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The only question that actually matters for me is are we going to get a producing plant within the next couple of months? If you think the answer is no then perhaps you should sell. If yes then I think this is worth north of £28m. Changes can be made to the BOD at a later date if necessary. Obviously if you have a large financial position here it won't be pleasant in the very short term if bad news arrives regarding slippage.
Very long way back for us all if this fails. Confidence shattered, billions of shares, and all other interested parties would be very wary. If we can't build a 3tph plant with all that time and money be embarrassing.
I would guess 0.25/0.3 if this goes belly up. I was very hopefully we would be 1.5p with excitement building and regular updates. Radio silence is not equalling no news is good news for me.
On the bright side if they fail to deliver Rowan will have no choice but to resign, no one will have any confidence.
No reply to emails from AEG or Camarco or not even a tweet of a JCB and some sawdust. The PR machine has stopped.
I can get a quote to sell 3.5 million for .7p today but we're sat here with zero relevant news from the BOD. They do keep us updated weekly though on the new legal cases...
There’s a difference between a gamble and an investment made having taken a view on reasonable information provided by the company and your own informed judgements.
The share price rose previously because the BOD put out specific information about an order and their timetable to meet that order. You could buy or sell based on that information and the subsequent price.
Now no-one has any idea what’s going on. Therefore to buy or to sell is just a gamble. There’s nothing smart about buying or selling. In actuality, probably the only rational thing is to sell because you are faced with a company who refuses to disclose anything helpful and has a history of failing to meet its promises - a habit I thought had been consigned to history. And I say this with regret as I still have a considerable holding.
Buying now is a gamble without doubt but buying any share is a gamble so it’s a question of weighing up the odds as ever. The company is valued right now at £28m. In my opinion that cap suggests the market feels the company has nothing going for it in the short term and that is definitely not the case. If we take away the negative aspects which may or may not lead to anything what would be a fair value right now? My feelings say many times more than £28m based on near term potential. For that reason I bought more on the recent drop. I also accept if certain events transpire we could soon be worth £14m! GLA
Seattle - you will know that i am generally very supportive of what the company / MR has achieved.
However, you must see that recent communication has been terrible. The Board painstakingly built confidence and then incinerated it in a few weeks.
As things stand now no-one can make an educated judgement whether they will meet their contract or not nor what the implications might be of missing the date. I disagree with you that they have no alternative but to say ‘ we have confidence in completing the prefer’. Their obligation is to inform the market as best they can. And in that they have completely failed.
So - you have bought some shares. And i have sold shares - never having sold below 1.25 previously. But there is no good basis for buying or selling. It’s just a gamble based on nonsense information. And I find that simply unacceptable - either lazy, incompetent or intentionally misleading. And i think the Board as a whole should take responsibility for that. I intend to do my best to ensure that happens - not as a personal matter but simply to get the Board to treat the shareholders properly.
There is a further question of competence.and transparency. Why did they change the design when they must have known the regulatory consequences of doing so? This question needs to be answered. If it was simply unnecessary then this really is gross incompetence. If it was necessary - why wasn’t the market informed - that created a material risk to the contact timetable that we have now seen crystallised.
June 14th is quite specific and one AEG should never have signed to if they knew they could not meet. Better to say no and we will deliver in August than ANOTHER failure to the lengthy list.
Seattle as you worked for AEG you also have a different view but it is a shambles and always has been. Even if we deliver in June (we won't) it is tainted by legal actions, permits, and continued uncertainty. Awful business practice but standard AEG.
Fair comment .
Seattle, as stated in my post I think it would have been more reassuring if the RNS stated how the deadline would be met.
They could have explained if testing can still be done without the new control devices? Is the rest of the plant having progress been made while this hiccup gets ironed out? How long do they think it will take them to produce the 900 tonnes? Etc etc.
If they had stated them, I believe confidence in the board wouldn't be as low.
I have also bought some more shares today. And yes that quote is all well and good for things such as overall market crashes or temporary dips. However not when people are scared about the long term future here. Not debating it.. just saying as yes I have also bought more..
