co can only play as fast as the Minister plays. Approvals imminent.
Keen to see the numbers and also future prospects. As many have already stated, I also suspect there is another backdated acquisition ready to be announced.
Delays continue, the guys at the helm not good at keeping to timeframes
Oil sank tonight
If McDade were to significantly veer from following a strategy other than identifying and buying attractively priced, high quality second phase O&G assets with material reinvestment and efficiency improvement potential to maximise reserves recovery, I would look to sell down my 7 figure holding bought at an average of 25.8p.
However, McDade clearly believes Afentra has an opportunity to replicate the success of Tullow, Talisman and Apache in the North Sea 20 years ago, not least because fortuitously Afentra has the tail wind of the recovery stage of a new oil market cycle, a strong post pandemic recovery in demand, and a major programme of disinvestment of high quality assets that are no longer material to oil majors and NOC's in a number of mature O&G basins around the world.
The holy grail is to find a lowly valued second phase O&G company with low producing costs, strong cash flow generating assets and highly material organic and inorganic development potential, run by an experienced management in a high growth, high energy price mature market, thinly contested for high quality assets being vacated by oil majors and NOC's, due to owners and Governments willing only to consider companies with management able to demonstrate a previous history of managing O&G assets to the highest operational and safety standards.
Should the company also benefit from a regional Government keen to offer highly material fiscal benefits and long license extensions to attract new investment to maximise recovery from large mature fields, and a drilling/oil service sector still largely beaten down by the ravages of a long recession, and a location in a region with mostly benign sea and weather conditions enabling shallow water offshore field production development and maintenance work to be carried out year round, that would be the icing on the cake.
On the balance of probabilities, over a 2-3 year view, I consider the risk/reward of an investment in Afentra as good as any O&G company in my portfolio.
AIMHO/DYOR
My money would be on a further shallow water Angolan acquisition.....NOC Sonangol have a large number of O&G assets potentially available as part of their huge privatisation programme.
In Jan 2024, the AET management stated they had been working through further regional M&A opportunities for 18 months.
So, relatively soon after completion of the Azure deal, the likelihood of AET announcing another attractively priced acquisition of high quality, long life, mature assets with excellent reinvestment potential and a very significantly backdated effective date, is probably quite high.
Would not be surprised if the next acquisition was similar to Block 3/05 - ie; a non-operated, significant working interest in a large oil asset being vacated by an oil major or NOC.
'Afentra’s entry into Angola in May 2023 saw the Company establish a foothold in a key target geography with a wealth of future growth opportunities. Afentra is acquiring interests in quality assets with scope to enhance and extend production alongside improving environmental performance, while positioning itself as a key stakeholder to support state-owned Sonangol with its transition strategy.'
'Afentra’s strategy is to build a material diverse portfolio of mid-life producing assets that no longer fit the portfolio of major companies. We seek to optimise, redevelop and extend their lives in a safe, responsible manner whilst reducing harmful emissions. These production assets underpin the business with low-risk cash flow. Over time, Afentra aims to build a portfolio of operated positions, levering the extensive technical operating experience possessed by the team. We will also acquire non-operated positions alongside quality operators and credible JV partners with a shared alignment to operational excellence and environmental stewardship.'
AIMHO/DYOR
Both Belle-ende & Bawbagzz posting carp today? They must be hurting & really feeling the heat - as their shorts burn bright and hot :)
This slight pullback is a BUYERS gift before the main event!
I'm STILL buying & so should everyone else, make them shorters feel the pain :)
Thanks for the chance to buy in the 42's lads :-)
Not looking so good now and who knows, Azule could already be priced in.
Desmond
'undervalued provided Azule completes as expected'
Nail on the head there, Desmond. Uncertainty doesn't help.
Completely agree. Its a shame the recent momentum has fallen.
But its not the first time a deal has been approved later than expected.
Is frustrating this cant move faster.
Any further deal announcement will be reliant on Azule closure first. They’ll need to know what finance is available from their existing facilities and obviously future cash flows from Angola operations. However, I wouldn’t be surprised to see a backdated additional deal announced upon completion of Azule given the boards stellar track record. At $89 oil especially this company remains grossly undervalued provided Azule completes as expected.
The other point of course is that AET should have moved quicker to buy production assets. They will be fleeced now at $90, good luck getting value now