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Bad scene today. Must be mad, but I've added on the price weakness. With this share it's a total punt, I freely admit.
I think the wording of the SR announcement is pointing towards a trade sale, that said they talk about good financials and banking facilities.
They've got a highly automated manufacturing operation, they've got good market presence, but the weakness apart from energy which is affecting many industries is their reliance on parent reels.
TR1. Institutional investors snapped up 5% today. The unremitting decline in the share price reversed on a sixpence this afternoon. Tomorrow's results day - let's see what it brings.
It's Poohey bum time unhooked .time ******s out there thinking something else be needing plenty of rolls. time to up, share price be up !
Further thoughts on fredintheshed's post.
On reflection, if the purpose of the announced full strategic review really is to "ensure that the shareholder value is optimised", it could be encouraging. I mean it's exactly the sort of thing a major shareholder or activist investor might insist on and I wouldn't be surprised if that's what's going on behind the scenes here. I can't imagine they'll be providing any further details on Tuesday, if the review has just started.
Per the update, the board seem v confident they can pass on the cost increases (and quickly). I believe them. Leaving aside stocking/de-stocking, demand is reliable and alternative suppliers will be facing their own margin issues.
I feel better about Accrol than I did yesterday... and that's despite today's further drop. Although I've invested more than I should've, I might shove some more into this share. Possible recovery situation.
You could well be right there.... but after this period of poor trading, I hope they don't contemplate a fire sale of the business.
I was hoping to hear that they were successfully managing costs and even beginning to see inflationary pressures abate... couldn't have got that more wrong. Suppose you need loads of electricity in the production of bog rolls!
It usually means they will look for a buyer. If they find one then could be good news (bought out at a decent premium). If not, we will see a slow grind back to expected profitability. This company does seem to keep getting caught up in cost rises which it hasn't learned to anticipate. But - it couldn't be a more basic product, there will always be demand.
Yes. The chilling phrase is that they say they need this strategic review due to short-term "but inherent" volatility in earnings over the past year...
What does that even mean? Are they saying they've just realised that there are earnings issues which are intrinsic and fundamental to this sort of business?
Yes, I'll certainly be looking for clues.
By my reckoning from the October update t/o is £10m less than expected and EBITDA c £9m less than expected in the Autumn. Which suggests the extra costs are c £6m more. Not surprising given fuel and shipping costs. Not much management can do in the short term other than ride it out and push the costs on as far as quickly as possible. Tricky to pass on costs in the short term that were not expected. But if they can get back on track by my rough jottings the various updates imply EBITDA (and positive cash flow) of £20m plus next year.
What is more interesting is the “strategic review”. That can cover all sorts of things. Does the RNS imply more detail next week? In my experience these things take months….unless there is some unknown pressure than means the unscheduled update was required. So yes, why, is a good question. But maybe next week will just be more detail on trading. Must remember to get up early next Tuesday.
Maybe we will see some research next week that will give a few more clues.
In the update they claim that "the underlying business is in good shape and the Board remains confident in the medium-term prospects for the Group".
But then say "In light of the above and the short-term but inherent volatility of earnings experienced in the current year, the Board has concluded that it is now appropriate for Accrol to conduct a full strategic review of its business"....
Eh? Which is it?
...and reliability is exactly what we didn't get from today's Trading Update. More pain.
Whether for a bog roll or Accrol, I'm looking for reliability not excitement!
Executive chairman holds 3.5%.
These only so much excitement you can get with bog roll. If the management had a decent holding, maybe this would have maintained confidence.
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