We would love to hear your thoughts about our site and services, please take our survey here.
London South East prides itself on its community spirit, and in order to keep the chat section problem free, we ask all members to follow these simple rules. In these rules, we refer to ourselves as "we", "us", "our". The user of the website is referred to as "you" and "your".
By posting on our share chat boards you are agreeing to the following:
The IP address of all posts is recorded to aid in enforcing these conditions. As a user you agree to any information you have entered being stored in a database. You agree that we have the right to remove, edit, move or close any topic or board at any time should we see fit. You agree that we have the right to remove any post without notice. You agree that we have the right to suspend your account without notice.
Please note some users may not behave properly and may post content that is misleading, untrue or offensive.
It is not possible for us to fully monitor all content all of the time but where we have actually received notice of any content that is potentially misleading, untrue, offensive, unlawful, infringes third party rights or is potentially in breach of these terms and conditions, then we will review such content, decide whether to remove it from this website and act accordingly.
Premium Members are members that have a premium subscription with London South East. You can subscribe here.
London South East does not endorse such members, and posts should not be construed as advice and represent the opinions of the authors, not those of London South East Ltd, or its affiliates.
wasar, to be honest, unless the individuals intention is just to play the game, the short term SP is neither here not there. My opinion, you make an investment choice, set your position, and wait on your plan coming to fruition. And if you are lucky enough (and still feel confident in your choice), take advantage of the dips. If you don't like what you see at any point, move on.....quite simple really.
>>WASA, if you do have a line to MB, can you please tell him to do at least some form of publicity. Their comms really are terrible and IMO it has a negative impact on the SP, which will in turn hit the company when it tries to raise funds.
Tardis I think he is well aware. I think when the newsflow (and not just a single item) is ready it will flow. I think comms will ramp up when the progress ramps up and with a bit of luck so will the shareprice! He won't finance it at the current price and I think the price will move when there is news.
The DFS needs confirmation of BKT funding as a few areas within it require BKT to be funded and only recently have we been given visibility that BKT looks set for finance and now the infrastructure that they will produce as part of that. If there are any material changes in mine design and length of project no reason this can't be worked on now and this BKT centric items added before release. I see DFS H2 24. Current offtake discussions will probably influence any major changes to DFS to terms of market demands and the will to supply them.
Between now and finance there is much to release and PR will be better used promoting the new material released.
I am aware that negotiations are continuous in regards to offtake and finance, you build up relationships and talk interest long before you start putting pen to paper. You will have a good idea of interest and what they offer before you come into the final straight.
AIM, I hope you’re right that the government deal will be done in Q1 but we’ve heard nothing from the company to suggest this.
Also no information from the company on the timescale for the updated DFS - this will surely be necessary for funding negotiations to even commence due to the inflationary changes that have occurred in the last year. The DFS will take a good few months to update.
We are regrettably in the dark on all these things and anything else is merely speculation. Yes, BKT are forging ahead, and it’s a good thing for the neighbouring prospectors, but that doesn’t make it a certainty ACP will advance seamlessly and rapidly.
WASA, if you do have a line to MB, can you please tell him to do at least some form of publicity. Their comms really are terrible and IMO it has a negative impact on the SP, which will in turn hit the company when it tries to raise funds.
I continue to hold
Tardis 16% will not be 6 months from now (Q1 likely) and BKT are max 3 months from funding 2 modules....These alone are huge milestones for us.
I would hope (HOPE) that seeing how far BKT are from finance and therefore albeit guaranteeing the infrastructure that ACP will rely on to benefit the long term prospects of the company, that ACP could feel more comfortable about factoring these items into the DFS update and get ahead of the game. I'd like to think they wouldn't sit doing nothing on the DFS until BKT actually 100% financed....you could easily be creating the document now with the assumptions of BKT being financed. ACP now knows what roads are being built, that hydro power will be piped in from day 1 and they could have access to the rail cargo. Unless they are doing something out of the blue with the production and mine life, pretty easy to start planning for these changes, but not releasing until BKT actually do get the funding so as not to get the DFS wrong if (IF) BKT didn't get funded (you make assumptions and then reality doesn't happen you would have to redo the DFS.....so you can see how BKT must get financed before the updated DFS can be released)....but seriously!!! BKT is getting funded! POSCO and UBRIX want that product. Tanz Gov all over BKT like a rash, they will be supporting tham from every angle, specifically with the infrastructure build out. so DFS could fall sooner than one might think, but defo after BKT get financed.
