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Patience, this is Africa, good day to top up, waiting for better environment, the president died, separate RNS looking forward. It seems there’s a lot on here now just making up excuses for the jam tomorrow that’s becoming the only thing this BOD are good at. Over 12% down on results day doesn’t have an excuse, it just means the market is disappointed with the RNS, the progress, no forward looking statement, that all lays at the feet of the part time management dragging their knuckles simple as.
Wasa I admire your positivity but honestly getting a little tired of hearing the same thing. It’s okay to let people feel disappointed in fact annoyed too with how slow this is progressing. I’ve been here for a few years now and it’s the same Parrot talk which is so draining.
I believe acp will payback handsomely but at the moment I’m so p***ed off with this mornings RNS. Why did they release it? There’s nothing new. Nothing of quality to report. I think MB should be asked to resign and someone more proactive take place. Is a sleeping duck at the wheel. He needs a stick up his backside to get his act together. The more people keep making excuses for his slug paced actions the more he thinks he can carry on. We’ve all invested with hard earned money and are entitled to his accountability.
Glengarth - indeed agreed, but this was the backward looking RNS. I am very much hoping for a forward looking RNS anytime soon - sooner the better :) Lots could have happened that we don't know about.
Notwithstanding and I did put this on another post the other day - I have realigned expectation on ALL my investments to hold till production and accept that production may happen later than I expect also - this is simply a fact I have learned on these AIM juniors. If you accept that it becomes less about doubling your money in 6-12 months time on certainties and more investing in the evolving EV/commodities space on the longer term in companies that can make steady (not necessarily stunning fast) progress towards the goal. Then you weigh up your expected multiples by the number of years you think it *might* take to get there and figure out your cost/benefit taking into consideration risk.
One thing I know - the graphite space is hotting up, and MB knows this and wants to strike 'while the iron is hot' on financing etc. See the inbound interest on Blackrock in the interview - they are getting enquiries they were not getting 12 months ago apparently from the kinds of players who were not in the space 12 months ago.
We will learn more in the weeks ahead I expect. The initial timeframe of my expectation - which was we would be financed during Q1 and start building the mine when the rainy season finished (around now) is clearly out the window. I can wait an extra year if needs be, perhaps others can't, I am invested for the long haul anyway and the deficits in the key commodities ahead mainly my PF targets the second half of this decade.
Cash position - is strong - at the low burn rate MB can get the deal right rather than rush it which is good. Definitely needs some news before the September warrants as of course there is a risk they won't convert if the SP is subdued as it is now. GLA
Wasa, i'm afraid I don't agree with the optimism in your projected timeframe, and increasingly don't see any construction starting here this year, with it currently impossible to say if construction would start in H1 2023, or H2 of 2023.
As you know qualification of graphite material takes time - I see no progress there in the RNS. Yes it's been shown by "testing completed with positive results received confirming a premium quality high purity graphite concentrate, also suitable for the battery anode market" but the RNS talks about marketing the material and project. In the graphite market the material itself normally undergoes qualifying tests with the individual end-users for offtakes/sales agreements for their respective end goals rather than taking a blanket statement such as the above at face value. I see none of that sort of qualification happening currently and previous non-binding agreement seem to no longer exist, suggesting they have lapsed?
Without agreed sales certainties there will be no financing - why would anyone finance anything without knowing the end product has willing buyers of material they have qualified? The graphite industry is opaque and this is a fundamental requirement and I have not seen anything to suggest ore is being extracted from Mahenge and sent to potential customers for their qualification. Indeed, when referencing BKT it's important to note how long they took to qualify their product with POSCO to reach a binding agreement: over 2 years - and that is for a lot of material and not even the entire production of their initial planned output which they are still yet to agree buyers for it appears.
While i'm still bullish on ACP with the hope MB is actually working towards an end goal, I think the timeframe/goalposts need adjusting, and investors here need patience. It was not that long ago that people were suggesting construction would have started by the end of Q1 this year, i.e. be underway now. I reiterate that construction will not happen without finance, and it seems there is still a long schedule of work to go before any finance will be received for that purpose.
