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Tonnacombe - not sure on your experience to be honest as all the points your friend from Vancouver raised on the phone to you are basic survey principles, especially for an open location Jack-up rig move. Magnetic declination will play no part - what you're talking about is convergence between gyro (true) N and local grid N. Antenna positioning while the rig is drilling won't make a difference, in most cases the survey crews are off the platform after the drill string has spudded and all survey kit is removed. Rig isn't going to move again. Nearly all companies provide teams with a .geo file now with a pre-determined geodesy and client supplied conversion coordinates. Highly likely client rep would have checked the final rig position when the spud-cans hit the seabed.
'he had the contract to supply hydrographic surveyors in the N sea before he sold they company.' - not sure if you know how business works but there are hundreds of survey companies in Europe that individually tender for projects, with multiple companies being assigned per Rig / AHV / Construction vessel - regardless of the client. You introduced yourself as a Plymouth Graduate - Hydrography. That's my background. Doesn't mean anything to me though, I've seen graduates and seniors unable to even level a tripod...
... I feel I'll get hate for the above as its not in line with peoples positive expectations of revival but as I mentioned in my previous post you're just prolonging the inevitable. Hypothetically, even if there was a major mess up - do you think the SP will shoot back up to 4p? Most likely did drill in the wrong location - but not due to positioning error, due to resolution errors in 2D data quality (which raises the question of overall seismic value)..
Turned into a bloodbath here with people trying to offer advice to the individual survey contactor who positioned the rig - to others trying to question if the drill even took place!?.. If you're really in doubt go on MarineTraffic and have a look at the area yourself.
Good evening to all
Ignore that last post that was the trading halt pending the announcement - generally the operator will
release news first and has to do so as soon as they’re aware of anything price sensitive, so worth watching Carnarvon announcements on the ASX: https://www.asx.com.au/asx/v2/statistics/announcements.do?by=asxCode&asxCode=Cvn&timeframe=D&period=W
The news was actually released around 9 hours earlier than that anyway… https://www.carnarvon.com.au/wp-content/uploads/2022/01/B10Drilling.pdf
Oh btw...about the timing of the RNS on Wed morning... don't know about that... but I was on the lookout from 7am since Monday, in fact I have a program that notifies me within a minute of an RNS release all day. I was the first to post an RNS was released re RNS on Wed morning... I also just noticed Oil found without reading the column length reported in all the excitement... it's only after I properly went back to read it, noticed column was only reported as 12M.
TBH EnergyGeo called it spot on for Wednesday... so I was expecting it, as I would've thought most would of going on his post.
@LegalWolf, I'll be honest mate..I didn't see anything wrong with the wording of interims aside for that one "Associated risks in the business", But I would've thought they'd have to include that in an interim as it wasn't a trading update by view of nomad.
Ok, so now the selling on Tuesday... Well it started off pretty good as I know because I got a quote for 5.55..(oh how i wish i'd pressed the mouse button...hindsight 'n' all), then yes the sp receded to 4.8 IIRC..or 4.7p cob. Now we know that larger staked investors had prob got a direct-line to the BoD, so yes they would've been privy first. That deal was prob in place before they even started drilling, in fact prob at placing... There's nowt that can be done about that, and you'll most likely find that across the board in AIM on any placing. Soon as brokers got wind of large sells going thru, it would've started a chain reaction and questions being asked across the trading room floors, so domino effect there!
TBH, If the news had leaked properly we would had our Wednesday on Tuesday.. but that didn't happen. I duno what was shared between BoD and larger stakeholders on Tureday, but the stakeholders prob derisked on any preliminary drill result.
Hi Bladey - I don't take issue with your post, where you say that LP was simply doing what all AIM CEOs do, which is talking up the company. Nor do I retrospectively blame him for having great confidence in an independently verified 95% COS drill.
But what is your perspective on the selling the day before, the release of interim results, and then issuing the RNS minutes before opening, which in the time some people had to read it, would have had the word 'hydrocarbons' leaping out at them and not really having time to appreciate or digest that it was not actually good news.
Blameless here as well?
They wouldn't have issued an rns like that if there was hope I'm feeling now. Expressing the risk associated in the interim results was a clear sign after dismissing all questions on this prior to this...clearly they would have tried to bolster the SP with news if there was anything positive.
Thats how I'm reading it now after analysing the last few days.. Hope is always the last thing to die
Also I'm assuming the operator and their services would be responsible for the optimal positioning of the drill... So if there was an error with positioning of the drill, would that not be Canarvon's responsibility?
this board is toxic still need to see the next rns
directors have put large amounts in here also
Posts like one from Tonnacombe make things very interesting.
I just imagine his friend now coming in like the Bruce Willis drilling crew in Armageddon.
Maybe at the end of all of this, we will also get another soundtrack by Aerosmith. "I don't wanna miss a thing" (including the drill target).
