Armadale Capital Share Chat (ACP)

@ wasarunner.
You claim to speak to MB? I have no reason to doubt you.
But i did ask you to speak to him and release a "we know of no reason for the price decline" RNS.
You have yet to respond.
I would assume that that your dialogue with Matt Bull makes you an insider.
If that is the case, can you please let us know here.
And if you can't, why are on earth are you saying (not alluding to) that you have spoken to the great man?
I think you're talking a load of ******.
Prove me wrong and get some of your "friends and family" to donate their shares to you. Just so it will take you over the 3% reporting threshold. Lets see your holding.
Forgive me if i'm wrong, but i see no reason why anyone would post that they speak to Matt Bull, when they will clearly be asked questions about it.
Basically, i think you're a liar. But please prove me wrong and i will apologise.

I agree devil. You produce the dfs assuming you have to pay the costs. If events overtake you (by being slow in this case) then when the project takes advantage of roads (for instance) that others have built in the meantime you get a positive variance on your forecast infrastructure costs which results in a more profitable project measured against the budget

Amtech It's pretty obvious that them costs would of been included in the DFS, Blackrock should be completing whole finance package soon and cracking on with production. I think people are just suggesting that waiting for them to start would be beneficially to us. For things like road or able to save on equipment/machinery that is already in the area.

But this have been used to justify slow moving pace we are now 310 days since ML we need some updates and some new investors, it doesn't take much to move the share price at all.

Wasa, any idea when points 1) and 2) might be expected to complete?

Amyech,

Could you show me which part of the DFS is misleading?

Because I've only seen the highlights.

If you're referring to the total Capex, the entire purpose of it is to be able to take it to a bank/lender and have them satisfied the money will build it.

It's also to tell ACP how much each component will cost them.

If it satisfies that, I fail to see how it's misleading?

You need to bare in mind we only received the highlights of the DFS, as opposed to the full DFS document itself. I admit it was something I found a little annoying, as it's a document I generally do enjoy reading.

Pretty much every mine needs some sort of access road built. There's nothing different here.

Whether BKT are happy with it or not is irrelevant. It's a long known consensus that these road have to offer public use - Especially as they can connect incredibly rural communities with cities they wouldn't otherwise have access to.

Everyone (aside those with liquidity) is frustrated with these price levels, but patience is still key here.

More or less every Junior is following the same chart pattern as this is a market-wide issue. Our newsflow will come.

At this stage you need stomach, not brains.

What else can they do they need the road? I assumed the various miners in the area might do a deal to share cost but apparently a better strategy is to wait for your neighbour to build it for you.

I bet BKT will be very pleased that everyone will be using their road for free.

He told me, I don't know how distributed his network is but assume these are mostly in Oz. I'm sure that number changes but his personal holding is of course declared.
I hold now just a fraction under 4% when I include family and 2.7% individually. Didn't realise my personal holding was so much I've never done a TR1 before might be an opportunity if it stays cheap!

Can’t see where it say MB family and friends hold 25% wasa. I can see that they need the web site updating though, sure it has to be keep up to date every 6 months. Maybe they’ve forget there’s a company here.

or is it just me? 8%+ looks good but from a net £9,000 ish increase. I just don't understand what's happening here.

Once BKT secure their funding deal, they'll commence pre-construction works, and the first thing is clearing any top-soil, and building an access road.

The road will come sooner rather than later as it's particularly important to get heavy machinery to the site.

It's relatively obvious that others in the area (including ACP) will be using this road. I believe Ecograph are likely to, too.

A part of me feels the lack of news we've had has actually been a blessing in disguise.

Nothing to do with MB, but just pure luck.

Looking at the likes of HZM, it's the lowest it's been since COVID hit.

BKT can basically erase a years worth of SP growth. They're also very unlikely to rocket up over their financing deal because they've already had a large run-up, and pre-construction tends to be the lowest ebb of the Lassonde Curve.

Whereas this has been dog sh*t (in terms of SP) for well over a year, it still has huge potential to move.

Aside from the scared liquidity sellers, there aren't any sellers below 5p here. It just needs the buying volume (news related) to start moving up.

We know what we're waiting for:

1. Tanzanian Free Carry agreement. I'd be very surprised to see this above 16%.

2. Updated DFS. The above percentage would need to be plugged into it, which would explain the delay.

3. Off-takes. Graphite may not be a homogenous product, but those differences can be mitigated when your mine is next door to another.

4. FEED Phase 2. These things tend to be paid for on a contractual basis. The more you pay, the more resources Xinhai allocate, and the faster the work gets done. I don't imagine there being a rush here, which is why it has taken so long.

5. Financing. Will this be a problem? No. Why? Because lenders in the resources space look at the demand of the commodity. Graphite demand is sky-rocketing, and supply is simply not there. The IRR of the project is at such a grade that ACP can afford a higher interest rate whilst paying the loan back faster.

Now, nothing is perfect. We know the wait has been dehabilitating for some, and the comms have been atrocious.

But it's also why Peter Lynch says it's not about having brains, but about having a stomach.

If the project remains on track (albeit slow), and material news is not negative - Why would you sell other than the sight of a red portfolio?

It's more than possible this slips further, but Juniors have been the first to go in this market. Nobody saw that coming, but it's the well positioned projects that'll likely be the first to recover.

We're lucky to be in a position to know precisely what we're waiting for, and now it's just a question of waiting for it.