Also with these items almost in the bag, could ACP now make a move on offtakes feeling the end goal is closer? They must think about the final FEED studies too, maybe get an EPCM contract and build now pay later going on. Something tells me that POSCO has had influence on BKT not getting an EPCM contract, with no chinese offtakes Chinese maybe not interested in helping Korean's and US get the batttery fines?? Rarer things have happened. I think ACP will sell to Chinese traders and not interested in Tier 1 partnerships. Get the Chinese help to build, sell to the Chinese and prove up more resource then package it up and sell the whole thing to them in year 3 or 4....
Thanks Wasa and AIM for the info.
I suspect we’re probably 6 months from any meaningful news.
It’s understandable that investors are frustrated here for two reasons - firstly because 2 years ago financing news was promised in the ‘near future’ and secondly because the BOD refuse to communicate with shareholders. The result is many are 50% down here.
That said, being where we are now, the BOD keep costs very low with no near-term threat of dilution to keep the lights on, and BKT are pressing ahead and showing the way to potential ACP financiers.
So it’s a waiting game. Hopefully holders will be rewarded at the end of the wait.
I am chilled here Amtech.
You are vexed.... Daily and repeatedly....
If you don't like it, and you see no future... The door is always available. Take it.
To continue to whine daily is not doing your mental health any favours. Use your analytical skills to build elsewhere would be my advice.
No more from me..... As sure you will want the last word.... :-s
Always tell a beaten man when they get personal with insults.
I hope and think Rover, that a 3.3 AVG will stand you well in years to come.
;-)
Can imagine Xmas parties are going to be great this year.....everyone you talk to will get to hear about the story that one day a nasty man said the word 'imminent' and your life was forever over....Samaritans probably blocked your number.....Do you ring 999 forty times a day and complain to them?
I can see the green dot hard at the keyboard..... whatever it is that you are repeating ad finitum it has been said why do you have to say it EVERY day, what are your aims of repeating this, what do you want to happen?....Public square flogging of MB and you get to throw rotten tomatoes at him....make you feel better?
Imagine living with you and hearing the same £$%^"%$^" EVERY day....like a stuck record, they probably poured acid in their ears, then over dosed on pills and just to make sue they never had to hear you utter 'imminent' again.....threw themselves to the lions at the local zoo..... all that pain just to get away from you....
SJ,
Just venting a little frustration.
I’m an investor here for the long term. I’m investing to eventually get an income from production.
I’ve been here over two years and added when possible. I’m at an average of 3.3p now having averaged down.
I’m not worried about, the SP as I know it will recover with news.
2023 year end....just in case that was not obvious!....ha
In fact Strummer we are the ones that have doen the hard yards waiting for a change in the graphite macro space and the development of the region....those joining the party now get a steal of an entry and a far reduced timetable. In the next 12 months there will be big moves up here. Gov % is supposed to be locked down in % terms but it is dottign the Is and crosssing the Ts that is taking time. BKT really are int he final stretch of financing now, I'd say they are waiting on Ubrix to pull the string on financing Module 2 from the start. They are in a set timed phase for acceptance, reckon they have 60 days left before BKT can deal with others. Ubrix have said this is the best graphite they have tested in 35 miners! They will want this graphite from Mahenge and to get ahead of the game in US as a leading Anode supplier. But I'm sure they have their own Bankers to get money out of to help pay for BKT module 2.
Once these two things are inplace there is absolutely no reason why this should not move forward at a pace...DFS can be finalised, offtakes secured and finance by year end very doable.
Any assumptions dressed as fact in there aim ?
The question here is would you rather the company went ahead and built the mine BEFORE BKT or AFTER!? Regardless of who said what and when, this is the case now, this is the investment now.
It is really that simple now..... It is in the best interests to everyone invested to build it AFTER.....It's a no brianer of a decision. Those that can't handle the SP are either naive/green investors, in over their heads or stuck traders.
Once BKT get financed there are many things that change in this project and ACP can actually say them as certainties.
POSCO and UBRIX Tier 1 graphite anode producers are using Mahenge Graphite
Tanzania graphite is financable
Infrastructure is built out to following companies' benefit
To the finance community and offtakers this is a positive sign for a graphite miner just up the road. The seal has been broken, the district is opened up with decent ESG credentials.
ACP's finalised DFS can now factor in Capex savings, Opex savings and promote higher ESG. This CANNOT take place until BKT is financed.....ever thought though that if BKT cannot get financed with Tier 1 offtakers outside of China with one of the world's best economics/quality resource ACP would!!!?? Better to wait and watch, see what the market will finance and let the area be opened up and money therefore saved. All people want is a higher SP and would rather anything happened to achieve that regardless of the long term SP and MCAP advantages of waiting.