I've spent the best part of yesterday and today going thru the presentation seismics and the only thing I can come up with is exactly what Tonnacombe says, they've basically drilled offset to height/topside of attic which would make sense. Basically they've drilled the side of the attic giving a shorter column intersection. Now depending on the inclination of the slope they need to assess the distance from drill where the top of the attic would lie, this may be ascertained from the wirelines using the data to recognise the direction of the slope.
Also people need to stop ****ging of the BoD and other engineering parties associated with the drill. All this tosh about Peterkin overly confident in interviews and being smug ffs.. What the f**k did you expect him to be doing? Trash talk his operation?? Jeez.. ffs, why did u watch interviews after interviews. The truth is this ... he and the BoD did bring background experience from their past positions with some large corporations! THEY did have skin in the game and yes they did take a wage, but who or which BoD does not take a wage on AIM or some concessionary benefit.
Also both RISC and DUG are respected in their fields of expertise so what's the point in bad mouthing them??
This brings me to Canarvon, I'm definitely NOT happy with those f**kers to say the least. They shouldn't have anything via interview, (before an official closure RNS), and this does not bode well for them to abandon and not follow thru with any remedial addressing of the problem before completely giving up. Any future JV parties will hopefully take note that they care little for partners after we stumped up the major fund for operations. Total ******s IMV.
What happens going forward we'll have to see. Like most I've also lost a considerable amount, nowhere near as much as some on here and I'm genuinely sorry for that... but need to be positive looking forward and hoping there's a plan now if a mistake in the drilling position was made. We're still to hear from BoD and I hope they take heed of Tonnacombe's email as it's by far one of the most positive posts I've read today.
So the data that they paid £20 million for is five years out of date.
I think I'd expect more up to date data for that sort of outlay.
Hi Gary hope you are well, I agree RISC are not a cowboy outfit..
As i said previously looking back there isnt anything i wouldve done differently (apart from sell a day earlier :-) ) I knew the risks and i was willing to take them.
I feel sorry for a lot of the guys stuck in here from the Dave Whitby Andalas days. Its a double kick in the nuts for them.
The last update from RISC was on March 23 2021 (reiterating the CPR they’d signed off at the end of 2020), and previously they’d done work on the Buffalo field for Carnarvon (2017 I think, but don’t quote me on that as an only going from memory!).
Never mind RISC, what about DUG.
Nice to know.
Could be money well spent.
Martin doesn’t work cheaply, but if someone f up (geodetic)he would find it
Those saying that RISC (which carried out the CPR) are some sort of shady outfit etc might want to actually have a look at that company (have been around for over 25 years) and some of the companies they’ve worked with during that time! Seismic interpretation and reservoir modelling is not an exact science - you just have to accept there is risk and also a margin of error (especially when it comes to something that is a few thousands metres down and where tens of metres difference in depth can be the difference between hitting oil or water, for instance!) which can make a huge difference to the outcome of a drill.
Does beggar belief.
Next thing they will be telling us they were drilling
In the wrong ocean.
PrivateGrass, "I used to be an offshore surveyor. Very rare that a rig would be jacked down in the wrong position - that's why datum transformations are confirmed using coordinates prior to loading into positioning software."
Mistakes are made all the time, there is human error, software error. We have a prime minister that is incompetent, what are drill workers?
There has been an error made somewhere, the next rns will clarify it.
Very interesting posting from you.
So in your opinion can the problem be sorted relatively easily and cheaply.
GPS antenna positioning
Ok, just spent an hour on the phone to my friend in Vancover, one of the worlds top hydrographers, he’s come up with a few suggestions,
1) Check Geodosy of both seismic survey and drill rig positioning
2) Magnetic declination
3)Antenna positioning , has it been changed whilst drilling : port to starboard side.
4) Tail bouey error
The above company is run by a guy called Martin Rayson, brain the size of a planet worked with him in Africa, writes seismic programs for surveys etc, anyway, my friend and him, made a lot of money sorting problems for Pensoil and then a super major ( kept missing drill targets) Sound familiar?
His words were ( we made them literally millions)
Martyn has built his company on just such occurrences.
No offence Private Grass but my friend says your talking the perverbial, you’ve probably worked for him by the way if you ever worked for shell or BP as he had the contract to supply hydrographic surveyors in the N sea before he sold they company.
Obviously I’ll pass the suggestions on to ADV management
What makes you say that dixy?
The whole way this has been handled is obscene. Peterkin and his ramping, the way he released the interims the day before the news. Then the way Canarvon started bleating to some grubby media outfit immediately after rubbing salt in the wounds.
Feels like Canarvon took Advance for a ride with trumped up seismic data that was reinterpreted by some shady crew so they could have a free drill. The way Canarvon have played it, it looks to me like they knew this was more of a 20% CoS rather than a 85% CoS drill as it was sold to Advance and retail investors. I'd like to know if Peterkin was in on it, or if he really is as clueless as he looks