A lot of us got excited when the mining licence was approved, but it's our own faults for investing on the back of hype, and not DCA in.

Now we're at the lowest it's been in years, and suddenly it's a bad investment?

Not at all.

The Board are here for productio

Agree, hence I positioned in 3 and one is gold which is normally anti cyclic. Not saying at all that it is without risk but I would be more worried if a. Original capex wasn't $40m (still a decent chunk, but its not $400m) and mb and family and friends didn't hold 25%. The former means its financeable the latter means he doesn't want to dilute much if he can help it. But yes agree many bod's don't care about pi's so you have to make your own luck in this game.

The fact graphite will be big in the next few years is why I am here. And there should be a geo political fight over commodities it has already started with oil, for now, which will drive prices up. The macro is good for commodities almost with/without recession, especially in 'green' materials. What else to invest in because you sure as hell don't want to hold £s (probably not property either, at least short term). China will want to continue resource monopoly too and we are likely to get a deal with Chinese company.

Reality is Armadale could be a $bn asset current mcap £15m so you need to make a judgement as to the probability that it will materialise as not all juniors go on to fulfil their potential (indeed most don't?)

Big gamble on AIM continually buying and classing it as an opportunity every time the sp drops wasa, risk/reward I suppose. A lot more risk than reward though when you see how many don’t make it on this market. I never like to get overweight in any one stock as the cards are stacked against pi’s. As you say ‘if the company delivers’ otherwise this opportunistic low sp becomes a distance high sp that it will never get back to generally through dilution then consolation etc etc more often than not.

We should also benefit from following a path already cut. The Tanzanian govt agreement at 16% worth our bear neighbor should make it easier for us to get agreement without the costs. Also we should benefit from any infrastructure built by our neighbours So it’s not all bad. But comms is ****e I agree

Possibly but that created opportunity for PIs to add at sub-par valuations (and by sub par I mean for e.g. compare to BKT). We had a parallel situation with Horizonte where City Financial, then Richard Griffiths then Morgan Stanley sold up. I bought shares all along the way (not all the shares obvoiusly) as I have done here with KB selling. If the company eventually delivers, you have to see this as an opportunity and if you come into money gradually, as I have, then elongated buy window is what you want. Appreciate we all (including me) want the mine bulit sooner than later but I owe both KB and MB if this now goes ahead and gets build, the former for the lower entry, the latter for the eventual delivery.
In terms of timescales it hasn't been plain sailing for any junior miner in the last couple of years and in Tanzania we have seen president change with Covid.

So while finance was cheap and inflation low, would MB not have made money from this anyway if the mine was built or under construction now rather than waiting. The problem he had to the detriment of PI shareholders was his buddy AK wanting to sell without collapsing the sp to zilch, dragging it out so that he could sell the rises. Don't think it had anything to do with much else to be honest.

Assuming all is well, the cash raised in 2021 will pay for the professional mining consultants to prepare the documentation needed to invite tenders and to raise the $50M+ for the project. Such guys cannot be taken off a shelf, their lead time could be months, their delivery period could be months. It would be nice to know that this is the case, of course. Not the time to sell just yet IMHO.

And in case this isn't obvoius. Armadale are applying for the extra exploration licences to facilitate a $$$ sale above the value of the current proven resource - otherwise why would a junior spend money on exploratoin when it already has sufficient proven resource to develop. It's obvious really. They build the (first) mine, prove additional resource sell (probably to the Chinese probably people they are talking to right now). Guesswork on my part but join the dots. Huge demand for Graphite coming. GLA

Amtech just to qualify with an example from my investments: Jeremy Martin was appointed CEO of Horizonte in 2010 and have developed the asset(s) since that date and hope to have a mine built end 2023 early 2024. The mine isn't in Africa so no Africa factor. They strongly (the BOD of Horizonte) believe it is a chance of a lifetime also - enough so that the CEO has stayed 14 years (albeit on a decent salary), proven the resource, and secured $630m funding. The time for nickel is right now +/- 5 years. The time for Graphite is righ now +/- 5 years. Matt Bull knows this Jeremey Martin knows this, what the example above shows is -> the outcome takes time, in the case of Horizonte probably 14-15 years since CEO joined to when it gets sold. Very different companies, JM is very well remunerated for his effors, MB will be renumerated when his 10% delivers his $$$. Personally expect both companies to sell eventually, perhaps in the same timeframes. But saying these things don't take time or take forever -> in the case of a quantum shift of demand for a particular commodity/commodities - it is really true that this happens once in a lifetime. By the time people figure out high grade nickel/graphite is in demand and scarce all the companies like Horizonte and Armadale will have been sold to the highest bidder. NOW is the time to be invested, whatever our frustrations, and always given that you trust the BOD to deliver. GLA

I always sell at the bottom and I haven’t sold yet lol

Looks like I sold at the bottom :(

Thing is they seem to be concentrating more on Paterson, they can’t hide behind ‘this is Africa’ BS. It’s taken far to long for that, phase 2 feed studies ain’t getting done in Africa, neither is the financing.

I take your point on Matt being in with a low average and a cheap take over could happen. Share price right now is a joke one £10k buy now 8% up ??

Why would AK (part of GAT) sell to ACP in the 1st place if the site was so promising? So that MB and others could make a lot of money through ACP warrants perhaps? Just wondering.