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It be a bit early in the yeareth for ants OTH and too chillyeth anyways, but when old Piler gets sick of -em he just blasteths them with a bit of that Dave Craig chappie !
Looks like she be a risin'...
Ok Dan “new to the game” who has previously picked up tips from other LSE boards. Great place to do your research from a load of puffed up sycophants, although bwana seems ok. What advice did you get from the other boards? “Go to ACP” was it?
Fill your boots i have
Just to say thanks for the background advice on Kabunga.
Plan to buy in next week.
Thanks Matl - got a bit lucky (as I pointed out with the sellers) so I bought way lower than I should have had the opportunity to do so - really I should have ended up with half the shares. But I also took the risk when nobody else was taking it. I did invest a lot - in the end around £800k - most of my assets having sold my house - taken some profit since - but I'm holding to 2025+ for £10m+ exit (unless company sells sooner). With Armadale I think we get jam hopefully sooner as Bwana says probably one or two years earlier perhaps. I have less invested here as Horizonte remains my main play.
Basically the way I see it the way to get rich is - identify an opportunity / mismatch of price in the market. But be confident in the directors - that's really important - look at track record. I have spoken to Matt Bull here before I upped my stake. Then buy over a prolonged time when everyone else is buying elsewhere.
I've never bought anything at the original low point - the 1p area here, or the 1p area on Horizonte. But you don't need to. Actually I think the perfect point to buy is on the cusp of the lifecycle transition around the point where it is derisked (has lincence) but before financing. If you buy pre-financing you are taking a chance that financing terms will play out well. I am very confident this will get financed and on really good terms. With Horizonte we got slightly unlucky - Covid came at a bad time and it's a huge project financing got kicked back and we had a bit of extra dilution. You have to take it on the chin - Covid was a bit of a black swan event.
Anyway GLA I'll shut up with off topic stuff but there are parallels with the two companies, one made me a lot of paper wealth, the other here is going to do the same I think.
Well done on Horizonte Wasa!
It really does seem the market is missing something here. The EISA was a big milestone and I feel much more comfortable now in this investment with that out of the way and will be trying to increase my holding further before the ML comes.
Bwana - repeating a bit a post a couple of weeks ago but Kabunga constantly selling (if the RNS is accurate over 17 months no less!) his holding has created an artificially low shareprice for stage of progress. This also now acts as a natural drag as PIs and other potentially interested investors look at share price history (we all guilty of this) and not just NPV/IRR and the basis of valuation. To a large extent the mcap of ACP is driven by the market mentality and a large seller like this over a long period of time can significantly affect that.
We saw it on Horizonte - when the large sellers clear (there it was City Financial, JP Morgan, and Richard Griffiths - probably best part of 18 months of constant selling) it achieved a much more realistic (still cheap IMHO) valuation and rerated something like 4x. I'm not saying that will immediately happen here when Kabunga exits stage left, but, in conjunction with news, the move could be significant and 4p/5p even 6p will hopefully be toast and like many are predicting, double figures for us.
To some extent the share price ahead will depend on what kind of newsflow we get after licence lands - because those here for a long time will have a decision to make do they sell down the first rerate event or hold for the real gravy. I know many are here for mine build/production and the eventual rerate to NPV levels but without a doubt there will be profit taking/slicing. Hopefully to be replaced with new investors who see the potential when fully de-risked - possibly at finance complete stage.
Without a doubt a huge opportunity and one that doesn't come along often - £25m mcap for a $500m+ NPV (potentially, depending on eventual pricing of the product). Horizonte was similar when I invested - £40mcap for a $700m + NPV (ignoring Vermelho). I wouldn't have ever believed market can misprice assets and projects like this as much - if I wasn't 7 figures up on Horizonte. Patience is all that's needed here because value will out.
GLA
One thing in march the company release rns stating since oct to feb, Kabunga have offloaded 6% of company shares.
Why didnt he inform the mkt in timely manner?
It does appear he has or nearly offloaded, its best not to have large shareholders like this.
Watching this share with interest as i truly believe the tide has changed and things moving quicker.
"replaced by some serious big hitters"...b..dy spellcheck.
Dan-Kabunga is a Perth based Tanzanian mining investor and in fairness was pretty instrumental in bringing us Mahenge.He owned 10.4% of ACP, plus warrants as Jim shown us below. However, one of his other investments is Volt which has got into trouble(I am not sure of the exact details of Volts problems-if someone else can explain that would be useful),hence he has been selling down his ACP position (known on here as Kabuggering us all!!) over the last 6 months and put an effective ceiling of 5p on the share price.Please note both his Board reps-Steve Mahede and Amne Suedi have also gone and we hope will be related by some serious big hittersWe believe he has now gone or nearly gone, the ESIA is issued and the ML imminent, which will lead to a pretty fast double from here.The stock is incredibly cheap on an NPV and IRR basis, there are lots of near term catalysts and the "herd" is yet to arrive.Plus we have some very good posters here so you will be well informed if you choose to invest.
First time poster and must admit new to the game, having just started investing in shares.
Only been following this company for the last week or so but seems interesting.
Can anyone explain who Kabunga is, what’s his existing or historical relationship to the company and importantly, as past threads suggest, any guesses as to why he’s selling off shares ? when this companies future looks potentially promising?
I’ve previously picked up some good tips from LSE forum chat groups. Any feedback would be most appreciated.