The reason I bought more is not because it's cheap right now and I'm very much here for the long run. And as you stated yes I know US companies did this. However I think the board said June as pacificorp were most likely very keen on the June date. Just my guess.
Dear Bagga018 , I agree the BOD should and will take responsibility , it was ever thus . . However they said in the RNS “we have confidence in completing the order “ What else do you expect them to say . I was building a house and the builders gave me a date 18 months ago then it was weather , then Covid etc and now it is 6 months late at least . Surely you don’t expect the BOD to give percentages / chances of completing the plant on time . Probably , but I am guessing it is currently 50/50, but is it it the end of the World if they have snow , a strike etc etc and completion is a month late . If I was the Board knowing how critical the posters are I would have said end of 2021 from the start . Then if we completed in July the Board would be heroes. In the US quoted companies always low ball earnings expectations so they can beat the estimates every time . When I was watching MicroSoft ten years ago their earnings were always 25% up on estimates and they did this for 26 consecutive quarters . Anyway I bought some more shares today . “Always buy when the majority of investors are fearful.”
The reasons they changed the component baffle me, unless the previous one just wasn't working I don't really know..
I am of the belief that it can be tested? I did some light reading and I don't want to mislead anyone so take it with a large pinch of salt.. but I believe the licenses govern the amount of carbon emission per year that can be emitted. And testing should not impact this much? As I said I'm not sure. But it shows the failure of community that we, the shareholders, are having to do this for ourselves and try and understand. They stated in their RNS they think they will still make the order. But that's not enough! Confidence is blown. We need to be told not if.. but how they will meet that deadline, and as you said. Detail how long it will take make the pellets. Detail when the plant should be done.. etc.
This should have all been communicated. Not left for us to guess the maths ourselves and guess that it will take 3 weeks manufacture so we have 2 weeks finish the plant. We are guessing this! Why?? The board need to communicate this!
Also I don't think it's impossible make an investment decision as yes. It's a bit of a gamble but when you with up risk Vs reward.. at these prices for me it's in the court of it still being a buy despite it all. But maybe I'm foolish enough to believe when the RNS says they will still make the date as at the moment I'm weighing it as 50/50
You are right. Foresight has been scarce.
But if you consider the most recent announcement on licences: first - there is clearly a problem . That much is clear. But then there are heaps of unanswered questions. Why did they change the component if they knew it impacted the license ??! What is the status of the machine otherwise? Can it be run and tested or not? Whats the process for knowing whether the license is updated? How long does the machine is commissioned are you confident in switching it on to manufacture the pellets? How long does it take to manufacture the pellets for the order? Is there some flex in timing for the Pacificorps contract. These are a few obvious questions which could have been addressed. Had they done so, confidence would not have collapsed as badly.
What this Board has achieved is to make it impossible right now to make an investment decision. Buy or sell - its a gamble either way based on zero information. But the only hard fact that is clear to everyone is that this Board is not competent - and the NEDs have failed in this very basic requirement. As have the Advisors who have about as much foresight as a brick.
The rewarding of options was supposed to be to align their interests with that of the share holders. As I think we all fear further dilution and stuff..
However wether this has been a success is... Let's just say questionable.
As I've said before no one knows what happened with RMDE so let's discount that. And yes that should have been communicated better.
The board's failings have been in my opinion lack of foresight as well as communication. As shown by the most recent RNS which could have been prevented by, let's be real, just having a clue what to do and having an ounce of foresight.
The company made tremendous progress a few months ago with the contract, the convertibles converting and the Placing. At last we had strategic clarity, cash and confidence.
Everyone understands issues arise and have to be dealt with. But the quality of AEG’s communication has been so poor on every occasion that in the space of a few months it has incinerated confidence through its own actions. I find this the most annoying thing about this - much of it is self inflicted.
The Board as a whole have to take responsibility for this. The Chairman and the NEDS should have been absolutely focussed on communication. They have clearly failed. I think the NEDS should consider their positions - including the Chairman. Rather than awarding themselves share options - for what exactly? - they should have been doing their day job.