What news can MB tell you? We are in discussions for Gov %....We know that. He cannot speak about the virtues of BKT building infrastructure until BKT can pay for it! He won't be signing offtakes until he needs to, the market is getting tighter the deals will be competing with each other as they look for supply to tie up.
But what you do know is the mine has great economics and the graphite is great and still in the ground, you have a mining licence and EISA......Now you are waiting for Gov % and BKT to finance so you can move forward with a better project/economics/ESG.
Here is what BKT has been engaging with -
Mr Ndunguru was speaking in Dodoma yesterday during a progress meeting with stakeholders of the Mahenge Graphite mine, which included representatives from the Ministry of Minerals, the Mining Commission, the Office of the Treasury Registrar, Tanzania Revenue Authority (TRA), Tanzania Electric Supply Company Limited (TANESCO), Tanzania-Zambia Railway Authority (TAZARA), Tanzania National Roads Agency (TANROADS) and Tanzania Ports Authority (TPA).
According to Mr Osman, Some of the key facilities and infrastructure which need to be addressed to make the project possible include, power supply to the mine site, building of suitable tarmac roads from Ifakara to the Mine site and rail transport from Ifakara to the Dar-es-Salaam Port through the TAZARA railway network.
Others, he said, are access to land at Ifakara with a railway siding connecting to the TAZARA railway network,
Yep, frustrating Rover. Relative newcomer. Only a year invested.
But am prepared to give them time. Wasa says he has spoken to MB, and he is committed. That's a decent recommend in my book. Plus current situation world wise is exceptional no doubt n don't help.
I have had great luck on AIM. Total s*it, and most all inbetween. But this one feels like a sleeper..... Quite literally.... :-s
Let's see. If you can park cash here for a couple years. Then it may work out well.
If you want a fast 10% this probably isn't your baby....
Am prepared to wait it out for now.
My only frustration is we’ve only had one piece of substantive news in the past 12 months.
I’m still happy to sit tight and have even added more this year.
I just feel the need to get some news.
SJ if they can't develop it they can sell it. It clearly has value (or will clearly have value when the mine a few km up the road is developed) and we have the same resource. How much would we get for it - a lot less than it is worth developed, clearly, and a lot more than the current mcap, also. We'll more than make our money back but - I still think it will get developed. When I asked this question directly to MB he said it is too good a resource/opportunity (not many like it) to sell it so you can make of that what you will. I make of it that they will develop it. GLA
Strikes me personally. That this is a share you either believe that it's got a resource/potentisl that's worth waiting for.
Or conversely you feel that the management isn't up to exploiting the situation (ever), nor working with the tough macro head winds, that they are not likely to have the suss to deal with the African political drags then....
Clearly both views have their supporters. It's perfectly fair to point out (for example), the radio silence with this share, and that's frustrating to all, of course.
Personally. I have acquired a medium sized position (for me), and see it as a (semi) educated punt still tbh. But like all of AIM still a wait and see agreed.
I believe that if/when it starts to move forward though. Then the prices I have bought at, 4s, 3s, 2s & 1s. Will, in a couple of years look a very decent investing range.
If on the other hand, and like the large majority of AIM "wishing" companies. They aren't up to it.... Then it will turn out a bum steer. I will have to accept that.
I can't tell as yet tbh. But I am at least considering now, that if this fails it won't be for the usual AIM "lifestyle" BOD to upgrade their Porsche'. Nor for I think dishonestly juggling the books as I have also experienced.
That's just my take, and why I remain invested, and adding a little as and when down at these price ranges.
The regular negative posts here I find a little odd. If people have so little faith in the current line management. Then by all means say it. It's a free bulliten board. But if there really is nothing positive to this one. Why not justmove on?
Or at least await a worthwhile piece of news to vent your spleen.... Or maybe even after that, admit it's got some legs.
Some "investors" seem to have too much time on their hands, that if they have so little confidence here. Would surely be better spent trying to make some monies elsewhere.
Just my thoughts.
So basically the Tanz Gov and BKT are ‘driving this forward’ but remember ‘this is Africa’ so whatever is stated time wise double it at minimum. ACP on the other hand are ‘fast tracking’ their project to production and is at a ‘exciting time of development’ lasting the last 2 years and will again ‘imminently’ be on the ‘cusp of a transformation’ for a long time yet. Check out their non compliant website for more information, just remember ‘things change’ so that information might come across as ‘misleading the market’ . Watch out for more comments from them in the same vain in the distance future if they fix the communication lines between Paterson Resources and the London PO Box.
