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but one thing was clear today below 4.2p brings in buyers in volume
i sold up and gave all my money to Insulate Britain to buy more glue :-)
I also added 400k worth today. Otherwise I would have felt I was missing out lol.
SO much for my plans to sell some at 4p. I updated my ‘plan’ as the rise from mid 3p range to over 4p was quite quick and felt there was momentum. 5p is my new 4p :)
i topped up too at 4.2p. some big after hours trades should see this climb tomorrow
well, thats the retrace that had to come and hopefully we are back to moving up tomorrow. (4.15p was a target which was hit today hence my expectation that that will be it. )if it really feels the urge to fall further the 4.0p would be next.
I had an amount of money put by to buy on the dips and this was one at 4.15p however, although i think a pattern has formed confirming that the retrace is over it could easily confound me so i only committed half and then if it does fall further will commit the rest at 4p assuming again that there is a pattern confirming the fall is complete. (Its not enough just to go to a support, other things have to have to happen at the same time, for me at least.
The RSI is now at 65.41 so still vaguely toppy but certainly plenty of room to go up (and of course down... never wear the "only way is up" goggles).
Saint's IRR comparison added with the high likelihood of success about sums it up. Compelling.
Spot on Saint the IRR is just incredible if you compare it to other resource plays for example the next imminent one CHAR has an potential IRR of 30%. Personally think that our rig is doing the second JSE workover at present but in any case we will spud in a few weeks.
@Staffy, bang on with that post. It's normal to have significant upside potential running hand in hand with high risks. Here potential is the wrong word. There is more than a 'possibility' this will be successful and the risks of this not going to production are low according to an independent assessment.
I'm going to go for the 'run with your winners' strategy here and staying in after spud. I suspect there will be a pull back but not a large one with the spread possibly further negating the benefit of trading. With only 35 days (Carnarvon think this will be the maximum time taken) between spud and drill result I can also see the SP moving up in expectation during this period as people take advantage of any pull back/stagnant price.
With such a high chance of success I see very little room for negativity, investors could have a clear run at assessing the fundamentals/TA here without battling competing noise .
@s.t. i completely agree. i am 81 years old and rarely, if ever, have i seen such a compelling story.adv is clearly a midcap in the making, and we are in at the beginning! there will be funding requirements looking further ahead, but as peterkin has pionted out several and various borrowing opportunities other than share dilution will open up after a successful b.10 drill. at which point i susspect the s.p. will be at least double where we are now. to me the risks of being out are greater than those of being in.
Don't be giving your stock away oiler!
Sunday, I'm also in at 2.2 but am still holding 100%, always a good idea to reduce risk but with a 85% commercial cos I would need to wait some time for this opportunity again considering we are fully funded and days away from the rig being on location, after Thursdays interview and rig move rns I will revaluation and probably sell 40% of my holding hopefully above 5p, I do expect a small retract but I will hold for another week anyway, i can see us above 9p with good results.
The price of oil is significantly higher than when the CPR arrived at 85% commercial cos.
The commercial cos is now higher than 85%. I love the risk - reward on this share.
It was just a matter of time here.
Remember a couple of weeks sentiment was low as we were stuck in that trading range.
Patience was always key.
I'm in from 2.2p, its been a long wait but paid off :)
I have de-risked a few but still a very large holding here.
Fully funded 95% Geological cos with an 85% commercial cos and a development plan in place with talks of an early production system due to spud within 2 week, things are starting to get very interesting.
In the water depth we are talking about here, the rig should spud easily within 24 hours of arriving on location.
I'm more interested in what they find than when they spud, bearing in mind its fairly imminent.
As Carnarvon are the duty holder and not some Super Major, I think we will hear once the rig is on location.
This is a considerable milestone for both companies. For Advance it is our maiden development and catalyst project, for Carnarvon it is near term production to boost their portfolio.
Think we will het an RNS once on spudding location.
He1 did announce the mobilisation of their drill rig, but I can not remember with other companies that I have been invested in. IMO a companies maiden drill is of such significance that mobilisation of the rig rig is price sensitive news - but that is just my opinion.
I'm noticing the position of the rig hasn't been updated for 23hours on the marine traffic link. Maybe it is moving already. Maybe it isn't. Either way it can not be long now.
I would concur with Wolf's sentiments. Same goes for Saint-Tropez. Very reassuring (I am a relative novice). In fact, forget RSI, maybe I'll time my exit on when they stop posting here, haha. Joke.
You didn't need to post that Wolfie, so that was very kind of you to say.
Fingers crossed for all of us here that this goes well. atb
Hi Wyn - I'm always comforted if I'm in a share and you suddenly pop up.
I'm not a TA guy but am starting to learn indicators and timing entry and exit based on MAs and RSI and have three very good CFD positions in Rio Tinto, HSBC & more recently Boohoo.