ATB, GLA.
Also it's Africa. Things happen slower than elsewhere. But the chap on the blackrock interview says its one of the best jurisdictions in Africa he has worked in now - there is real government support and impetus to get these projects off the ground. They understand that with the free carry + tax they have around a 50% real stake in these project so the govt (plus the jobs it creates).
The way I look at it if you COP is $400 and your income is $1300/t call it $1k/t GP and you give half of that back to Tanzania. 60ktpa (initial Armadale production) at $500/t net profit gives you $30m revenue. Say the mine costs $50m to build (including inflation) capex payback is 1.5 years. That's bloody stunning and after that expansion to 1m tonnes+ in year 4 (by which time hopefully graphite even more in demand with higher pricing) this is cash cow generating more FCF per year than the current mcap. GLA
Disappointed yet not surprised like most here, nothing we haven't already known for months/years. However I have to agree with AIM in that the juicier news including plans for the future must be imminent now and will carry more weight in a separate update... optimistic that we'll get another RNS within the next few weeks (although I'm not going to hold my breath!) GLA
Strummer - yes it's that - what happened last year and only a little more (cash position now). Basically - this company:
- last year got the mining licence(s) and proved the viability of the product
- this year will secure finance and start building the mine
Is that good progress over a 2 year period (of course the mining application went in 2020) - probably not bad considering - the president passed away - Covid happened.
Clearly if people don't believe the second set of things will happen this year/ever then it isn't a good investment and they should sell.
I would urge anyone to watch the Blackrock interview (was linked here I think? I picked it up on twitter). Very clear on the demand side, how to secure the funding, and what order you have to do things to get the project progressed. Hopefully MB/Armadale can follow suit, at least they can watch and learn from any mistakes or challenges Blackrock face if following in their footsteps. GLA
End of Year reports are pure historical facts, I wouls expect a different RNS for future plans/updates
Uneventful since Oct 21 to now perhaps but the Fin Yr was eventful.
ACP is no longer, drilling, getting reports etc the busy RNS times as they explore/ This stage RNS' are few and far between but whenthey come will be more value accretive and end game stuff.
Didn't read much in the way of the plans going forward though Wasa. Assume we will have to wait for that. Market was underwhelmed clearly.
I have patience as you know. So can wait. But just be nice to see some briefing from the top here on the go forward this year.... We won't get lots of new investors without a bit more dynamism from the top IMO.
confirmed natural flake graphite from Mahenge graphite project as a premium quality product with the exceptionally high purity and characteristics required for use in lithium-ion batteries
Environmental and Social Impact Assessment ('ESIA') was formally granted
formal confirmation and receipt of the Mining Licence (ML/007744/2020)
completed with positive results received confirming a premium quality high purity graphite concentrate, also suitable for the battery anode market
All permits licences granted, confirmed suitable for EV, highest purity. If that's an uneventful year you're reading a different RNS to the one I'm reading. Confirms the viability and economics of the project.
Read the RNS and reread it.....
Seems a bland summary of a pretty uneventful year, devoid on any real meat for now & going forwards....
I can only assume that either there will be something more worthwhile coming soon on this year's plans and progress. Or the CEO is hoping to send the wavering types running so he can further increase his personal holding at the reduced prices.
Many have complained on here about the lack of Comms. If this is what's in the past year summary. Perhaps people have a point.
From the smatering of buying after the so predictable MM response. There are still good buying ops here. But would be nice to see a little actual material progress though to inspire a bit of new interest surely....
Todays RNS was not "The Big One " ... steady as she goes. The company has its' mining licence and ,for me, importantly the management ( Bull) holds a significant ( 9% plus ) position in the company. Thus he is aligned to LTH interests in ultimatley getting into production or deriving significant value from an asset sale. Can't see anything today that says they arenot still headed down that path so will hold patiently knowing newsflow will be sparse