Tardis BKT just had a meeting with the top dogs across infrastructure the other day. The Gov being part of Faru are keen to help bring it to production and are throwing all the countries infrastructure groups at the project.
https://twitter.com/BlackRockMining/status/1594899771424399361
This includes paved highways to the north, upgraded higher voltage power lines linking to a new substation and railway sidings. These are all items that directly benefit ACP. ACP save on road paving, they should get direct electricity from stage 1 now instead of phase 2 and can benefit from rail travel instead of all by road.
There is Capex saving on roads, there is opex savings and ESG increase on electrical power use early on and rail use. Power currently has a 40% hydro blend but with a new hydro dam due for completion the hydro blend will increase.
https://twitter.com/aosmantz/status/1587850272365330441 - CEO looking at new sub station being built they will link to.
https://twitter.com/aosmantz/status/1597597766393397248 - CEO just hanging around the railway that the sidings will use
Blackrock and the Gov are driving forward with the setting up of a grpahite district with roads, hydro power and railways access...... best to let that get financed than you know where you stand in what you have to build and what upgraded infrastructure you can now use. Places ACP long term in a far better place.
BKT could probably have completed finance by now but again they have gone for a bigger infrastruture development with the Gov and secondly they are now waiting on Ubrix to sign off on helping them build stage 2 from the start. This changes the dynamic of the finance deal. It is very common for first past the post to develop the region and everyone else benefits, locals/country and any new miners. Look at Para region in Brazil, Vale did most of the hard yards, HZM can use the railroad and tap into the electrical infrastructure, ACP will do the same......just a pity BKT is still trying to complete all this.
All the while the market for graphite, price and desire for deals increases which is better long term too as we will no doubt strike better offtake and finance deals than even just a year ago. It is hard but one must learn to accept the wait has long term gains over short term SP pain.....however anyone new to the share is getting an f'ing steal now!
Hi Tardis I think there will be more components than just debt as they have 3 chinese partners in phase 1 and now Urbix in phase 2 build in parallel involved I imagine mix of offtake possibly equity and then debt. Their capex is up on the initial estimates plus they are building two phases in parallel so they need to raise a lot of money. The composition of the finance deal will give us clues as to how Armadale can finance our build. So their capex is c. $180m+ and ours from dfs stage was $40m it is reasonable to expect ours is now a bit higher due to inflation but they are going for a bigger mine from the outset (each phase was bigger tonnage than our phase 1).
Timings - from the De Vries interview I think bkt mine build is 18 months so if we assume they start build in q1 2023 and finish q3 2024 and start producing then infrastructure has to be in place and some of it e.g. access roads should be in early to enable proper site access.
What that means for us I am not sure but if bkt got financed and started building in q1 2023 I would hope we could be financed say 6 months later and benefit from their infrastructure and be completing our build at a similar end date (with a shorter and simpler mine build). This would look like elements of finance package coming together in h1 2023 and gov% agreed then.
There will be a strong demand driver to getting these mines built that is what I am hoping and a strong geographical link with a near neighbour which is the first graphite mine to be developed in Tanzania will be a huge asset to getting a deal with financiers. I think ACP is waiting on more than just infrastructure in place - if financiers are prepared to finance $180m capex spend, same jurisdiction same commodity in same area it has to be easier to get a $40m finance package away on good terms. We will see - frustrating as the lack of progress is it is also an opportunity I think. Gla
Hi Wasa,
Re. the bloackrock deal you refer to, is that a financing deal? Debt financing?
Do you know Blackrock’s timescale on bring road and electricity to the area?
Thanks
Hi CleverThoughts I've had some contact with MB (a couple of calls in the last 6 months) but nothing material and nothing that isn't already known - that they are talking to the gov on the free carry % and on graphite fundamentals there is money for graphite development certainly the Chinese are keen and obviously recently we had Urbix on BKT.
He can't say as much but my feeling (which I've posted here before) is they're waiting for BKT to advance - I know this is AIMToDeaths view also. It makes sense (in many ways - both on cost and also on risk).
Right now there's only 1 thing I am watching for in December which is BKT sign their deal. Rumours were November/December but I don't have any solid source just what I read here and there.
In the meantime despite the opaque market it is obviously deficit is looming and prices are rising. The recent article by Credit Suisse highlighting Tanzania as an area yet to be developed are all positive and pointing in the right direction. What we have to remember is when all the ducks are lined up this mine can be built in a year (or less) and that's not a long time to wait. Those are just my 2 pence I would rather the right outcome and I have time to wait for others it's different I get it. GLA