I can't think of anything you have ever written that I have disagreed with.
good stuff thanks... in go long and just track moving averages as a way of checking on the health of the share.... using trading view have now put some RSI on and fib retracements... guess it's hard to know sometimes and just look for news and strength of the market, sometimes hard to know but technical info is always useful
First things first.
The RSI can be over layed on any time frame from 1 minute upwards. Every different time interval will generate a correspondingly different RSI figure and therefore pattern.
I use close of play figures because I am in it for the (relatively) long term, ie several weeks, so its not helpful for me to use intraday RSI figures and patterns because it is working on a time frame that is too short for MY time frame (ie many trading days).
If I was day trading then yes, I would use intraday time intervals and over lay the RSI with them. This is very important imo, matching the time interval to the length of time you expect to hold the stock.
Now for the contradiction:
This is is quite personal and based on my experience and judgment so I am not in any way recommending this.
However I will look at intra day time intervals if a stock has fallen to, or around a support line because 2 things are going to happen: Either the stock will carry on falling through the support (and therefore I don't want to buy as I can only go long), or it is going to bounce off the support line and reverse upwards.
Reversals are the most profitable times to buy as you are getting in at, or very near, the low before it reverses and moves up and away. Because of this reversals are the hardest to spot and profit from. Because of the profit potential I will look to see if a reversal is likely and there is a pattern that the RSI makes in conjunction with the SP that says a reversal is likely underway.
Because a reversal will happen during trading hours I have to react during the day and not wait until close of play, hence I will on occasion, use intraday time intervals. But I must stress this is a higher risk straegy and I would not recommend this to anyone unless they were very familiar and experienced in all things TA (I'm not trying to big myself up believe me, because I have made every mistake in the book to get to what I am comfortable with now with over 20 years of using TA. it doesn't take 20 years of course but nevertheless you do get a feel for whats happeing if you just keep staring at prices hour after hour, day in and day out.
Now, that may sound boring to some and I would not argue that its not, but for me its very absorbing. The best analogy is like a 5 day cricket test. There are lots of little by-plays as the game unfolds and the advantage can swing from one team to the other and it is exactly the time invested in the 5 days that makes the final outcome so rewarding, and so it is for me in TA.
Thanks for that wyn. So it's my thinking that's been too linear. You explained it very well and in far more detail than I was expecting (hoping), which is greatly appreciated.
One point that crosses my mind; you only make decisions on close of pay RSI - does that not mean if there is a strong move intra-day and a small-ish subsequent pullback you wouldn't be able to take advantage of that pullback to increase position? I.e. the daily indicator would only be useful on a fresh day, were the RSI over 80, thus the shorter intervals RSI would only help were the SP to fall slightly intra-day.
Not a critique, just interested. And for what it's worth, I would say I prefer the simplicity of daily over shorter intervals..wouldn't want to be making so many investing decisions on 5 min data etc.
Wyn Thanks for all the info on RSI.I had always used it at 30/70 so will try 20/80.
Morning Rum, This is definition: "The Relative Strength Index (RSI), developed by J. Welles Wilder, is a momentum oscillator that measures the speed and change of price movements. The RSI oscillates between zero and 100."
So assuming you are right and we have lots of up days then you are right to assume the RSI will be near or in the over bought area. However its not a straight line thing:
For instance. Say we have a 5p rise (more than double the current SP) in one day. (that would be nice!). The RSI could easily be say 95 so very very over bought but it might (probably would), induce some profit taking and the SP the next days falls 1p that then might bring the RSI back to 65, and allow a 1.5p move the following day so now we are back to 80p but the SP is now 9.5p.
All the above numbers are just made up, but I am trying to convey the example that the RSI is not a linear indicator.
So again as a crude example the RSI won't based on a 1% move = 10 points every time. it reflects momentum. Thats the point.
On a strong move up small retraces quickly allow room for further gains .
(It works the same going down too and on both extremes you have to be careful.)
HE1 as an example in August:
RSI 53.9 (Plenty of room for expected upward movement ) SP 26.05p
Bad news RSN
SP crashes to 12.5p RSI 23.58 (Technically not oversold)
Next day SP 11.3p RSI 22.44
A brief rally and then a couple of days later
SP 8.52p RSI 28.46
So although the RSI was 23.58 at the end of the day of the crash, a few days later it had devalued another 30 plus % to 8.52p but the RSI was higher at 28.46, leaving room for further falls. (Its been bumping along the bottom at around 7p and is now 6.78p with an RSI of 33.76p
So its all about momentum.
Its one of those experience things, the more you look at it and chart it , the more you get a feel for it, but as indicators go I find it very good and by good I mean it works more often than not. which is all TA is trying to do, is an odds game. When any or some indicators line up is is just increasing the odds of what is most likely to happen next. Its not guaranteed and it does not pretend to be so.
Sorry it all gets a bit dry and wordy which is why there are so many books on all the various indicators that are available I guess. (And I am not an author that would be much more concise and clearer I am sure!) ATB